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Brexit

Westministenders: The weasel DIDN'T die in a ditch

975 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 28/10/2019 11:59

The EU has decided to grant the UK's request for an extension until 31 January.

This will be a "flextension",
i.e. if the WA is approved by the UK and EU Parliaments before that date, then we will leave earlier.

and .... despite all his blustering promises, the weasel BJ lives on,
preening his whiskers in self-love.

The more gullible Brexiters haven't yet twigged that he lies and lies.
And lies....

Meanwhile, another attempt by the UK to decide what to do:

From 2:30 pm today, MPs will debate whether to allow a GE on 12 December

This is a govt motion under the FTPA, which means BJ requires the votes of ⅔ of all MPs - that's 434

Hence he would need Labour support.

BJ's condition for a GE on this date is that MPs agree to pass the WA / WAB by 7 November,
which is the last day before Parliament would be automatically dissolved before the GE.

Corbyn said he'll only agree to a GE if BJ takes No Deal off the table.
This cannot be made legally binding, but as noone would take the word of a lying weasel, it is difficult for this condition to be satisfied.

Polls suggest that a GE after Brexit would be likely to give the Tories significantly more votes & seats than a GE before.
Both Labour & Tory want to game GE timing to their advantage.

Also, most Labour MPs are opposed to a GE after Brexit, for fear of losing the votes of millions of angry Labour Remainers - and their own seats.

A few on the Labour left do want a GE asap,
but Nick Brown, Labour’s chief whip, has warned Corbyn that many MPs would disobey orders to vote for 12 December.

Hence, BJ is expected to lose yet another HoC vote.
If so, reports suggest that the Cabinet are split over what to do next:

Some ministers, e.g. Gavin Williamson, want to agree to the SNP / LDem proposal to hold a GE on 9 December.

This would be via an amendment to the FTPA or a separate 1-line Act
and hence would require only a simple majority of MPs present
It would also be the last chance logistically for a GE before mid-February.
BUT
would require BJ to abandon attempts to pass the WAB before this.

Also, such a bill would be amendable and Tories fear the type of amendments could be added
e.g. a CU, or votes for 16-year-olds.

Hence other ministers and the Tory chairman James Cleverley oppose this idea.

It is unknown how BJ will decide.
His record is of aggressive bluster, then caving in at the last moment, while pretending he has won.

The EU have saved our bacon yet again, but may be running out of eye rolls "Please don't waste this time"

OP posts:
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Danetobe · 28/10/2019 15:57

I hope the extensions just keep coming. Hopefully longer and longer ones. Eventually coming to an agreement to disagree. A 'GFA', but without violence.

TheMShip · 28/10/2019 16:02

That the next government will just trigger Article 50 again to get more votes, will always linger over us.

I think this is actually very unlikely. Brexit has almost torn apart both the Tory and Labour parties beyond repair, been incredibly hard to tackle and distracted from other priorities. I think the most you'd see would be posturing.

PotterHead1985 · 28/10/2019 16:07

@BigChocFrenzy flu on top of fibro. Feel rotten.

Basilpots · 28/10/2019 16:09

Why doesn't the MSM point this out more often, rather than blindly parroting (to mix metaphors wink) the headline numbers? angryconfused

I suppose it wouldn’t make for lots of clicks and arguments then though.

Drives me nuts.

I’m thinking of starting my own party ’Basilpots & the undecideds’. Grin

prettybird · 28/10/2019 16:10

The time for a year long extension, so that there was time for a PV (without getting in the way of the EU Budget cycle if the answer were still No) was back in the April extension. I think Macron misjudged when he blocked that Sad

....but there is no point crying over spilt milk. That opportunity is gone now: our priority now is to work out what can be done in the 3 "new" months now available to us.

And not waste it as Tusk warned us not to last time Hmm and which the Conservative Party then proceeded to waste Angry

BercowsFlyingFlamingo · 28/10/2019 16:13

I've just tuned in to Parliament. Have I missed the tantrum or has it not started yet?

DGRossetti · 28/10/2019 16:15

Another statistical sleight-of-hand to watch for is combining disparate responses ... "Neithers and Don't-knows" being a favourite.

There's also the little trick of forcing a response which doesn't match the reality. YouGov have a little trick of asking:

Who would make the better Prime Minister:
A. Jeremy Corbyn
B. Boris Johnson
C. Don't Know
Notice the lack of "Neither", which is not "don't know" spelled backwards but "I would rather pluck my eyes out and fry them in garlic before I selected either".

When I had a chance to collar team YouGov, a while back, they said that the pollmeister usually (they who pay the pollster) specifically instructs YouGov to frame the question that way. YouGov do offer consultancy on polling. However, following on from yesterdays note that polls are made as cheap as possible, that's the first expense to go.

The gold-standard poll would have to combine stop-in-street, plus phone, plus internet, plus leafleting. Which is expensive, and not as "instant" as the media want.

Ultimately all polling is effectively trying to gauge the instantaneous gradient on a slow-moving graph that can go up and down. And that is fraught with all kinds of dangers, as I can recall from my days of Fourier analysis, and sampling rates and Nyquist criteria (which is what got left in my brain from Uni ....)

PotterHead1985 · 28/10/2019 16:16

@BercowsFlyingFlamingo hasn't started yet. Been tuned in since half 2. God knows what time it will start.

tobee · 28/10/2019 16:18

I always thought that the "don't knows" were the "mind your own business, it's between me and the ballot paper" right wing authoritarian types?

Just talking to Dh about how I don't want an election. Now feeling shivery and sick at the result possibilities. Usually, I'd be able to try to comfort myself with "well, it's only for a few years". But we don't have that this time! Possibly leaving the eu in a shit way, badly done negotiations and extra shit from Johnson and his cabinet of cunts on top. SadSadSadSadSad

tobee · 28/10/2019 16:20

Feel Better ASAP Potter!!! BrewThanksCake

DGRossetti · 28/10/2019 16:21

....but there is no point crying over spilt milk. That opportunity is gone now: our priority now is to work out what can be done in the 3 "new" months now available to us.

Tory party leadership contest ?

AutumnCrow · 28/10/2019 16:22

Nicky Morgan now. Are they playing for time or something?

Basilpots · 28/10/2019 16:25

Words used are also important.

The one that I see the most at the moment is using either healthcare or NHS.

Without fail if the words NHS are used rather than ‘health or healthcare’ it’s like a red button being hit and it will be ranked as more important, in a couple of polls only slightly behind Brexit particularly with Labour voters.

Hoooo · 28/10/2019 16:26

I shall, as usual, rely on this thread for my info

Miljah · 28/10/2019 16:27

Basilpots & the undecideds is a great name for a rock band....

Basilpots · 28/10/2019 16:27

I always thought that the "don't knows" were the "mind your own business, it's between me and the ballot paper" right wing authoritarian types?

Can be. But not usually.

DGRossetti · 28/10/2019 16:28

I always thought that the "don't knows" were the "mind your own business, it's between me and the ballot paper" right wing authoritarian types?

YouGov (other polling organisations are available, but I've done business with YG) sometimes have a "prefer not to answer" option, which helps narrow the data down. But at the end of the day, they're a commercial organisation, so have to keep the customer satisfied. If the customer doesn't want a poll that allows a certain narrative to be spun, then there is no point delivering such a poll. Either speculatively by doing your own poll and hawking it to the media, or taking a commission from (say) the Daily Mail which returns a poll showing anything other than Boris Johnsons arse being the second sun.

Right up till the great unwashed hit the polling booths in the "one poll that matters". And we can hopefully remember how 2017s results was in stark contrast the polling which - right up to the previous day - had mainly been about whether the Tories would have a 40 or a 100 seat majority.

There's a lot of secondary feedback going on here, where the MSM print polls that push the Tories into the lead in the hope that it will emerge as a self-fulfilling truth, as well as hammering Labour for the same reason. Trying to make non-Tories feel "othered" in enough numbers to swing the result.

And no matter what the polling, there's just no way to capture what might happen on the day - from weather, the morning headlines, something local ...

BercowsFlyingFlamingo · 28/10/2019 16:33

Thank you and feel better soon!

tobee · 28/10/2019 16:39

I believe there's norovirus "going around" as well! EnvySad

prettybird · 28/10/2019 16:44

Indeed DGR - as my following paragraph goes on to complain about (wasting the time that Tusk advises us not to waste) Confused - unless you're suggesting that there's going to be yet another Tory leadership contest because the current one ends up "dead in a ditch"? Hmm

dontcallmelen · 28/10/2019 16:44

💐🍫 for everyone who is feeling poorly, my three year old dgd had this nasty cold/sore throat that is doing the rounds, currently sounds like Phil Mitchell which is a bit scary.

Hoooo · 28/10/2019 16:47

Well ds2 is severely impacted and he has started an impaction laxative protocol today...

Just awaiting the poonami.....GinCakeBrewGrin

tobee · 28/10/2019 16:50

Brace, brace! Hooo! Grin

tobee · 28/10/2019 16:51

Yeah hope everyone feels better soon! Cake

Hoooo · 28/10/2019 16:54

I did text dh - who is away atm - and ask him wht it is that wherever he goes away the shit hits the fan!!
Grin