Liklihood of another lockdown?

[JustPloddingAlong123]

Yes I know nobody can tell the future. But I'm just wondering what the general consensus is/ how likely you think another lockdown is? I'm hoping worst case masks again.
I want to start my daughter back at a club she went too, we stopped because she doesn't get on with zoom lessons and it was a waste of money during lockdown. Worth signing her back up or waiting a bit longer?

I’m not sure why it matters to you Nanny I though you were putting yourself in lockdown anyway?

And prepping the virtual Christmas

They'll bring some restrictions in. It's a question of how far they have to go.

Teen DD had a fairly miserable 2020/21 without much competitive sport/training or music allowed.

My view might be clouded by the fact that my family caught Covid over the summer and have antibodies, but I am encouraging her to sign up for every activity she fancies while she can.

Assuming that there are teachers left to teach, I think the school will attempt to stay open, with online for those stuck at home. The kids are already masked up and bubbled to try to keep an outbreak in one or two classes from spreading.

Work seems happy with a substantially empty office (most people have decent kit and office space at home), so we'll carry on just meeting up for social things.

There are a handful of Covid patients in our local hospital, and a couple on ventilators. Things will get "interesting" here when 25,000+ students return (most live some distance from campus), so we'll make a conscious decision to give some venues a wide berth for a few weeks.

We'll have another quiet Christmas (good excuse to stay at home).

Much as I fancy a winter sun holiday, I am going to wait another year or two. I don't fancy an unscheduled trip to a Covid hotel.

It's a shame that people still fail to realise that covid will not/cannot be eradicated with lockdowns and restrictions.

Lockdowns/restrictions are just desperate measures to stop the health service collapsing, not just the NHS but in every other country.

@Kaley3043

I think Boris is against lockdowns this winter but then again he was against lockdowns before the last 2/3 happened...

Pretty much a year ago he was saying 'let the bodies pile high in their thousands' and they did. Then he locked down.

I think another lockdown is unlikely because vaccines do seem to be making a difference. I do think a return to some pre July restrictions like mandatory masks is likely if cases increase dramatically.

From the OP’s point of view I think it’s worth joining the club.

I just don’t get all this crap anymore.

So last spring and winter and spring again when there was virtually nobody vaccinated, the nhs didn’t get overwhelmed. Whether that was due to lockdowns or just the natural wave cycle of a virus season is debatable.

But this winter, when nearly every vulnerable and elderly person is vaccinated (and let’s face it, it is still these groups that are most likely to end up in hospital) why do we now care about cases of the link to hospitalisations and deaths remains severed and even if 5 million eligible people remain unvaccinated, surely most of them are in younger age groups, a bit hesitant due to side effect reports etc, and so there isn’t really a risk amongst the unvaccinated either. Last winter, some 44 million people weren’t vaccinated and the system coped.

Why the talk of masks being brought back and vaccine passports to get those last remaining 5 million and work from home mandates?

It doesn’t make sense anymore and is hardly learning to live with the virus. This constant threat of restrictions and interference with our day to day lives (and freedoms when it comes to vaccine passports) is NOT living.

Very likely I'd say. Youngest DC tested positive with a PCR right at the end of the summer holidays. Emailed the school and asked if I should keep all 3 DC off. Was told as the other 2 were negative they can come to school. 5 days later while DC2 had been at school 3 days, she tested positive. So she had been in close contact with a class full of children. Again told to still send oldest one in and then she also tested positive a few days after.

I think once this winter is over and we, the scientists rather can see what vaccines work and why, boosters... Trials of treatments, flu and how that works etc we won't be in this position next year at all

But I do feel we need to be careful going into winter.
This isn't forever, Chris whitty did say at the beginning it would be a few year thing..

Rainbow it's insane isn't it!

It will be interesting to see where this goes.
I've been in a waxing and waning high case area but never before have I known of so many cases as there are now including dd.
All around me at work also..

So last spring and winter and spring again when there was virtually nobody vaccinated, the nhs didn’t get overwhelmed.

It came close. However that isn’t the only problem. Hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, but they are struggling to treat the backlog of cases and every staff member who has to isolate makes that more difficult to deal with. Patients still need negative covid tests to get treatment. I would assume that isn’t going to change much because hospitals are full of people who are vulnerable and who may not be protected by the vaccine.

Of course I'm going to have the booster why wouldn't I protect myself? I also am continuing to wear my mask to protect others. Wash my hands and keep my distance.

Simple.

@Lostinacloud depends what you mean by overwhelmed doesnt it? Last winter the nhs was at capacity and had cancelled almost everything it normally does that wasnt super urgent. Do we really want another 9 months of a health service struggling to treat anything but acute patients?

Lockdowns were to stop hospitals and the NHS being overwhelmed, they're now managing so I think as long as that stays the same it won't happen again.)**

Is that so?
I can assure you they're not managing and it is only September. Winter pressures usually don't kick in until November.
My previous trust, where all of my friends still work have been on surge alert for 2 weeks now.
ITU has lots of covid more than this time last November actually ( that said, it is a covid hotspot) and annual leave is again being cancelled.

There has to be mitigation.
I think it will be masks back, WFH and back to isolating when there is covid within the household. I also think they may throw a longer half term in too.
Then maybe just maybe we can escape another lockdown.

I think for the chief medical officer to come out yesterday to say we are vaccinating children because of the benefit to their education abs because missing school is harmful (not for health benefits which are limited) and then for them to shut schools again will be very difficult. We now have a scientist saying missing school is bad for children which felt like a bit of a game changer to be honest!

I think you are talking nasty ageist rubbish @marieantoinehairnet. All the older people I see are still wearing masks when asked to (in shops, public transport, doctor's surgery etc), sanitising and being very careful. Most know that they are still vulnerable to being very ill of they contract covid and can pass it on.

if not of.

I think they might do a firebreak. I hope not. It’s spreading like crazy now in schools though. There were 7 left in my sons class of 29 today. No one has contacted me but I’ve had him take a pcr today to check. I think the current plan is just let it blaze through the unvaccinated by the looks of it.

@Claudethecat

I think you are talking nasty ageist rubbish *@marieantoinehairnet*. All the older people I see are still wearing masks when asked to (in shops, public transport, doctor's surgery etc), sanitising and being very careful. Most know that they are still vulnerable to being very ill of they contract covid and can pass it on.

I'm not, I'm telling you my experience just yesterday, the receptionist was aghast, yet those of us going out to work and risking the public transport infection shuttle won't be getting boosters

@TheKeatingFive

I’m not sure why it matters to you Nanny I though you were putting yourself in lockdown anyway?

And prepping the virtual Christmas

Maybe because I don't want the CEV to be treated like sitting ducks.

Which is exactly what they are without restrictions.

Well it isn't my experience @marieantoinehairnet and I don't believe that every "oldie" bar one refused to wear a mask while every young person complied.

How many "oldies" were there at the clinic and how do you define "oldie"? Did you ask them all their date of birth?

yet those of us going out to work and risking the public transport infection shuttle won't be getting boosters

Well plenty of those going out to work and risking the public transport infection shuttle WILL get the booster as CEV people, CV people and over 50s work and use public transport.

@marieantoinehairnet I certainly see the older generation wearing masks! Must be hard for them too.
If I’m honest when I have been out it’s been males 25-45 that have not bothered. Makes me laugh when they walk around with their partners who are wearing masks 🤦🏼‍♀️

@Claudethecat

Well it isn't my experience *@marieantoinehairnet* and I don't believe that every "oldie" bar one refused to wear a mask while every young person complied.

How many "oldies" were there at the clinic and how do you define "oldie"? Did you ask them all their date of birth?

yet those of us going out to work and risking the public transport infection shuttle won't be getting boosters

Well plenty of those going out to work and risking the public transport infection shuttle WILL get the booster as CEV people, CV people and over 50s work and use public transport.

We'll look, you can dispute me, but it happened

Old as in they looked old, I dunno, over 70 and yes it happened... hod Alice, some people on here really do think they can dispute anything!

Oh come on @NannyAndJohn even you know that the only way to eradicate covid is to nuke the entire of the UK - and no,
I’m not being dramatic

Confronting and disputing bigotry is always a good thing @marieantoinehairnet