How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

[elprup]

What are your thoughts?

Delays just prolong the pain and uncertainty.

If there is an election , a vote for the Tories is a clear vote sanctioning No Deal.
If they win an election, that is what we will be faced with.

I am very skeptical that we will be out on October 31st.

However, in the medium term, I am very worried that the Tories are going to win the next election and then there won't be the check on them in Parliament that now exists.

Corbyn will have to go for an election if Brexit's delayed, right? What possible excuse could there be for not doing so?

90% of current roads lead to a General Election at the moment. Check the Jon Worth flowchart.

If there is an election , a vote for the Tories is a clear vote sanctioning No Deal. If they win an election, that is what we will be faced with.

Yup. Despite what the polls say I can't see the Tories winning though, after this total shambles that Boris/Cummings have orchestrated. I think the public have had enough

The poles suggest that leave would win by a wider margin in a second referendum. And TBH it’s a referendum which got us into this mess in the first place.

And although people say that if leave won this time we would accept it, of course you wouldn’t. Just because a decision is made with more information in the equation doesn’t mean that those who are opposed will suddenly accept the result, and neither will it mean that we can leave as we haven’t managed it thus far.

I do actually think we will be leaving at the end of October with no deal.

I could lose my job and therefore my home

This is why I don't understand the appetite for Brexit. It's nuts. It's unfair. It's cruel.

It's also why I have a faint hope that Boris and his Johnson will have to pull back from the brink, crazy Cummings in his ear or no.

jonworth.eu/brexit-what-next/

They’re still saying on R4 it’s possible, the chancellor I think on this morning. Wouldn’t say how though.

The poles suggest that leave would win by a wider margin in a second referendum. And TBH it’s a referendum which got us into this mess in the first place.

I don't trust the polls - I can't see how leave could possibly win by a wider margin considering how the last three years have panned out

"The poles suggest that leave would win by a wider margin in a second referendum."

No they don't! And they haven't done for ages!

whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/if-a-second-eu-referendum-were-held-today-how-would-you-vote/

Does anyone think it's possible that another EU member will veto an extension and that's how we will crash out?

Because people have been whipped up into believing that parliament is against them. I can see how the message would be even more emotive if it happened again.

"I can't see how leave could possibly win by a wider margin considering how the last three years have panned out"

Leave is an incredibly entrenched position. Remain do have the edge right now, and have done for a while, but it's not like the Leave vote has fallen off a cliff.

No chance. We will never leave and the decision has already been confirmed.

The referendum was not democratic. We were lied to. Shock horror. More importantly we were not informed of the full implications.

The procedure for brexit to be enacted through parliament was not democratic due to the illegal shutting down of parliament.

The person leading the brexit process in the form of a Boris Johnson is a big idiot and they could not have chosen anybody better for it to fail spectacularly.

Stop stashing. You’ve all been had.

The results of most current polls are being significantly skewed by the wording of the questions, the order of the questions, and disproportionate dependency on the answers of male respondents, though.

The Tories do not have this in the bag.

Corbyn will have to go for an election if Brexit's delayed, right? What possible excuse could there be for not doing so?

Because he’s a gigantic coward and knows he’d lose?

Looks like BJ and his crew will find a loophole in the Benn act and we will be out

I don't think so. Parliament are playing fire with fire and thinking through the loop holes he could use, even as far as nominating an eu commissioner and also could he use the privy council rights. They are closing off every avenue he could use to force a crash out.

I think he wants them to take him out. Seek the extension, call an election, he wins with a majority then takes us out jan with no deal.
This way he can say he didn't do it and shout about the remainders and garner support.

I think he's playing a longer game than Oct. I think he's playing January.

I think he wants the vote of no confidence. And parliament know it.

Leave is an incredibly entrenched position. Remain do have the edge right now, and have done for a while, but it's not like the Leave vote has fallen off a cliff.

True. Although... we're a good few years on. Given the voter split in ages, where Leave was predominantly older voters, and how many teenagers will have come of age to vote now... I have hope.

Not a lot, admittedly.

What a world to live in.

"We will never leave and the decision has already been confirmed."

No, that's not true either.

People think that Boris Johnson is Brexiteering at the moment.

He isn't.

He's electioneering. And he has been doing so since the moment he set foot in office.

The major aim of the Tory government at the moment is not to do anything about Brexit but to change the Parliamentary arithmetic so that they can win a GE with an increased majority and then do what the hell they like. So far, it's not working, but that's largely because the stubborn 14% of people who say they are going to vote Brexit Party haven't flooded back to the Tories as Cummings predicted. However, this is also because they haven't woken up to the FPTP system and realised that a vote of around 15% of the total will result in a grand total of 2 seats, making their vote more or less worthless. So this could all change. Very dangerous situation if you are a Remainer, particularly given that the vote on that side of things is currently split between two parties.

But if one EU member vetoes the extension then we're out, right?

Anyone?

I think Boris is now close to a withdrawal agreement with EU and will send across the detailed plans after Conservative Conference ends. I think Boris will win the next GE. Sajid Javid just announced minimum wage for over 21 years will be £10.50 per hour. That will help a lot of people on low pay in UK and pensioners are going to get a 4% rise too. If other parties keep voting against delivering a deal then I think the public will punish them at the polls. At the moment they are making no deal more likely as France is threatening to boot us out with no deal. I want us to get a deal, leave and then move on rebuilding the divides.

Lovely, @caringcarer . And how would they solve the NI border.

snigger