How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

[elprup]

What are your thoughts?

Not a cat in hell's chance!

My guess is that Bercow will ask for an extension to end Jan 2020 (because Boris will refuse to do so), and then an election sometime in December. This will be another (but more) split parliament. We could then have 'a caretaker government of national unity' i.e. made up of cross party remainers who will then call for a second referendum. God only knows what happens then.

If there was another referendum I actually think it would be very tight but maybe the same result again. I know a few people who voted for Remain but still wish us to leave because that was result of vote.

I think Boris is now close to a withdrawal agreement with EU

I wish this were so, but I can see little pigs flying high.

Tories have two obvious paths forward to them at this point.

One is as @caringcarer suggested - Boris brings back some sort of variation of the original Withdrawal Agreement with sufficient wiggle room to get the die hards and the DUP on board, it passes, and we're out into a transition phase where we're paying members with none of the clout in all but name for the next couple of years.

The other possibility I see is that Boris & Co do their damnedest to demonstrate they tried to get out but were stymied at every turn by Remainers in parliament and in the courts. They request a brief extension, and follow it up with a general election.

They then set up a full on proxy-referendum general election, with a very seductive "Tell Them Again" narrative pitting ordinary people against "Remainer Elites", with the clear aim to secure enough northern labour leavers to form a majority.

In all honesty, I can see it working, particularly when the alternative is the absolutely awful Corbyn.

@bellinisurge I think the DUP are on the brink of agreeing to be lumped in with RoI for a time limited period whilst deal is thrashed out. In other words agree a time limited line down the Irish sea, something they said they would not agree to. That way there would not need to be any hard borders in NI.

I'm not sure if we will leave or not, I think there is a core of MP's who will do everything they can to prevent us crashing out with a 'No Deal'.

My big worry is that due the clusterfuck of this leadership and the Party infighting (on both sides) we may crash out accidentally.

I also worry that Boris really has got nothing to lose anymore . We come out with a 'No Deal' he has delivered his promise and there are some allegations that he/his friends will benefit financially. We don't come out, Parliament has blocked him & and Parliament are against the people, Boris is on the side of the 'Will' of the people.

If we are to come out, I think the best that could happen is that we ask for a very long extension eg 10 yrs, & do it as a slow gradual extraction. A full Governmental department managing it reporting to a cross panel representation of both Parliment/HofL. We need more education to the General Public what is happening and what the EU actually do.

If the mainland UK gets hard Brexit and Northern Ireland keeps all of the advantages of the single market, the smuggling will get INSANE
the Common Travel Area rules will be stretched to breaking point within days
its all loopy

I think the problem is how weak Labour are at the moment. As long as Corbyn and McDonnell are in charge they will not get enough votes to win a GE. For Labour to win they need a more moderate leader. A lot of public perception is that Corbyn only listens to Remainers in Westminster and closes his ears to Labour Leave voters in North. All of my husbands family come from North East and they are tribal and always vote Labour but now they say they will not vote for Corbyn/McDonnell combo.

They request a brief extension, and follow it up with a general election.

How can they get a general election though, if Corbyn won't call a VONC?

I know a few people who voted for Remain but still wish us to leave because that was result of vote.

I honestly don't know anyone of this mindset. All the other remainers I know want to, well, remain!

All of my husbands family come from North East and they are tribal and always vote Labour but now they say they will not vote for Corbyn/McDonnell combo.

Who would they vote for, out of interest?

But if one EU member vetoes the extension then we're out, right?

They are not going to.

No one is going to vote for chaos in a member state (Ireland) while there is still an alternative.

It might be the least extension, but there will be one (if the U.K. asks).

Surely if the Eu won’t agree to an extension then we are out 31st October because 650 odd MPs think they know best

@caringcarer I would love a border in the sea but a time limited one isn't worth anything. I agree that the scumbag DUP are starting to squirm. Hopefully it would be for a full on time UNLIMITED Border in the Sea.

@elprup

"How can they get a general election though, if Corbyn won't call a VONC?"

Corbyn has said he'll support a general election as soon as the danger of no deal on 31st October is removed. So there's going to be a general election, as soon as the question of the 31st October has been dealt with.

This is the real danger, I think - that current attempts to prevent a no-deal Brexit become used as evidence of elites trying to stitch up the referendum result. Dominic Cummings knows better than anyone how alluring a simple "ordinary people versus elites" narrative is.

Imagine a general election run on the same lines as the referendum, but instead of "TAKE BACK CONTROL", the line becomes "TELL THEM AGAIN"

In the unlikely event one of the 27 veto the extension it does not automatically mean “no deal”

Theoretically there could be a vote of no confidence the a caretaker PM could revoke Article 50. They could then set up a citizens assembly to look at Brexit issues and make recommendations with the plan to trigger Art 50 again with an actual plan!

Corbyn has said he'll support a general election as soon as the danger of no deal on 31st October is removed. So there's going to be a general election, as soon as the question of the 31st October has been dealt with.

So you don't think Corbyn will then say, we can't have an election because of the risk we could crash out on 31st January (or whatever the new extension deadline is) with no deal? I'm just scared that he won't hold an election even if we do get a delay, meaning we're stuck with Boris/Cummings for the foreseeable. On the other hand I don't see how he could not - there would be so much pressure on him to call a VONC!

Theoretically there could be a vote of no confidence the a caretaker PM could revoke Article 50. They could then set up a citizens assembly to look at Brexit issues and make recommendations with the plan to trigger Art 50 again with an actual plan!

That sounds good - although surely at that point, someone would just have to bite the bullet and admit that Brexit's not working and cancel the whole thing entirely. It really feels like we're flogging a dead horse now - the whole thing has proven to be completely unworkable! What's the point in wasting any more time on it?

Honestly I just wish Corbyn would step aside and let someone electable take the reins - but clearly that's not going to happen

Corbyn wants an election, he's deluded enough to think he could win it, his (remaining) supporters think he's strongest during a campaign (where he's just average, rather than the utterly terrible he is in parliament, or in the media, or on the details of policy).

He just doesn't want one yet. Although he's clearly ambivalent about the EU, he doesn't want no deal. Or more accurately, I think, he doesn't want to be seen as complicit in creating a scenario where no deal came about.

I don't actually think he's all that concerned about no deal itself - him and the other Bennites see the EU as standing in the way of some of the socialist policies they want to pursue.

I think that there is a chance.john major was warning the other day that there was a way around it.
I think bj is the kind of idiot to do that and suck up the terrible consequences

I'd be surprised if we leave in the next 10 years.

I know a few people who voted for Remain but still wish us to leave because that was result of vote

I genuinely know no-one like this.

Not least because the result of the vote was obtained using some fairly unpleasant propaganda, and lies, unfortunately. No-one I know has said, 'Oh, OK then, let's call it a fair result, eh, and just crack on with the carnage?'

I just really want a general election and an end to this mess.

There's a good chance a GE results in another hung parliament, sadly, unless there's an electoral pact between the Brexit party and the tories, or unless Boris starts to whittle away that 12% or so who support the Brexit Party.

Remain support is too divided between Labour, LibDems and SNP / Other.

And if there is no overall majority party?

No idea but I dont think my nerves can cope with all this uncertainty.
I'm sick of having tins of beans under my bed.
I'm sick of boris and his swamp creature mates lying
I'm sick of not knowing if I'm going to be able to afford food in a few weeks time.

I can see why people are getting sick of it and just want it over with. Not that it will be over for years.
Imho have a vote with 3 options.
Revoke, no deal, Norway type of deal. That way we can get some real insite into what people actually want from Brexit.