Fascinating article on replacement theory from a couple of days ago
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/01/union-members-decide-next-labour-leadership-starmer-streeting-burnham
Plus how guarded Labour are on giving latest membership numbers.
Survation did some research last Autumn suggesting Burham and Rayner well ahead of Starmer, whereas Streeting and Milliband ahead of him but within the margin of error. Whilst Phillipson , Powell and Mahmood would all lose in a head to head.
Their research based though on Labour members. As the linked article sets out quite who makes up the electorate for a Labour leadership contest is……unclear. That’s a nice diplomatic word.
now a budget and more u-turns since that research carried out so the picture may now differ. I’d imagine bond market best bud (not) Burnham would be frontrunner (to the cliff edge) were he actually an MP. Which of course he isn’t.