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Brexit

How likely is it that we will definitely leave the EU on 31st October?

201 replies

elprup · 30/09/2019 14:23

What are your thoughts?

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jasjas1973 · 30/09/2019 20:29

A month's worth of wine, if you are correct Wine

Bluntness100 · 30/09/2019 20:30

Nah, the eu will extend. Macron will do some whinging as usual but the eu will extend, they need the money. France and Germany can't afford us to crash out. Germany is already teetering on the brink of recession and macron has enormous problems with people wishing out. The other countries will fall into line, they can't afford another big one to go,

The eu will extend.

AgeLikeWine · 30/09/2019 20:35

It’s highly likely we will leave on 31 October because the opposition parties still can’t get their act together and agree on a strategy to stop Johnson’s kamikaze no-deal. Also, there are serious doubts as to whether the 21 former Tories could actually bring themselves to vote to collapse the government. Tribalism runs very deep.

This is what Johnson & Cummings are banking on.

UnoriginalUserName948 · 30/09/2019 20:45

I don't think we will no deal. How things play out is anybodies guess.

frumpety · 30/09/2019 20:47

The only problem with that scenario AgeLikeWine is how does someone make money ? If you look like you are going to no deal then don't , squillions made , if you look like you are going to no deal and then actually blow the bloody doors off, you have bought a shed load of a tanking currency which has signed up for a deep sea dive without oxygen.

Jellykat · 30/09/2019 20:48

Didn't BJ say he'd rather be dead in a ditch then ask for an extension?
Yes i know he's a bullshitter, but if he goes back on that comment, he's going to lose his supporters bigtime!

Plus, there are reports that BJ has possible ways of navigating the Benn act to secure a No Deal..and don't forget theres a lot of money to be made for his cronies with a No deal.

So yes, i think we'll crash out on 31st.

BercowsFlyingFlamingo · 30/09/2019 20:53

Regardless of what happens I've been converted to prepperism or what's known as "how they shopped and stored food before shops opened 24/7 and supermarkets delivered."

My nana had a great pantry because it had a sweet jar. She also had a well stocked bar Grin When I was little mum shopped monthly at the supermarket and bought fruit, veg, meat and fish locally. We had a greengrocers van that came round when I was very young. Then we moved to the country and we went to the farms for veg a lot of the time. 20p for a cauliflower was extortionate back then, I remember dad thinking it scandalous. Signs along the road advertising Cheshire's (potatoes) for however many pence a pound. It's years since I've had Cheshire potatoes. They came with dirt on them and dad used to scrat them with a knife at the sink. It was mesmerising watching him slice runner beans too. I could never do it like he did. He grew them every summer. This was back in the early to mid 80s.

Things have changed so much in terms of how we shop and what we eat. Some better, some worse. But what brexit has taught me is that having a few weeks supply of food in, a supply of bulbs and fuses, a torch, and a first aid kit are the way forward. Convenience has been the death of preparedness and planning. I'm embracing the ways of old for they've kept us fed during times of bad weather, illness or lack of money.

Everyone should have a buffer of food, even if just enough to last a few days should there be horrendous weather, or illness, or whatever. Keep a loaf in the freezer. Have a carton or two of the decent uht milk (Moo is nice) and an extra packet of biscuits. I'll always be grateful to the prepper threads for changing how I shop and plan.

Solitarycaddis · 30/09/2019 21:00

But if one EU member vetoes the extension then we're out, right?

Right. Hope they will grant an extension but I don't think its a given as many are saying on here. France was threatening to veto but has fallen back in to line I think. What worries me is how chummy Farage (who wants Brexit by fair means or foul) is with Viktor Orban and his charming cabal of "populists". Would Hungary veto I wonder? There's even talk of BJ vetoeing his own request to extend. Not sure how that could happen (technically speaking) though!

And remember that the mood among Member States is becoming less conciliatory towards us as this debacle unfolds. Germany and the Netherlands have spent millions preparing for Brexit.

If they do grant an extension though, like Verticality I am very worried about BJ winning and being able to go full steam ahead without checks.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 30/09/2019 21:03

Agree with pp, Johnson has boxed himself in by committing to 31st Oct. Similar to Mays “no deal better than a bad deal” if there is an extension it will boost the Brexit party at the Tories expense.

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 30/09/2019 21:05

I think there will be an extension to 31 jan.
it has to be agreed by the 17/18 October by the EU council.
I read that none of the EU27 want to be the ones who cause a no deal Brexit, hence there won’t be a veto

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2019 21:16

UK govt has to ask for an extension, some serious legal minds have been put to this, the same ones that have won two supreme court cases, really don't see how BJ can keep within the law and not request....

But he might ignore the law and with just 2 weeks, its possible he could get away with it, what could they do?

I don't get the the "EU need the money" argument, EU budget is 165 billion, our net contribution is around 10 billion, i'm sure they'll manage.

elprup · 30/09/2019 21:22

Its possible Johnson knows the EU won't extend, hence his certainty?

I fear this could be the case.

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caringcarer · 30/09/2019 21:23

@Belinsurge I agree FiL occasionally rings and tries to tell us both how we should thinkm act, vote. My dh says say nothing as FiL is old and ill but his family all think I am odd because I often disagree with FiL and tell him so. I think they feel sorry for my dh. Grin. Honestly I never realised behaviour like theirs still existed until I met his family. They are good in other ways though. Very good to children and if we ever needed help they would give us everything they had. They are just different, as I said in early post tribal.

Bluntness100 · 30/09/2019 21:23

You don't have to trust me, and I am happy to come back to this thread and say I told you so, but the eu will extend. 100 percent guaranteed.

elprup · 30/09/2019 21:25

You don't have to trust me, and I am happy to come back to this thread and say I told you so, but the eu will extend. 100 percent guaranteed.

I really hope you’re right!

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Somerville · 30/09/2019 21:26

I wouldn’t stake my life on anything where politicians are involved, but I’m pretty convinced the EU will extend. They don’t want the blame for the horror of no-deal consequences in the UK, and they don’t want civil war to restart in the north of Ireland.

Bluntness100 · 30/09/2019 21:31

our net contribution is around 10 billion, i'm sure they'll manage

A large percentage of this paid by Germany, Italy and France, who can't afford it, financially or politically. Our net contribution is just under five billion per year, very similar to Italy. Not ten. And the budget from gni, ie what every member state pays is about 78 billion. The rest is raised from vat, customs duty etc.

If we don't pay rhe five billion then other countries need to pick up the slack.

They don't have an extra five billion of their tax payers money to hand over. Not without some pain in their countries.

Bluntness100 · 30/09/2019 21:34

Sorry you also have to remember it's not just the cost of our membership that will be lost. Germany is also forecasting huge job losses if we crash out, as well as the increase in customs duty leading to a full blown recession which they are already on the brink of.

The cost to Europe is huge. Not as big as it is to us. But it's still huge.

I would genuinely predict if we crashed out macron would be out of power very soon after unless he gave the French the referendum,, and I doubt merkel could survive it either.

whyamidoingthis · 30/09/2019 21:36

You don't have to trust me, and I am happy to come back to this thread and say I told you so, but the eu will extend. 100 percent guaranteed.

I agree with Bluntness100. The EU will extend if asked. Varadkar has pretty much said that.

Somerville · 30/09/2019 21:38

I agree with your conclusion Bluntness though not so much that one of the primary motivations is the money. Because the EU will get the money already negotiated either way. Either as part of a deal in January (fingers crossed, though I’m not confident) or if necessary after immediate no-deal fall-out when the UK still needs a deal with the EU.

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2019 21:39

Didn't know that, but the proportions are similar.

A 5 billion euro loss is manageable.

BUT i do think you've a point, the EU will not want to be blamed for a no-deal.

I just think its strange BJ is so adamant UK will leave 31/10 but on what basis? he will have to break the law, unless its just gaming the opposition and is furthering the People vs Parliament narrative.

Somerville · 30/09/2019 21:46

furthering the People vs Parliament narrative

This is exactly why BJ is claiming UK will leave on 31st. I reckon he’ll take it to the cusp of trying (or at least appearing) to defy Benn bill and crash the UK out illegally. He might even achieve it.

Mistigri · 30/09/2019 21:47

I would genuinely predict if we crashed out macron would be out of power very soon after unless he gave the French the referendum,, and I doubt merkel could survive it either.

I would genuinely predict that you do not know the first thing about French or German politics.

EU will extend because Ireland wants them to. No member wants to be the one inflicting harm on Ireland. Most of the EU states are - like Ireland - small countries which punch above their weight thanks to their EU membership, and many of which rely on the EU to have their backs in the event of security issues with neighbouring states. They have absolutely no incentive to refuse an extension that Ireland wants.

Germany and, especially, France will make stern faces but will extend this time.

Bluntness100 · 30/09/2019 21:54

I already said they would extend, in fact I said if was a hundred percent certain, 🤣

jasjas1973 · 30/09/2019 22:11

Bluntness - if there is one thing this whole brexit mess should have taught us all, its that there are no certainties.

Aside - Why is there going to be specific brexit huge job losses in Germany?

Do you think UK directors/managers/technicians won't want to buy Merc/bmw/vw group cars and vans? or households wont buy german white goods?

They'll get round the tariff increases by have lower spec UK models.

Any job losses will be partially offset by UK companies etc moving to mainland europe.

Europe has seen the mess brexit is and if anything, has calmed the desire to leave the EU across europe.

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