Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

great thread

Here’s NZ’s definition of ‘recovered’.

www.newsroom.co.nz/2020/04/03/1112728/what-does-recovered-mean

I don’t know what the U.K. criteria is, according to the above article, countries set their own.

Knowing us, we’ve probably got some unattainable standard (two negative tests 48 hours apart or some such) that is impossible to achieve while we have limited tests and have to prioritise sick people and HCPs.

Will try and dig it up, unless any of our resident frontliners can explain it?

Is it correct that actual deaths on a given day are usually later determined to be higher than what is initially reported?

Randomschoolworker19

Yes.
See my graph upthread.

Thanks for this really informative thread

@Barracker

Thanks I just wanted to make sure that I had understood it correctly.

Shameless placemarking

FRANCE I watch French TV although I live in Luxembourg
I have posted on another thread.

I agree this weekend with better weather will see a large number of people (idiots) out and about in parks and open spaces.
If the weather continues to be warm then the Easter weekend could be a disaster.
The criticism of the police has made them back off as in some areas they were following what the politicians were saying and not the law as it stands.
In other country’s the isolation is much more strongly enforced.
In France for example people are FORBIDDEN to travel during this Easter period when many with holiday homes or with family in other parts of the country would be travelling.
This is being strongly monitored with police stopping all cars at the toll stations and anyone without good reason are fined (€134 per person) and turned back. All clearly shown last night on French TV, FR2

In addition people are encouraged to report to the police if the see 2nd home owners or extended family arrive.

Britain’s “light touch” could be a recipe for additional deaths.

Yes, we had people visiting their mothers/children on mother's day saying they didnt see the problem as they were family. I can imagine similar going on over Easter weekend.

@Barracker thanks for this superb thread. This and the Westminstenders thread are some of the best commentary I’ve found.

It’s awful grim reading when you look at the past few days and compare to France and Italy at the same stage

Re: Recovered

On his first press conference back, Matt Hancock described himself as recovered because he had:

• Had a positive test
• Isolated for 7 days
• Did not have temperature after 7 days

Given he is the health Secretary, I'd assume that must be the official definition of recovered.

I'd assume the main reason UK recovery rate appears to be low (I don't think it truly is) is because so few are tested and those who are tested are seriously ill in hospital.

Most people who get the illness like Matt Hancock did (ie mildly) wouldn't have been tested so would not show as recovered.

Placemarking

Sorry if I've missed this.

Is there a statistic re numbers of people admitted to hospital in uk and how many have recovered and gone home?

Interesting that the new “tests” column on worldometer shows we are testing more per Mil/pop than USA, despite Trump’s peacocking

Is there a statistic re numbers of people admitted to hospital in uk and how many have recovered and gone home?

ICNARC publishes weekly reports on patients admitted into ICU. Here is the latest released earlier today:

www.icnarc.org/About/Latest-News/2020/04/04/Report-On-2249-Patients-Critically-Ill-With-Covid-19

Thanks winter that's interesting
Very starkly shows this isn't comparable to seasonal flu

German definition of recovered:

RKI (German Public Health service)

https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/NeuartigesCoronavirus/Situationsberichte/2020-04-03-de.pdf??__blob=publicationFile

"Cases were considered to have recovered if they had a known symptom onset on or before 20/03/2020,
were not reported to have pneumonia or dyspnea,
did not require hospitalisation
or had already been discharged and did not die."

Recent German ICU records
Of those who "left" ICU, 33% died

An unknown % of those still in ICU will die over the next weeks, so it doesn't mean ICU death rate is only 33%

Thanks for both these sets of figures. Very interesting.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong

Thanks for thread

One of the first hotspots in German was caused by a man who went to a carnival. He didn't stop for long anywhere or talk to anyone, but he infected a large number of people whom he passed by

Interesting, that does sound very contagious

Would seem Wales, Scotland and NI are doing quite a bit better at testing than England
From BBC www.bbc.co.uk/news/52149297

www.gov.uk/government/news/smokers-at-greater-risk-of-severe-respiratory-disease-from-covid-19

Emerging evidence from China shows
smokers with COVID-19 are 14 times more likely to develop severe respiratory disease

The sex imbalance is much more pronounced in CV19 than it has been in those critically with the flu - the ‘gendered’ differences (men being more likely to smoke or have worked in heavy industry) would surely be consistent so it must be the biological sex differences causing most of the disparity?

Obviously, once we get to very elderly patients we have more women than men as as starting point...