How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

[elprup]

What are your thoughts?

For me it's very unlikely indeed.

Parliament will block no deal.
We won't get a suitable deal from the eu.

So am extension it will be.

If the govt / parl won't budge, another extension is surely just kicking the Brexit can further down the road.
I don't think more uncertainty is a good thing.

For me it's very unlikely indeed.

I hope you’re right!

Extension or rebranded WA.

But I'm a general prepper and my dh, dd and I have Irish citizenship so I'll cope if I'm wrong.

If there’s another extension, surely that’s the time for Labour to call an election, hopefully win and cancel Brexit once and for all?

It's looking increasingly unlikely, and I'm looking forward to seeing the last of Boris and his Johnson.

Having said that, I'm a moderate prepper and I will be ready for a shitshow for a while.

I have Irish citizenship so I'll cope if I'm wrong.

Good for you. Many of us aren’t so lucky

Labour's problem is that it probably wouldn't win an election until after the worst effects of a Tory no deal Brexit have been felt.

I'd be very surprised if Labour win a GE with Corbyn at the helm.

All pills are showing conservatives would win an outright majority on an election, labour are at an all time low. Looks like BJ and his crew will find a loophole in the Benn act and we will be out.

Polls not pills!

Hence the reason why the opposition won't agree to a GE!

I'd be very surprised if Labour win a GE with Corbyn at the helm.

Well indeed. Most of them don’t seem to want him in charge. Which rather begs to question of why he’s still there. Why bother trying to throw Tom Watson out when he’s always seemed quite sensible and leave Corbyn as the leader? He’s possibly going to have outlasted 3 Tory PMs. It’s completely baffling.

I think there’s no chance now OP. I can’t see how we’ll leave on that date.

Another GE is unlikely to bring much clarity either.

My informed guess for the liklihood of where we'll be on 1st of November is:

50% Brexit has been delayed to 31st Jan
45% Crashed into No Deal
5% Withdrawal agreement has squeaked through

So I suppose to answer your question, I think there is a 50/50 chance we'll have left by 31st Oct.
(At this point my favoured options is the WA getting through, because all else is very high stakes. But I don't see how it could, at this point, under this sorry excuse for a PM.)

I just can’t see any form of WA getting through - I don’t think there are the numbers.

How likely is it that one of the other EU states will veto an extension on 31st October?

Having said that, I'm a moderate prepper and I will be ready for a shitshow for a while.

That’s all well and good, but having 200 cans of baked beans stashed under the stairs isn’t going to make up for the fact that I could lose my job and therefore my home

How did you vote, op?

I’m sure BJ said on Andrew marr yesterday that he would not be resurrecting the WA

Not that you can believe a word he says

I hope we do or we have a snap election.

No one in parliament has ANY idea what to do, least of all Corbyn. After 3 years all anyone has been able to do is say what they don't want

Very unlikely.

I think there will be an extension and then a GE.

• GE this year if no govt of national unity
• GE next year if GNU

Big question for me is how long an extension the EU proposes.

I suspect BJ's previous master plan was to bring back TM's deal but presented by a posh, male Brexiteer, ensuring the ERG vote for it, and scare everyone else into voting for it or risking no deal. Now that plan has been scuppered, its the Wild West in Parliament. They will just kick the can down the road again. The problem is that the opposition cant decide what they want after their extension. We have to have an election, but I suspect that another extension will lead to so much outrage that the Tories will get a majority and will be able to just push through whatever deal they want. In the unlikely event that Labour win a majority, they wont cancel Brexit. That's not their policy. They will try and negotiate a deal which will be worse than remaining- likely staying in the CU and SM- and put it to a referendum with remain on the ballot. Who knows what will happen after that.

Very unlikely.

Thanks. Comments like this are giving me hope!

I'm really banking on Brexit day being delayed, and then Corbyn and the SNP forming an alliance to win a general election (I think other posters are right that Corbyn is unlikely to get a majority on his own). Then hopefully we get a second referendum or just revoke entirely. Do you think that's possible?

My concern is that Brexit's delayed, Corbyn still doesn't call an election and we're left to the mercy of Boris yet again.

If there is a GE, it won't happen until October/November. Therefore, they will need another extension. Boris 'no deal' Johnson doesn't have a plan. The EU demanded he share a draft last week and he didn't provide one.