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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

992 replies

Barracker · 03/04/2020 18:10

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions. Flowers

OP posts:
Thread gallery
56
DuLANGDuLANGDuLANG · 10/04/2020 12:20

This thread began a week ago. Thanks to everyone who has participated!

Fingers crossed today’s numbers really do signify good news for Spain.

BirdandSparrow · 10/04/2020 12:25

It's being reported in El País as today's figure. Worldometers figures often don't seem to be correct to me, I've seen mistakes there more than once for Spain's figures. But, this is a holiday week so even more things are shut than normal so the report says we need to be cautious until Tuesday and there may be a slight uptick when people go back to work on Monday
elpais.com/sociedad/2020-04-10/el-numero-de-muertes-por-coronavirus-cae-a-605-el-mas-bajo-desde-hace-mas-de-dos-semanas.html

NeurotrashWarrior · 10/04/2020 12:35

Neuro that is one problem about schools lots had to shut after the 12 week group was announced.

Yes we were on our last legs, also because we had an outbreak of tonsillitis and norovirus on top. A number had shut locally on the days before, before the Wednesday official closure.

NeurotrashWarrior · 10/04/2020 12:36

It’s amazing isn’t it Neuro?

Bodies are evolved to be pretty brilliant. I wish public guidance was firmer though.

BigChocFrenzy · 10/04/2020 12:40

"I'm sceptical about the sunshine thing"

Main benefit of sunshine is that exposure increases the build of Vitamin D within our bodies
which helps the immune system

(yes, I know there are Vit D tablets, but I always prefer the natural method when available

  • sunlight was encouraged by my GPs in Germany, long before COVID)

What has given "sunlight" a bad rep is the daft idea it can help once you are infected
It will NOT
Once a virus is actually in your body, sunlight is bugger all use

Also, some evidence that sunlight above a certain level may inhibit some viruses from reproduction on surfaces
Winter sunlight will not help, because it's not strong enough
Not enough evidence about COVID

Some earlier papers about sunlight on other viruses, but I only have this bio-warfare link atm (!)

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1280232/

"UV radiation from the sun is the primary germicide in the environment."

NewAccountForCorona · 10/04/2020 13:15

That makes sense BigChoc. Thanks so much for your contributions to these threads. I've been following your links down lots of rabbit holes!

peridito · 10/04/2020 14:06

everyone is now chatting away over on thread 4

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3876462-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-4?pg=2

LWJ70 · 14/04/2020 08:26

If you were in any doubt that latitude and covid 19 deaths are linked somehow:

Recent call from three UK based researchers for hospitals to urgently analyse serum vitamin D3 levels from covid 19 patients:

www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19 and Vitamin D Information.pdf?dl=0

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
Jux · 15/04/2020 17:03

LWJ70, what does the red line indicate?

LilMissRe · 15/04/2020 19:18

does anyone know why the new thread (4) is not accepting any new messages?

HostessTrolley · 15/04/2020 19:31

Because it’s full probably x

Barracker · 15/04/2020 20:38

Thread 4 filled up faster than I realised!

I've created thread 5 now.

OP posts:
LWJ70 · 16/04/2020 08:37

@Jux

Great question. The red line is the numbers of world deaths occurring at a specific latitude on 22nd March (it would be interesting to see an updated plot).

The blue bar chart shows the total population at that latitude.

The significance of this is as follows:

If covid 19 affects all people in the same way no matter where they live, on average, the number of deaths would have the the same peak latitude as the population peak latitude- but it does not.

You can see clearly that the death peak is at approx 40 degrees north whilst the population peak is at approx 20 degrees north.

This means there is a bias towards people dying the further north they live - well a bias towards people living between the 40th and 50th parallel, north. London, Madrid, Lombardy and New York all lie in this region and have all come out of a long, dark, cold winter.

We all know that vitamin D levels are lowin these regions, unless diet counterbalances this - see Japan, Scandinavia, Iceland etc .

For all other info, including vit D suppression of cytokine storms, this is the study for the multiple data analysis related to this:
www.dropbox.com/s/ka7h4fbi7xdz9s9/Covid-19%20and%20Vitamin%20D%20Information.pdf

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3
Jux · 16/04/2020 12:07

Thanks, LWJ70. I can't see the chart too well even when it enlarges on MN, mainly due to rapidly fading sight and old specs which would have been replaced had we not been in lockdown! so couldn't really see much beyond the red line and the blue bars. Makes much more sense now.

Bifflepants · 16/04/2020 22:51

Can someone do me a link to thread 5, I can't find it.

Bifflepants · 17/04/2020 06:25

Thank you!

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