Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Maybe some software bug, even as simple as an excel formula error - e.g. to sum numbers - that was copied wrongly from a previous field

I actually found such Excel errors a few times when investigating why someone's math model results looked odd !
Sometimes it's the simplest errors that are the most difficult to track down, not the math model with 100 million parameters

Indeed. Although I can't help but wonder why it hasn't been spotted and corrected, given the enormous importance of getting this right.

Thanks barraker that volcano is just so clear. What I see from it is that reported deaths is increasing day on day but the actual deaths on a daily basis has been more steady with regards an increase.
This obviously may show a much different picture as we catch up and you add to the volcano.
But I think the most important statistic here with regards monitoring lockdown and it's effects and when we can start to relax it is the actual death per day (because we know there's a predicted pattern and timeline that a high number of cases that sadly end in death will follow).
I'm watching to see if the volcano reaches the high numbers reported from here on in as previously or if it remains equal to or below these high numbers - as this will show if we are flattening curve, peaking or something else.

Wonderful work on that graph Barracker. Thank you.

Oh wow fascinating re making their own @Lumene, thank you!

Wasn't March 31 clocks go forward day? One hour less than other days?

Regarding schools potentially re opening, I know that many Sen schools are preparing to take on more children if they can as their parents often struggle and the children often access specialist supports in school/ need those routines etc.

My only query is that how will they be able to have staff (and any pupils with certain conditions) such as those with diabetes, pregnant and asthma (the flu jab group who are advised to be socially distancing for 12 weeks)? The stress of thinking you may catch it will be huge. I'm thinking especially of pregnant women, as I had as similar experience re a virus when I was pregnant. I know it's more about the pressure on hospitals but there's now a level of oc health concern too and it's still unclear why pregnancy is an issue; iirc they're being "safe?" Which is what I believe they're doing re asthma.

The 12 week thing came in just before they closed the schools, so opening before the 12 weeks is up will see those staff still being away.

Wasn't March 31 clocks go forward day? One hour less than other days?

No. 31st was a Tuesday.

I 'm just putting this note from PHE re 2 omissions in case it should be noted .

As of 9am on 8 April, 282,074 tests have concluded across the UK, with 14,682 tests carried out on 7 April. Some individuals are tested more than once for clinical reasons.

232,708 people have been tested, of whom 60,773 tested positive. Today’s figure for test data does not include Charing Cross and Southampton due to a data processing delay.

The negative test thing - anecdotal evidence again, but I know someone who is very seriously ill, in hospital, on a ventilator for the last week, but who has had 5 tests, all of which came back negative. They are treating him as a Covid case because of his X-ray results.

If the number of false negatives is very high, it would explain why the number of people tested is so much lower than the number of tests actually done, iyswim.

Great graph, Barracker. I'm expecting to see a version of it in the news very soon; maybe you should copyright it!

I've always pronounced your name bar-rak-ker in my head. I now say it as bar-ray-ker (as in rhyming with "the excellent graph maker)

Think this graph will become legendary

Neuro that is one problem about schools lots had to shut after the 12 week group was announced.

The SAGE science said 16 weeks for schools. I know things change though. Hopefully not based in that awful study.

I meant the Lancet study not the SAGE Science just in case it wasn't clear.

@NewAccountForCorona there was a graph on the FT I think showing the same data but in a slightly different way so I think it's too late for copyright unfortunately

Just as an aside, regarding testing - I'm an NHS worker & the only way we can be tested is if we are in a critical team & within the 1st 72hrs of symptoms.

That might explain a lot about the negative tests after this period.

Have they told you why, Glass? Does that reflect the in accuracy of the tests in the later stages of illness or are they prioritising catching staff when at their most contagious to stop the spread?

I want to write something grateful and encouraging to you and all the other essential staff who post here but everything seems so trite.

Belgian-Dutch Study: Micro-droplets that may carry the coronavirus will flow behind a walker, runner or cyclist

^If you walk/run/bike outside:
Droplets in your slipstream travel much further behind you than 2m

So stay out in your 2m lane for longer when you pass someone.^

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/09/stay-20-metres-apart-exercising-scientist-warns-fears-runnerss^/??^
[[https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08
medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08]]8^

"When someone during a run breathes, sneezes or coughs, those particles stay behind in the air.

The person running behind you in the so-called slip-stream goes through this cloud of droplets.^

"Out of the simulations, it appears that social distancing plays less of a role for 2 people in a low wind environment when running/walking next to each other.
The droplets land behind the duo.
^
The risk of contamination is the biggest when people are just behind each other, in each other’s slipstream.

On the basis of these results the scientist advises that
for walking the distance of people moving in the same direction in 1 line should be at least 4–5 meter,
for running and slow biking it should be 10 meters
and for hard biking at least 20 meters.

Also, when passing someone it is advised to already be in different lane at a considerable distance e.g. 20 meters for biking"

Can we have a new thread for when this one inevitably fills up OP? They're the best.

605 deaths in Spain, our lowest figure in 17 days.

all this stuff about droplets in the air because people are breathing what about the ultraviolet light killing of the virus in the sunshine?
breathing is good for your lungs it's important to properly and fully ventilate your lungs, to exercise your intercostal muscles, one reason so many are vulnerable to this illness is they don't exercise enough and their lungs are not healthy
now we are supposed to see runners and cyclists and spreaders of diseases!

Good news about Spain.

Can we have a new thread for when this one inevitably fills up OP? They're the best.

Done.

Is that the final figure, Bird? I've noticed occasionally that Worldometer adds on to the Spanish figure a couple of times in the day. Italy and Spain do both seem to be leveling out, thankfully.

I'm sceptical about the sunshine thing - I mean, it's obviously a major problem in places like Iran, South Africa, India etc. I know flu/colds/other viruses are less common in the summer, but I always thought that was because people are generally healthier, outdoors more, away from central heating etc etc rather than the actual sunshine itself.

It’s amazing isn’t it Neuro?

"now we are supposed to see runners and cyclists and spreaders of diseases!"

No, but we shouldn't ignore science because we don't like it

Those walkers in the slipstream won't get healthier lungs from those droplets

If you read the article, the scientists were just saying to stay out longer in your lane when overtaking
and gave the distances
don't cut back 2m ahead of them

So, be considerate of others when exercising