Liklihood of another lockdown?

[JustPloddingAlong123]

Yes I know nobody can tell the future. But I'm just wondering what the general consensus is/ how likely you think another lockdown is? I'm hoping worst case masks again.
I want to start my daughter back at a club she went too, we stopped because she doesn't get on with zoom lessons and it was a waste of money during lockdown. Worth signing her back up or waiting a bit longer?

Unlikely.

WFH might be requested if needed - although more on all that tonight

I'm starting to suspect there will be mitigations of some sort. Masks back (in England; we still have to wear them in shops/restaurants/commercial premises/public transport etc here in Scotland), work from home if possible, blah blah. The usual.

Lockdowns, though? Nah I don't think so. The issue now is that so many sectors have been so hammered economically by the last 18 months that another lockdown would finish a lot of them off.

And if too many people lose their jobs there'll be a knock-on to the housing market.

The Tories and the banks will not wear any adverse impact on the housing market, especially in London and the south east. They just won't. They'll send the NHS to the wall before they allow a house price crash.

I have a sinking feeling about the upcoming months. I foresee a real shit show with poor outcomes.

My husband once said that Covid is like “survival of the fittest” and it feels like that’s the Government’s approach now.

They’re waving us all off with a “good luck” grin and leaving us to our fate.

It reminds me of the film Titanic - when carnage erupted because people quickly realised it was every man for himself.

I may be wrong and I hope I am.

But in general….I think things are going to go very downhill over the Autumn and Winter period.

I really don't think you need a lockdown if you do boosters, bring in WFH if you can/and make masks mandated - pretty much everything can then stay open

I think the government will do everything they can to avoid another lockdown, only thing that might change this is a vaccine resistant variant. It'll be work from home where possible, compulsory masks, distancing, avoid public transport, meeting outdoors and if push comes to shove, vaccine passports - this can go further than already discussed for the UK if needed, in terms of venues like hairdressers, pubs, restaurants, cafes being included. The only one that creates a problem for me is public transport, but DH would probably have to work from home more, so I could work around that.

I do not get dragging people to offices on crowded public transport to play covid roulette when it can be avoided

I think October.
The weather will turn, cases will spike and he’ll do a ‘firebreak’ type lockdown!

Lockdowns were to stop hospitals and the NHS being overwhelmed, they're now managing so I think as long as that stays the same it won't happen again.

Several NHS boards in Scotland have cancelled non urgent care because they are full with Covid, have staff shortages because of staff off isolating, and can’t do surgeries because they have no ICU beds. Schools went back a month ago and numbers have shot up. Might not happen in England, but it remains to be seen what happens next.

Hospitals get overwhelmed every winter anyway, so I expect we will but doubt it will have much to do with covid.

It will be because of Covid, because it is happening already.

Maybe we could just copy and paste our answers from the last 9476581 threads asking exactly the same thing?

@DontWantTheRivalry I agree with you. The Titanic analogy is spot on, everything seems perfectly fine until it’s too late and things quickly spiral out of control.

No one can truly say with any certainty what will happen this winter and that’s my worry, it’s a big learning curve where one wrong move could be disastrous.

Anyone with children in schools will be acutely aware of how cases seem to be picking up. That’s only in mid September, a week or two after them being back.

Plus, if you're having no measures in place around kids in positive households going to school, you may as well have those parents working from home, because they can't work at the office if they've a dick child at home!

Sick child, but you know, dick child sometimes applies

I fucking hope not. I've booked a UK holiday over Christmas. Did the same last year then couldn't go.

Lockdowns were to stop hospitals and the NHS being overwhelmed, they're now managing so I think as long as that stays the same it won't happen again.

Managing?

As someone who works in a Paediatric Unit we aren’t managing….we are struggling in many many ways. Including staff already on their knees.

Currently over 50% of our admissions (60 bedded unit across four wards and a separate 9 bedded HDU unit) are for respiratory viruses, including Covid.

We normally don’t normally see these kinds of numbers or pressures until Mid November time, so the fact it’s already happening does not bode well.

I do wonder though, at what mysterious point Doris decides preventative measures kick in, before the system breaks or after?

Because, surely if masks are sensible then they're sensible now, same for WFH

Our local hospitals have been on Opel 4 alert level for two weeks now, they're asking people to consider going to other hospitals in emergency situations as A&E cannot cope.

Hospitals are not managing. They are overwhelmed now. If this does not improve before winter, it won't just be people dying from covid we need to be worried about.

Nope just restrictions

We had barely any flu cases last year, if it comes back at it's usual rate then I'd expect a lockdown to try and manage admissions into hospital.

Lockdown is extremely unlikely, and would meet with low levels of compliance and anger from businesses even if it did happen.

Some reintroduction of 'mitigations' such as mask wearing is possible but also unlikely I would say.

People would start to wonder why they bothered with the vaccines.

@marieantoinehairnet

Sick child, but you know, dick child sometimes applies

😂😂😂

I hope no lockdowns are needed, and am sure they won't implement unless necessary. I think if needed, it'll be attempted on a regional/area type thing, to see if that can stave off a national lockdown.

I'm feeling like at least regional lockdowns is likely, though would absolutely LOVE to be proven wrong.

i don’t think there will be, but who knows. I’ve not signed my 13 month old back up for a little music group this term. It’s £85 and if it goes back to zoom, she won’t be interested so it will be a waste of money.

Luckily the church hall playgroup has opened back up though so she can go there instead for a play.

@MajesticallyAwkward

Lockdowns were to stop hospitals and the NHS being overwhelmed, they're now managing* so I think as long as that stays the same it won't happen again.

More cases in schools, clubs, events or whatever isn't indicative of the likelihood of another lockdown as long as hospitalisations stay manageable (and vaccines help with this).

Start the club, my DD is so happy now she's back at her clubs and it's so nice seeing her do things she loves with her friends! It's now taking over 4 days of my week provided transport to them 😂

*managing as in not at immediate risk of being overwhelmed by Covid cases.

Hospitals in N Ireland are certainly getting overwhelmed. The weekend just gone at least two of them had to put out emergency calls for off-duty staff to come in and at least two others put messages on Twitter asking people to stay away from A and E if possible.You can see here that 9 hospitals are over capacity - they have more patients than beds.

I don't know if England, Scotland and Wales have similar stats.

Nope.

Boosters are incoming. The vaccines are already doing a very good job of keeping deaths low.

If things gets bad I think perhaps masks and wfh will return. But lockdown? No.