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Weather

Storm discussions week beginning 12th Dec

217 replies

OhYouBadBadReindeer · 10/12/2011 23:03

apologies if you've seen this info on a couple of threads but this week does look rather concerning weather wise - with the possible for repeats of more severe gales and I think it would be helpful for people to have an idea of what may be coming up.

It is looking a pretty concerning scenario this week: The storm system Monday/Tuesday looks potent for first the SW and then the north. Then Friday. A long way off but at the moment the storm looks stronger than last weeks. At the moment Scotland looks most at risk but the track is still uncertain. All I can say is be prepared and if your property has suffered damage then I would do your utmost to effect repairs asap.

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Report

fannybaws · 11/12/2011 20:31

Will keep a very close eye on this thread.
I am supposed to be driving from Scotland to on Thursday with DS and back up again on Saturday.
Don't fancy it at all if very windy.

MarriedToTheGrinch · 11/12/2011 20:38

just marking my place. I'm in Merseyside and right on the coast so am a little nervous.

TheRepublicOfDreams · 11/12/2011 21:01

How so you think east anglia will fare? We were yellow, but that seems to have backed off a bit ?

OhYouBadBadReindeer · 11/12/2011 21:29

I think that if you are close to the coast it could be quite nasty late Monday night. Inland it will still be probably very blowy gusts 50mph+

Will be interesting to look at the models in the morning.....

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OhYouBadBadReindeer · 11/12/2011 21:29

(sorry, that was to Republic)

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blackeyedsanta · 12/12/2011 00:06

the french maps (oybbr linked earrlier^^) have changed since this morning. the worst weather looks like it is over france now, and cornwall on thursday evening. it has gone purple which is top of the scale.

TheHumancatapult · 12/12/2011 05:13

hmm im moving from Weds into the weekend and am over by stanstead airport im hoping that being inland should protect us from the worse and also need to travel to Cambridge on tuesday

OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 07:04

updated warnings

Question is - where did the uk go Thurs/Fri!?

Off to look at the models.....

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OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 07:17

Looking really complicated now! GFS has the first storm split into a two centered low effectively elongating the system. UKMO - not going for such a complicated idea but first the far SE snd then the NW getting severer gales from that outlook.

Then Thursday is very strange with a multicentered low or chain of lows stretching north. The resulting storm has a centre over the Midlands(hence the max wind speeds being through France as blackeyeds says) and another centre over Scotland. Result would be gales for all, stormy through the SW and France.However ECMWF goes for a single low pressure thurs/fri - with a resulting strong storm - severe gales for the south and France from that scenario.

So, I guess the models are struggling.....

Will be very interesting to see what the next run brings....

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HowToLookGoodGlaikit · 12/12/2011 07:50

Is there still a chance it will all just peter out, and not be so bad after all?

OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 07:52

Glaikit - it is possible that you won't be in the firing lines at all. I don't think that nothing will happen - all of the models show something, but they are really struggling with the complex conditions.

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OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 08:08

ok, off now will update later.

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HollyGhost · 12/12/2011 09:42

Thank you for this BadBad, I never have anything to contribute to these threads, but enjoy lurking.

pepperrabbit · 12/12/2011 12:30

I've hopped over here after looking at the BBC forecast for tomorrow - the school run has black clouds, lightening and sunshine (NE Hampshire)
Guess we should just be prepared for anything and everything!

OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 13:29

you are welcome Holly :)

Things are looking more positive this afternoon :) For this evening and tomorrow it will generally be windy with gales in the far SE (perhaps severe here) and for the NW. Some very heavy rain overnight and then cooling down over Wales, northern england and Scotland leading to problems with ice.

Thursday - Friday. Well, tbh the models are very confused with different models producing different scenarios. There is even the possibility of almost no storm at all. It is too early to downgrade the warnings, because we just don't know what will happen. However it is likely that most of Scotland will escape fairly unscathed from the wind but instead snow could become the problem and it is quite likely that southern England will see the worst of any strong winds.

So, basically - not much of a forecast really! updated met office warnings

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whenPaschagotstuckupthechimney · 12/12/2011 13:36

Hmm, I'm in the far SE, not looking too pleasant overnight tonight.

mankyscotslass · 12/12/2011 13:36

Met office warninga for snow Wednesday in my area.

What do you reckon OYBBR?

OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 13:37

Pascha - could be a bit of a sleepless night for you I'm afraid.

Interestingly - perusing some of the weather forums some people are interpreting the latest models outputs as having the potential to be very nasty friday in the south. So just a reminder to people - I am only an amateur - please dont make decisions that may affect your safety on the basis of my forecast discussions. Use official channels like the met office for that.

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OhYouBadBadReindeer · 12/12/2011 13:38

I think that the met office are pretty spot on with that manky. Sorry - struggling to keep up with whats going on weather wise. I thought it was bad last year with the snow - this year its storm systems, heavy rain and snow to try and look out for!

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mankyscotslass · 12/12/2011 13:45

Mother nature likes to keep us on our toes!

Snow shovel at the ready!

whenPaschagotstuckupthechimney · 12/12/2011 13:54

The shed roof has only just been bodged repaired from last week's wind.

Kveta · 12/12/2011 13:56

this looks 'interesting'! I'm also near Stansted, so am hoping we are protected by being inland. Fingers crossed. Good luck with your move catapult :)

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ChickensThinkYouCanGetStuffed · 12/12/2011 13:59

Ooh. Watching this. I'm pretty much in the centre of England, so could do with all bad weather buggering off, tbh.

lubeybaublely · 12/12/2011 14:05

www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfs/vent-rafales/3h.htm wind chart at the bottom seems to be suggesting up to 90kph gusts for 10pm tonight where I am east midlands...

But weather .co.uk just says heavy rain, doesn't mention wind

lubeybaublely · 12/12/2011 14:06

www.meteociel.com/modeles/gfs/vent-rafales/3h.htm oops

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