Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Depends very much on how close people come to each other and how often,
what they touch,
how many people in the vicinity

Also whether the type of activity risks breaking the 2m rule
e.g. the law here (Germany) has been tightened to try to exclude this:

"a minimum distance of 1.5 meters must be maintained.

Public behavior that is likely to jeopardize the distance requirement of sentence 2, such as partying, barbecuing or picnicking,
is prohibited regardless of the number of people"

The lockdown in the UK seems lighter touch than in other countries
and all European lockdowns are much lighter than in Wuhan

We will see from the UK figures over the next few weeks if this matters
Rather too late for studies atm if it does

I've just read that 767 cases confirmed in the German armed forces

but they have had more contact with patients to date than British armed forces,
including flying over critically ill patients from France & Italy

... probably they are also more likely to be tested

As an aside. Is anyone else pleased with how Matt Hancock is handling the briefings currently? I feel he's being very clear, very open and honest, giving bad news if it's the truth but telling us how he's trying to solve it. There's no "rallying the troups" feel about his speech. He was especially honest about his own immunity and scientific evidence, about the unreliability of the antibody tests and that it'll take longer than they had planned, that releasing lockdown isn't easy anyway but will be harder without the antibody tests and certainly they can't state now when and how it'll happen.

I feel he's been more like this thread. No one wants the bad noses or the deaths or lockdown. But they want the truth and patterns and science to feel in control of their own decisions and also to understand what's happening.

Isn't Matt the one who's said it's okay to go out? And who is therefore responsible for the big raise in traffic today?

I also have been following since thread one. I don't have a very 'science-y/data/analytical' brain so am grateful to those of you who are able to present and explain the stats in a way that I can process. It's also a good place to get facts and avoid too much speculation and hysteria (which I can easily get caught up in and find myself spiralling).

I'm sure you covered this off, but can someone explain to my the consistent low number of recoveries we are showing? I am assuming a lag in reporting as looking at territories who began their steep climb at a similar time to us (NY for example) suggests that we are miles behind.

But maybe it's something else?

I'm looking for a bit of hope i think as from what I understand we are tracking Italy, and then some....

Thank you again to all the calm and patient people on this thread.

Listening to Matt Hancock give the press conference yesterday, when the government was on the ropes over testing*, felt like listening to a party political broadcast.

• Apart from being used to enable front line NHS staff to return to work as being Coronavirus free, in the UK context "testing" seems to be more like a political tool than a medical one.

can someone explain to my the consistent low number of recoveries we are showing?

How do we measure "recovery"? I don't think the diagnostic tools exist for this to be particularly meaningful.

@Barracker will you continue updating your time stamped data graph? Please? It’s great to see some clearer data.

The talk about poorer compliance with regards to parks is really interesting for me as someone living in Spain where lockdown is stricter than a lot of countries. It's always seemed a mistake to me (admittedly totally unscientifically) to allow both exercise and schools being partly open, because there will always be a percentage who don't comply and so the lighter the lockdown is the longer it takes to reduce the numbers because you aren't reducing contact to the same degree.

nauticant Fri 03-Apr-20 22:13:41
can someone explain to my the consistent low number of recoveries we are showing?

How do we measure "recovery"? I don't think the diagnostic tools exist for this to be particularly meaningful.

My completely non-scientific/non-fact-based assumption was the 'recovered' referred to people who had been sick enough to be hospitalised/tested positive but were now well enough to return home?

Another issue re recovery numbers:

I don't know about the UK, but in Germany it is not mandatory for people to notify the authorities when they have recovered

It is usually known here, because of health monitoring, but a few people might not be included in the official statistics for recoveries

Excellent graph barraker and exactly what I was asking about that real time data. Thanks as always.

However, the large number of tests means most confirmed cases in Germany are of people with "milder" symptoms who only need treatment at home.

Does anyone know if there are any UK regional graphs on a county / health board basis?
There are a lot of arguments online near me currently whether certain large events have caused a recent spike.... Without a graph it is hard to say

WhyNotMe40
Click on the link in the OP for "NHS stats", download the spreadsheet of data. The second tab is by region - the first is by hospital trust.

This has aged well www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/13/cheltenham-festival-bubble-respite-gold-cup

Thanks Barracker

Some areas of Michigan ie Saginaw and Flint are probably dense inner cities with a majority black population. It will be interesting to hear if the Amish of Michigan are predominately spared.

I'm sure you covered this off, but can someone explain to my the consistent low number of recoveries we are showing?

I'm not sure there are any official UK recovery figures, are there?

Isn't it that most people are either still in intensive care, dead or at home and not logged?

The UK confirmed cases would almost all be at hospital, or NHS workers - since it seems they are almost the only ones being tested

So nearly all confirmed cases at home would have been treated in hospital and released when well enough to be treated at home ?

Worldometers has UK closed cases as 96% dead, 4% recovered

• which must be a reporting / recording issue with the UK, wildly different to other countries

In contrast,
Spain has 27% dead, 73% recovered
Germany 5% dead, 95% recovered

The UK confirmed cases would almost all be at hospital, or NHS workers - since it seems they are almost the only ones being tested

Yes, I was speaking more generally about the wider group of people who have "recovered", but you are entirely correct I think.

Thanks for the thread, Barracker. Very interesting time stamped graph there.

Great thread