How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

[elprup]

What are your thoughts?

BxP is so determined to be saboteurs... I heard some analysis that the BxP can't do too much damage before March 2020, but at that point, if they indulge in too much vandalism, EU will just want UK MEPs out. Time is on No Dealers' side, really.

The key thing to remember with the Brexit Party voters is that our FPTP system means votes don't necessary mean seats. At the moment, the BP are taking chunks out of the Tory vote in % terms, but they are unlikely to get much in the way of actual MPs for that. (Several projections suggest that a 14-15% vote share could actually equate to just 2 or 3 seats).

Only 29 days to go.
I just hope Boris manages to get it done. I have every confidence in him despite the MPs' attempts to block the result of the referendum.
I want Brexit with or without a deal.

It's only 21 working days until 31 October I think and I desperately want us to revoke or extend.

I don't want the poorest in society to suffer more (unnecessary) hardship owing to the economic consequences of Brexit.

There is no such thing as "no deal" because whether we leave or not, we will still have to find a solution to the issue of the Irish border, we will still have to export our lamb, our pilots insurance still needs to be valid when landing aircraft in EU countries, we will still need to import car parts and all of those arrangements need to be made with our EU counterparts whether we are part of the EU when we negotiate or not. (Although negotiating from outside will be much harder as what little remaining leverage we have will have largely dissipated by that point.)

And there was no mandate for the thing they call "no deal" anyway because the remain result was 48% not 8%.

And I don't trust Boris Johnson or Jacob Rees-Mogg or the unelected Dominic Cummings.

"I want Brexit with or without a deal."
I know you do @Coppersulphate , despite Yellowhammer.
I hope you have a new username planned if we No Deal because you will have a whole heap of criticism and blame levelled at you if a Yellowhammer comes to pass.

@Coppersulphate - I want Brexit with or without a deal.

With no concern for the UK's obligations under the GFA?

I am actually genuinely alarmed by the Tory 'no deal or bust' strategy that is emerging over the last 2 days. To say it's hard line is an understatement.

The question is: can the Benn act folks get their act together and force a delay, or will the government weasel out?

The Benn Act is already law, it needs to be adhered to. If it isn't, there'll be an emergency Court heading to compel it to be adhered to. I suppose it depends how much BoZo wants to defy parliament and the Court as to what he'd do in the face of a Court Order.

Hearing, not hearing. Bloody autocorrect.

I think the question is more whether there are ways around the Benn Act. e.g.

waitingfortax.com/2019/09/15/the-flaw-in-the-benn-act/

blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/has-the-supreme-court-handed-boris-johnson-a-brexit-escape-route/

There aren't. There's been a few Twitter threads on it.

Interesting - all I'm seeing is a lot of uncertainty. Can you link me to them?

I think the second one of those links is probably the most dangerous.

Not really. I'm at work.

Have you tried looking? There was a very comprehensive one which debunked about 5 different ways it could maybe be exploited, showing how each one was unlikely to succeed. It was a Barrister, I think. Can't recall who. Try Jo Maugham's feed.

I've checked Jolyon's feed - it was the first place I looked - but all there is on there is confident assertion that it's watertight, not actual argument. And definitely not arguments that address the second point about the balance of power in the constitution. No rush - it can wait til later when you're home!

I can't recall who it was. Sorry. I've already said that. I'm not your secretary.

OK, no worries. I just can't find any threads that fit your description, that's all. I'm not one of the Twitterati, though, so it's more than possible this is my technical incompetence.

It was either down a Twitter rabbit hole or maybe RTB posted it on one of the Westminstenders threads. Not the last two. Or maybe three. Recently though.

I can't find it for looking now. Typically.

It gave about 5 options and said why none will work.

It was either RTB or BCF a thread or two ago. It was them reposting what they'd read on twitter though.

Yeah. I knew it was from Twitter! But it moves so fast as a medium that if you don't keep a log you'll never bloody find it again.

Sorry.

I've found this which is similar:

Can Boris Johnson bypass the Benn Act?
amp.ft.com/content/fac978fe-e11f-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc

It's so hard to find stuff on Twitter!

Don't get me wrong - I am not a constitutional lawyer, and hence no expert on this. I am not definitively saying that the Benn Act will fail. I do, however, have some experience writing policy and I know how very, very hard it is to take all of the ambiguity out of language and to force it to say one thing and one thing only, without raising questions, quibbles, or loopholes. Obviously, some of the brighest and best have been working on this, though, so here's hoping.

I'm a (not constitutional) lawyer and yes, I agree. In fact, some statute is utter fucking nonsense as they've tied themselves up in knots in trying not to make it ambiguous! 🙄

That's the problem in a nutshell isn't it? Language wants to be ambiguous. Try to get it to say one very defined thing and it is so hard you can actually end up chucking out meaning itself.

I'm just keeping my fingers crossed that it is watertight enough to do the job if needed.

I thought it was very tightly worded (way better than most legislation!). I wish I could find that post though, as it did basically poo poo all 5 potential loopholes quite well.

I am actually genuinely alarmed by the Tory 'no deal or bust' strategy that is emerging over the last 2 days. To say it's hard line is an understatement

Is this new? I thought Johnson had been like this from the start, with his new "no deal" cabinet, do or die, gloomsters and doomsters and leaving 31 Oct no ifs and no buts.