Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Oops. Forgot to attach screenshot:

The Worldometer numbers for UK recovered haven't changed for at least a week, and it's not clear where their number comes from as the UK doesn't seem to be announcing the number of recoveries. Worldometer also seem to have to have removed graphs related to recovery from the UK page.

Until someone can come up with a reliable data source I would treat the number of UK recoveries as unknown.

elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04-04/los-datos-dan-un-respiro-caen-los-casos-las-muertes-y-los-ingresos-hospitalarios.html
Spain death toll 809, that's a big drop and the lowest in a week I think. Also the number of hospital admissions is less than half of any day this week, only 975, comapred to 2524 on Thursday.

Absolutely, DuLang
There is quite a different demographic disproportionately affected by CV-19 compared to flu. Ethnicity and BMI profiles are different.
And strikingly, it is affecting people who needed no assistance in daily life to a much greater degree than flu.

It's hitting male/higher BMI/BAME people disproportionately, compared to flu.
Being underweight almost seems to confer an advantage with CV outcomes, compared to flu, where it can make a frail elderly person more vulnerable.
We know diabetes is a risk, although I don't think the critical care report gives it much attention.

I've mentioned before, but I want to see information coming out about metabolic disorders, insulin resistance, pre-diabetes, diet types, and whether they have an impact. It's just a hunch, but I wonder if there's anything in it. Possibly not, but there is a breadcrumb trail worth following I think.

crsacre do you reckon the Guardian are cribbing this thread?

It's market day in my town (and probably hundreds of other towns). Last week there were no cars, no people going past our house. This week, there is traffic - a car every minute past my house - and I have seen approx 3 people pm going past in the last hour. There is no doubt that more people are out and about today than there were last Saturday.

There is no actual market today, obviously.

It certainly looks like people are getting bored staying at home.

@Barracker your blue/orange graph is great. Thank you!

But it’s very scary

I was hoping last nights briefing would have licked down further to prevent some if the stupidity we are already seeing & wgats to cone tomorrow

Not a very big difference in the UK in smoking habits men / women

vs the large difference at all ages in male / female hospitalisations and deaths

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthandlifeexpectancies/bulletins/adultsmokinghabitsingreatbritain/2018

"In the UK, 16.5% of men smoked compared with 13.0% of women."

I was wondering if the BAME difference between Flu and CV19 (In the U.K. at least) is due to the increased contagion/lack of immunity + cultural differences in family life, such as multi generation households (and perhaps in UK BAME community religious culture too?) (plus the preexisting illnesses and genetic conditions that are already more prevalent - I note sickle cell disorder is on the ‘extremely vulnerable’ list).

I read two different news stories last night about multiple deaths in 2 different black British families. Both stories were presumably deemed news worthy due to having a ‘celeb’ in the family, but it made me wonder if/how those tragic situations might be replicated in other families?

Of course, like the sex differences, multiple deaths in a single family could also eventually turn out to be some kind of inherited gene fault situation.

Interesting that the almost 50/50 survival rate remains steady with another week’s worth of data (although these are still the atypical ‘short stays’ in critical care). We’re presumably going to see that get worse (due to the lag caused by the weeks of mechanical life support) even as better treatment pathways are found...

In the oldest age groups, there are far more women alive than men,
but there are still more men than women dying in this group,
e.g.

www.theguardian.com/science/2019/sep/25/number-of-people-in-uk-older-than-105-more-than-doubled-since-2002

"there are more than 400,000 women in the UK today aged 90 or more compared with 183,000 men."

The increased deaths in larger families could be down to viral load ie if you are contained in close contact with several people all shedding the virus you will get a higher viral load and therefore a more severe illness.

Thanks! Viral load is another factor to ponder - have no idea if these families were in close proximity for extended periods (ie living in one household) or saw each other once/frequently during the asymptomatic period. Deffo something for proper researchers to be looking at.

Possibly in comparison to unrelated people living/working in institutions?

(The US aircraft carrier news story being a particularly troubling example www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Exclusive-Captain-of-aircraft-carrier-with-15167883.php along with retirement/nursing homes and prisons)

13 deaths in a week at a care home in Glasgow. They won’t be part of the official numbers will they?

Has there been any actual figures in relation to obesity being a risk factor. Quite a few reported "no health issues" deaths, including the two lovely nurses who tragically died, seem to have potentially high BMI's. Is this being acknowledged anywhere in the statistics. I note someone up-thread mentioned obesity as a risk factor, but is this officially recognised. Some time ago I thought the pictures from the Italian ICU's showed quite a number of larger patients, but this could just be coincidental.

Apologies if this upsets anyone.

There certainly were BMI stats noted in the report I saw in the last thread. Having a BMI under 25 seemed to confer some advantage.

This may be of interest to look at behaviour change - it is broadly at county level in the UK.
www.google.com/covid19/mobility/

BMI stats.

And BMI outcomes

Thanks for new thread.
Recovered in Italy means 2 negative tests following a positive one. Over a longer period than the UK seems to be. Our first case in my town was diagnosed early in March (about the 3rd iirc) and was classified "recovered" this week after 2 negative tests done a week apart. He was "mildly symptomatic" and at home.

The problem with parks etc is that everyone is going to go which makes the SD advice meaningless. Our seafront and parks were initially open but because everyone gravitated down there, the mayor closed them all. The govt on Wed said families with children could go out for a walk and our mayor said "fuck that I'm overriding the govt" Tbf, most of the parents commentating on the local FB pages were shocked at the govt announcement and said "we've come this far, our kids are staying at home".

Spain death toll 809, that's a big drop and the lowest in a week I think. Also the number of hospital admissions is less than half of any day this week, only 975, comapred to 2524 on Thursday.

This is hopeful news.

Another 708 deaths in the UK🙁

Is the difference in the daily reported deaths and time-stamped deaths because some deaths won't be recorded on the day as being Covid-related/ correlated (eg, in a care home) because no test was done before death, but one is done post-death and then retrospectively added to the total?

Actually I thought we'd hit 1,000 today so I think 708 not too bad. Obviously tragic For the families.

I think what I am trying to say is the rate of increase is slowing.

Only 6570 individuals tested though according to PHE tweet, so a lot of repeats in there (testing for recovery?).

Spain death toll 809, that's a big drop and the lowest in a week I think. Also the number of hospital admissions is less than half of any day this week, only 975, comapred to 2524 on Thursday.

Clearly it’s not bad news, but I’d be hesitant about reading too much into it. We’ve seen Italy and the UK deaths drop for a couple of days only to spike again. We need to be comparing a few days together to determine meaningful trends.