Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

I thought so 😞. It definitely is sobering and dare I say it, not surprising.

This is not exactly data.
However it is about guidance for Care Homes where anyone over 75 will not be going to Hospital if they are infected with Corona Virus.
Actually it makes SHOCKING reading.

Coronavirus: Care workers 'shocked' by virus treatment guidance www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52155359

This is concerning - lockdown needs to be observed to actually work
With less compliance, it drags out the time that lockdown needs to stay

John Burn-Murdochh@jburnmurdoch*

NEW: in the @10DowningStreet press conference, a slide showed Britons adhering to lockdown by staying home.

I’ve got the same @Google source data, and people in UK & US are still out and about much more than elsewhere

Fate does the graph or increase or comparison look any different if we use the actual figure from seasides link.
From looking at the table alone it appears the increase isn't as steep as the reported daily figures and it's a flatter curve (even though an obvious increase)

It's also interesting at looking at the total deaths for each age as comparative figures as well as for each area.

Health inequality in the USA will likely be highlighted by different CV outcomes in different ethnic and income groups:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/03/detroit-bus-driver-dies-coronavirus-video-passenger-coughing

Michigan is emerging as one of America’s troubling coronavirus hotspots, with nearly 11,000 confirmed cases and more than 400 deaths as of Wednesday.

Public health data from the state of Michigan shows coronavirus is having a disproportionate toll on the state’s black residents.

In a state where only 14% of the total population is black, at least 35% of people who have been confirmed to have coronavirus, and 40% of the dead, are black.

I've done a rough and ready graph comparison of the daily reported deaths we've been tracking, vs the timestamped deaths in the NHS England spreadsheet.
The data is all DAILY NEW cases, not cumulative.

The Orange bars are the daily reported stats we hear on the news every day. Once released, they will not change. A new bar is added each day. Otherwise the orange bars stay static.

The Blue area, though, is the daily data from the England Spreadsheet.
This is the REAL data of how many died on each actual day.
It is a moving picture. Deaths get added to the day retrospectively, as and when test results are returned or post-mortems.
Only after all the data has been properly swept into the correct day and no more deaths are outstanding, will the final picture be known.
This blue area will grow and change every day as it is updated
The blue area, actual timestamped deaths, will grow upwards, and it will grow to the right. It will grow upwards ON the right, and the far left will not change much.
This is because the data in the England spreadsheet is incomplete.
It is added in dribs and drabs. Yesterday's deaths will only include a small fraction of the true deaths yet. It's too early for them to have hit the figures. Deaths from a month ago will probably be fully complete by now and will no longer change.
This becomes obvious when you look at the graph. You can see the point at which we are only getting a fraction of the day's real data.

Some points to note:
The Daily Stats (orange bars) include England, NI, Scotland, and Wales.
The timestamped data (blue area) is ONLY for England. It ought to be smaller in comparison, but it isn't.

If I was to update this graph each day we would be able to see the point at which the data stopped changing, on the left first. We would be able to say something like, "March 12th deaths haven't changed for a week, they are probably accurate and finalised now. But March 29th continues to be updated and grow every day, those figures are not yet accurate"

TLDR:
Orange is what we are being told daily, for the entirety of the UK.
Blue is what has actually happened, in England alone, and is as yet incomplete, especially the very recent days.

Thanks for the new thread and all the work so far.

Enlightening graph there, Barracker, thank you.

Marking place

Thank you for the thread. I need to step away a bit from the news. This is helpful.

Excellent bar chart, barracker
It helps clarify a very confusing mix of data

What I see in those graphs BigChocFrenzy is that the activity that Brits just cannot do these days, Retail & entertainment, has a good compliance level, but the activity that Brits are still able to do, going to Parks, has a poor compliance level. The voluntary aspects of the UK lockdown don't seem to be working.

Fascinating graph Barracker, where did you get the time stamped actual figures?

Thank you!

Super interesting, especially the time-stamped deaths one. So does this incorporate all the non reported cases you were worried about on the last thread? (sorry I haven't had time to catch up yet)

But we are allowed to go to the parks, just keep a sensible distance away.

There is a really interesting German study of the Munich cohort which were the first German cases. A Chinese woman visited a Munich car parts firm in January and infected a few people in a meeting who then went on to infect others. A total of 15 Germans were infected. In all cases, the infection was from direct contact that is, speaking to the person for a while. Although they tested hundreds of people not one low-risk contact was infected.

Just to add, of the hundreds of people tested, only 5% of close contacts were infected and 0 of the low-risk contacts. That is, people were infected when they were talking with the individual not just walking past them nor from being in the same building. And most of those who had a conversation were not infected. It is only a sample of 15 infected, but they tested hundreds of potential contacts and all the employees of the firm.

I am really hopeful about the German village study which may provide clear information about what does and does not spread the virus. It sounds like all the stuff about lift buttons and door handles may not be a source of infection.

"the activity that Brits are still able to do, going to Parks, has a poor compliance level."

I think you would expect more people in parks as they're an obvious place to do exercise if you live close by?

Brits are (mostly) following the law
but ignoring the govt advice

Maybe the govt should either stop bothering to give advice,
or if they consider their advice important, make it into actual law

Traffic on UK roads has reportedly increased again

Checking in, thanks again for the threads

The question is what kind of impact lots of people going to the parks has on transmission. The fine weather this weekend might concentrate minds.

As Eyewhisker posts above, we still don't have a decent idea of how the virus is transmitted in practice.

One of the first hotspots in German was caused by a man who went to a carnival

He didn't stop for long anywhere or talk to anyone, but he infected a large number of people whom he passed by
and then they went home and to work and infected others, who .....

I think the different ways of living do have an affect.

For example we have lots of communal gardens around here and lots of estate open space. Many people don't have gardens so the open space outside their flat is their garden. They aren't going to open greens and parks etc. They aren't driving to areas of open space. They aren't even mixing with people outside their households. But I'm sure it can look like lack of compliance. But I'm on the fence with whether evidence places them at risk for sharing an outside space of grass at a different time than others!
Not many people walking around where I live that I've noticed. But there is definitely a lot of close living with flats and balconies etc.
It's what I've seen in Italy and Spain too and what I've experienced from years living in Spain.

What to have as guidance and what to put into law is a very interesting question. Traditionally in the UK the tendency is to minimise what's put into law. But if, purely as an illustration, 5% of the population doing its own thing gives us an indefinite period of very restricted life, at what point do we have to focus on the 5%?