Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Thanks Barracker😊

Thanks barracker

Thank you Barracker

Thanks for the new Thread Barracker 💐
and the useful links in the OP

Thank you @Barracker

I don’t comment often, but I have followed from thread one. You and all of the other contributors have made this crisis much easier for me. Thank you to all.

The UK daily death rate compare to Italy has shown a different trajectory in the last 3 days. We appear to be returning to a 14 day comparison rather than 16 days.

Thanks Barracker

Thank you 😊

I wonder if Mother's Day could be linked to the recent acceleration.

Thanks Barraker

And that's FATE I just said at last of other thread I missed your spreadsheets!

Fate that spreadsheet gives an extremely stark picture. We were progressing in death rate quicker than Italy but our mortality rate is now daily pretty equal to theirs and much higher than they were 16 days ago.
Thanks for keeping such a detailed check. Sticking with your choice of model has made it easier to compare realistically and honestly.

Thanks, Barracker. These threads are really useful.

The NHS data from Seaside15 are disturbing, as they show just how many hospital deaths are not reported in the daily headline number.

On 28 March, UK reported a total of 1021 deaths. But now we can see that in England alone the number of deaths (still only deaths in hospital) was 1846.

(Subsequent figures for England are still provisional as many trusts are updating numbers only with a long lag.)

We thought the first death UK happened on 5 March, but by then there were actually 7 deaths in England alone.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Was data released today on the ages of the patients who died?

Thanks Barracker!

I am also tracking UK/France comparison because there had been previous mention of us following them. However I can't see any kind of comparison. The 5 day compare I'd originally set clearly isn't correct now, but I can't see any compare to a different time-lag either.

The conclusion I draw is that we are on a different trajectory to France. And aside from the anomonly of today (artificially inflated to include care home deaths over several weeks), France have a much flatter curve than UK.

Place marking thank you so much for your work on this

Placemarking ... I don't always understand the more advanced maths () but it's great to read proper facts instead of hysteria

Brilliant data compilations, am placemarking to have a proper read after bed time!

Thank you for the new thread. I apologise that I’ve watched more than I’ve contributed, as I am nowhere near as numerically literate or diligent as most of the posters. Thank you all for the information

Place marking and thank you.

@FATEdestiny does that mean we’re on our own trajectory or that we are pretty much still tracking Italy?

Did I hear correctly (was listening on radio) that the mortality graph shown in today's news conference was from 50 deaths? Is that a new 'baseline'? Weren't they using 10 deaths before?

Marking my place from Spain.

LilMissRe: I take it to mean that it's no longer realistic to assume the UK won't be as bad as Italy. The UK numbers might exceed those of Italy.

Referring to one of the links in the header: www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest, have a look at the first graph. Look at the UK trajectory relative to the others. It's sobering.