How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

[elprup]

What are your thoughts?

If there are no loopholes in the Benn Act, why have the other parties not called for a vote of no confidence or triggered an election? They are all playing silly games imo. I have no idea what they want to do after the delay. 3 months to do what? Have an election? What if we end up with another hung Parliament, which is the most likely result? Referendum? On what question? Form some kind emergency government and renegotiate a deal? They can't even agree what they want between themselves, never mind have a coherent proposal to put to the eu by December. I personally think revoke the whole thing and rethink when we know what the hell we are doing, but that won't happen.

noodle, there doesn't need to be a loophole for the PM to use emergency powers to suspend whatever legislation he sees fit. In normal circumstances that would be a ridiculous suggestion, but with the current government easily foreseeable.

Why would they call a VoNC and risk Parliament being prorogued before the extension is requested, thereby no dealing by default? That argument makes no sense. They'll VoNC once there's an extension in place.

It’s really looking like we will be out on Halloween IMO. I think Boris has something up his sleeve (e.g. an assurance that at least one EU member state will veto an extension).

I truly have not the slightest idea - but if all those hell-bent on avoiding No Deal got their shit together and helped (rather than hindered) the current govt in forming and agreeing a 'deal postion' that the HoC would pass prior to the 17th then the UK can 'transition' out from the 31st.

In an ideal world, but unfortunately too many 'ideals' and not enough 'practicalities' form the current paralysis.

but if all those hell-bent on avoiding No Deal got their shit together and helped (rather than hindered) the current govt in forming and agreeing a 'deal postion' that the HoC would pass prior to the 17th then the UK can 'transition' out from the 31st.

HOC can agree all they like but if what they agree is on a par with what was just presented to the EU, there will be no agreement.

Nah it won’t happen.

I honestly don’t believe we will ever leave.

but if all those hell-bent on avoiding No Deal got their shit together and helped (rather than hindered) the current govt in forming and agreeing a 'deal postion' that the HoC would pass prior to the 17th then the UK can 'transition' out from the 31st.

There is currently no deal for the HoC to vote on.

but if all those hell-bent on avoiding No Deal got their shit together and helped (rather than hindered) the current govt in forming and agreeing a 'deal postion' that the HoC would pass prior to the 17th then the UK can 'transition' out from the 31st.

Oh yes, all those nasty people blocking Brexit. As this was going to be the easiest deal in history then it is up to them to deliver this. They can't so instead pass the blame on.

Do I need to go shopping again? I'm really confused, I've got stuff in from last time but need to restock what I've used up. I'll probably do an online stock tonight if long shelf dated groceries & washing powder.

I am rotating my stash and trying to keep it at a level that will protect me from Bozo's silly japes

Extension + GE.

Boris is a bluffer and Baldrick is out of his depth.

Extension, then GE, then 3rd Referendum; different question, different options, different franchise.

Result: Out, but in CU, and with selective SM alignment on the Swiss model.

So what would you do op if brexit was delayed with a second referendum but the result the same? Would you accept then that leave is a majority vote?

Would you accept then that leave is a majority vote?
Most of us accept the concept of leave
its the reality that nobody has a clue about
SM / CU / WTO etc etc
English exceptionalism and cake and eat it have made rather a mess of things

I sugest that the best form of Leave is the one that gets the most support, which is likely to be the Remainiest Leave of all, not the Leaviest Leave that would get 50% plus one nutter.

Most of us do not accept the concept of leave. Most of us want to Remain in the EU and all the polls for mare than 2 years have shown this.

People - ie most people in the UK want to STOP BREXIT.

Yaralie
I wish I shared your confidence,
but 2/3 of constituencies voted to leave
and the polls vary massively depending on the question asked
and many people think that "no deal" will make it all stop.

Leave won the 2016 vote
but as the tangible nature of leave has never been defined by anybody
it can never actually happen properly

There is currently no deal for the HoC to vote on.

TM’s Withdrawal Agreement?....

TM's WA, but with a full UK-EU Customs Union in place of the backstop.

And fuck the DUP.

We cannot leave in any way that damages the GFA. That is the problem.

Sadly, I know adamant leavers and adamant remainers who have not shifted their positions, but I also know a few people who voted remain who said they would now vote leave just because they are fed up of it. I'm not at all convinced that most people would now vote to remain. I suspect an election and/ or a second referendum would lead to a broadly similar result. It's a huge nightmare

Just posted this on another thread, a round up of all remain vs leave polls this year.

If there are no loopholes in the Benn Act, why have the other parties not called for a vote of no confidence or triggered an election? They are all playing silly games imo.

BJ has to not ask for the extension first. Plus the opposition would be waiting until there were fewer than 25 days until the end of the month (I think).

NoWordForFluffy
Where are the ^Don't Knows/Undecideds" in your list?
10% 15% 20%?