Liklihood of another lockdown?

[JustPloddingAlong123]

Yes I know nobody can tell the future. But I'm just wondering what the general consensus is/ how likely you think another lockdown is? I'm hoping worst case masks again.
I want to start my daughter back at a club she went too, we stopped because she doesn't get on with zoom lessons and it was a waste of money during lockdown. Worth signing her back up or waiting a bit longer?

I was very much of the opinion that it wouldn’t happen. But our school have been back a week and I’ve had emails about 2 positive cases in seperate year groups. Given how we’re no longer sending bubbles home, and how siblings are still allowed in school I see it as now inevitable that just like at Christmas my son will bring COVID back from school. We were all ill, my husband very seriously ill. I now can’t see how they won’t lock down again

Well, these teenagers won't be fully (2 jab) vaccinated until best case early December ... I would put money on some restriction by mid October

Unlikely to see a full lockdown

@YouHaveNoAuthorityHereJackie you think there'll be a lockdown due to 2 cases in a school they'll lockdown if hospitals are overwhelmed only.

No. I don't think there will be another lockdown.

Zero chance.

HTH

Won't happen. IMO. Which counts for nowt. But you did ask

I think it's increasingly unlikely unless there's a big change, like new strains which don't respond to vaccines..

I cant see another lockdown happening unless hospitals become utterly, utterly overwhelmed and things like bringing back masks, returning to virtual school and asking people to work from home have failed. If we should get to that point (personally I doubt it unless some new super variant arises) I expect we'll be desperate to comply.

@notgotthehelp sure I think the whole country will shut down because of two cases.
My point, which I’m sure didn’t actually pass you by, is that there are no measures in place anymore to contain the spread in schools. When my son tested positive, his TA had tested positive a few days before and the whole year group was sent home. One of the parents was living with someone clinically vulnerable so lied in order to get their son tested. They were positive, with no symptoms. Then my sons friend tested positive, again with no symptoms. So off we went to get tests, no symptoms between us. Both positive. Within the week the whole household was down with it. It went through our school like wildfire in December, when they’d managed to keep it out until then. Like I said, I was absolutely sure before this week that there would be no further lockdowns. Seeing how quickly cases have cropped up here, and the total lack of isolation for family and close contacts, it now feels inevitable for me.

I think Boris is against lockdowns this winter but then again he was against lockdowns before the last 2/3 happened...

Lockdowns were to stop hospitals and the NHS being overwhelmed, they're now managing* so I think as long as that stays the same it won't happen again.

More cases in schools, clubs, events or whatever isn't indicative of the likelihood of another lockdown as long as hospitalisations stay manageable (and vaccines help with this).

Start the club, my DD is so happy now she's back at her clubs and it's so nice seeing her do things she loves with her friends! It's now taking over 4 days of my week provided transport to them 😂

*managing as in not at immediate risk of being overwhelmed by Covid cases.

I don't think anyone can know, not even the scientists... they're all just crossing their fingers and making their best guesses. They've made it clear it's the last resort but not impossible. I suspect if they do it'll be a November 2020 type lockdown where schools stayed open, unless things are really dire.

Let's hope things don't get too bad. One of our local hospitals ran out of oxygen last winter - that's a scary thing to read about with a child prone to respiratory problems.

Totally take your point @YouHaveNoAuthorityHereJackie -but lockdowns don't come because of high case rates but high hospital admission, which remains very unlikely unless, as a PP says, something unexpected happens such a new variant which escapes the vaccines

I don’t think the chance is that high.. but even if it were higher, I wouldn’t use the fear of another lockdown to stop me organising children’s clubs and things .. you’ll never do them otherwise and 18 months is a very long time to go without.
A lot of our clubs went online and we just didn’t dial in to them. Most people I know either didn’t bother or did it because they felt they should rather than because they enjoyed them or felt their children got anything from them.

Who knows. But there are five positive cases in DS2s class now. That's just in one class and they've been back less than a fortnight.

Very likely, hence why they’re mentioning it now.

Remember when they said step 4 was irreversible and we’d not be locking down again? It seems they spoke too soon.

Either we’ll lockdown before winter starts or we’ll have a big mess by Christmas which is probably what they’re modelling for and we’ll have to lockdown from January again.

It will as always be the absolute last resort, so my guess is we should expect face masks mandated again soon and possible localised restrictions in place for a month or two. Normal living and Covid is not possible in the winter.

It will be interesting to see the public’s reaction once it becomes clear the vaccines can only do so much, the rest of the battle WE have to do if we only want to have a mildly bad winter.

Schools are our Achilles heel and so is the cold weather, we can NOT ‘live with Covid unmitigated’ whilst those two are in the mix.

The more Boris says there won't be lockdowns, the more they say Christmas is safe the less confident I feel.

They'd have to bring back furlough, and since they can hardly afford to do that I would think and hope that another lockdown is unlikely. Not impossible, but unlikely.

I for one won't comply again with any instruction not to see my family. My elderly mother is now very vulnerable and lonely as my Dad died during the last lockdown (not Covid related).

We can't just keep locking down anyway, much as some on here might wish it. We have to learn to live alongside this as it isn't going anywhere. We can't just keep destroying people's businesses and livelihoods.

Hospitals get overwhelmed every winter anyway, so I expect we will but doubt it will have much to do with covid.

And the cynic in me thinks they need one to coerce the venues/people who have pushed back against passports to see them as the lesser of two evils if the other option is lockdown

If you bring back WFH if you can/want to, that takes a huge amount of people out of the risk equation, I get it doesn't suit everyone, but if it creates the desired effect around transmission then it's a really sensible option

I don't think there will be full lockdowns.
I think as winter sets in there may be the reintroduction of restrictions on various levels.

There will be a request to ‘work from home if you can’ and to avoid public transport. That seems likely.

I don't think there will be, I won't be complying if there is, I will still see family and friends. Not going through that again, it was awful

From sounds just be a case of bringing back masks and working from home. Unless things change. The mood has changed this time people will still mix in houses. I cant see them locking down before Christmas because people wouldn't not get together..