How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

[elprup]

What are your thoughts?

Unfortunately it's highly lightly

I would genuinely predict if we crashed out macron would be out of power very soon after unless he gave the French the referendum.

That may be a genuine prediction, whatever that means, but it is also genuinely inaccurate.
The French are watching aghast as the UK sinks ever further into chaos and constitutional self-destruction and the rhetoric becomes increasingly belligerent. The accusations of "collusion" haven't helped.

Le Pen has entirely abandoned her Frexit angle.
Macron is unpopular but the current UK "leadership" makes him seem really quite palatable in comparison.

Yep esp after the UK is apparently proposing to set up border checkpoints in NI... in place of backstop... who are these idiots?

Macron is unpopular but the current UK "leadership" makes him seem really quite palatable in comparison

Funny it's similar with the Irish Taoiseach. He shines next to Boris (and Trump). In fact even revolting Trump looked smart next to Boris. Varadkar comes across as talking sense and standing by his people, the latter is something that would not have been widely said of him before.

@Jellykat "Didn't BJ say he'd rather be dead in a ditch then ask for an extension?"

He did. There's a difference between not doing what you say you'll do if you have a free hand, and being unable to do it because a remain parliament stymied your every move.

If he doesn't have an alternative to get out by 31st, you can bet this will be the narrative, and I doubt very much brexiters will punish him for failing in the face of what they see as a "remainer conspiracy".

He'll take the extension, then fight the general election on the basis that people have to give him a majority if they truly want out. But in order for this to work, people have to believe he truly tried to get out by the 31st.

I'm not sure he's really bothered about the outcome over the next 4 weeks. Either way, he'll fight a GE in a couple of months time with a manifesto that seeks to unite the brexit vote (i.e. kill the Brexit party), combined with Labour-crushing policies like minimum-wage hikes, NHS + Education + Policing spend, but without any of the Labour albatross policies (ban private schools, open up immigration).

I swear to God, it's like Corbyn doesn't want to win. It should be an open goal against a PM like Boris. Tony Blair in his prime wouldn't have even broken a sweat.

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0930/1079253-border/&ved=2ahUKEwiu1IL1xfnkAhWOQxUIHdyoAVEQlO8DMA56BAgGEC0&usg=AOvVaw2V0sCbihvO4tV3EgZSewix" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">custom checks
Don't think the EU and Ireland will accept this alternative to the backstop, so I can't see a deal by the 31st

One to Five year extension. Please....

This three monthly torture ad infinitum is absurd.

Sigh.... I know the repercussions of a long extension, but in all honesty, once that is decided, I think people will carry on their lives and breathe a big sigh of relief, pro tem.

I think that is what most people would agree to now. A hiatus and time to really think about how the leaked impacts would apply to UK if No Deal happened on 31/10.

Sorry, did I just wake up from a dream there!

Current proposals in the British border in Ireland are designed to be rejected. Customs posts and electronic surveillance are about the least acceptable solution imaginable.

People who spent most of a lifetime under intrusive government surveillance din’t Want it back

Inniu,

Customs posts yes, aggravating in the extreme.

But we are monitored otherwise every day anyway, CCTV, Number plate recognition, Toll booth cameras, online activity via algorithms and so on.

Border placement is the worst of it though in current circumstances.

I’ve always felt we’ll leave with no deal and the UK will cease to exist.

@Outsomnia
I am going to guess you have never lived along this border and don’t understand how deeply people feel about surveillance.
If this actually came into effect there wouldn’t be so much as a traffic camera left in Northern Ireland.

He'll take the extension, then fight the general election on the basis that people have to give him a majority if they truly want out.

@Dissimilitude and you’re certain there will be a general election, if we get an extension?

I think your post sounds spot on!

The polls (which may or may not be accurate) show that the Tories lose a whole load of votes to the BXP if there's a GE after an extension.

Equally, BoZo wanted a GE before the effects of no deal hit, which he can't have now, so that plan is out of the window for him.

My best guess is that the EU will refuse the short extension as it's no use to anybody, and insist on a much longer extension which gives the U.K. time to either get its house in order or finally implode, depending on the result of a GE. Or two!

But, it's not for our benefit they're doing this. If it wasn't for the island of Ireland they'd have waved tatty bye already.

The rumour is the eu will request an extension until May. To be fair I agree with them, January seems pointless. It's clearly not going to be resolved by then.

If boris's deal is what is being reported he's not got a hope in hell of it getting through Parliament. If indeed it gets through the eu,

So I think an extension and a general election is looking more and more likely but I really don't think boris can win big like he thinks he will. He may however get a small majority back, right now he's minus 43, so anything is better than that,

Johnson and Mogg have made a huge personal financial gamble that means they gain a huge amount from Brexit so they will be stirring up the mobs and playing as dirty as they can to get it though (then they can step down and leave someone else to clear up the mess while they count their cash unless they see some other way to add to their piles).

I still think it is 50/50 though.

31 October, yet another delay. Tories will make a pact with Brexit party, labour with snp. General election, Tories in with no real majority. Another delay etc etc until we all forget about it and move on.

Agree with Outsomnia a hiatus during which everyone calms down would be very welcome.

When will they stop showing those stupid 'Get ready for Brexit on 31st October' adverts on TV? That's what I want to know.

I really despair at what's happened to this country and hope we don't crash out at the end of the month. I don't understand the mentality of people so desparate to have something that will make their lives worse . But it seems like even if Boris was revealed to be the Croydon Cat Killer people would still think he's working for the people/better than Corbyn. I honestly don't know what to expect anymore.

He'll take the extension, then fight the general election on the basis that people have to give him a majority if they truly want out.

Sadly I agree this is likely. Bj may as well rename the tory party the brexit 2 party. I'm fed up that politics has become one issue. What about health, economy, crime, etc.

I'm sick of hearing the Get Ready for Brexit adverts too. Just piss off.

A bit of an aside, but regarding giving BoJo a decent majority so he gets the mandate he needs:

My DB. He voted Leave, and, like many, appeared to have been handed the 'enhanced' voting paper, the one with all the Leave options spelled out 😉, as he wanted this, but not that.

At May's snap election, he not only voted Labour, he joined the Labour Party.... since lapsed.

At the European elections, he voted LibDem.... he can't articulate why. Tho when he told me of this intention, I made agreeable, soothing noises so as not to deter him.... 😂

We don't discuss it much because I want to deck him, but he admits he didn't think he was voting for No Deal.

God knows how he'd vote now.

So any hopes of a clear majority may rest with the chaotic flip-flopping and poor analytical skills of people like my DB.....

Yes, they don't tell anyone anything... just go and check gov.uk, which then tells you SFA.

They could have had public information films on vaccination, littering even how to overtake cyclists but these films are just £100m down the drain.

Mark my words - we will never Brexit.

interesting last paragraph

That is an interesting last paragraph. Just wonder how much the disaster capitalists might have taken out of the UK in that short period though