Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 3

[Barracker]

Welcome to thread 3 of the daily updates.

Resource links:
Worldometer UK page
Financial Times Daily updates and graphs
HSJ Coronavirus updates
Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Centre
NHS England stats, including breakdown by Hospital Trust
Covidly.com to filter graphs using selected data filters
ONS statistics for CV related deaths outside hospitals, released weekly each Tuesday

Thank you to all contributors for their factual, data driven, and civil discussions.

Actually I thought we'd hit 1,000 today so I think 708 not too bad. Obviously tragic For the families.

I think the highest number of deaths on a single day recorded in Italy so far has been 919.

I’m still not clear whether our predicted peak a week tomorrow is the peak in terms of numbers of new cases or deaths. The Daily Mail (I know) suggests it’s deaths, which could reach around 1,000 a day by next weekend. But surely we haven’t hit our peak infection rate yet as we’re only two weeks into lockdown. I’m confused!

Cases down in UK from 4,450 to 3,375.... Not bad news but as I said above, it’s too early to read too much into it.

Didnt France have over 1000 yesterday?

Yes the number of deaths is still climbing, but it is encouraging that the number of new cases is beginning to show signs of levelling out. The drop of 715 new cases today is quite a large fall and could be an anomaly so I wonder if we might see a higher number tomorrow.

Over the last 4 days (including the latest results released half an hour ago), new cases have been as follows:

1 Apr 4,324
2 Apr 4,244
3 Apr 4,450
4 Apr 3,735

Source: datastudio.google.com/reporting/d8319ea4-170e-4204-8f83-ab4c3cead082/page/1M

Although it is still too early to say for sure - and of course, how the British public react to the nice weather this weekend and the imminent long Easter weekend soon after will play a huge role - it seems at the moment that the spread might be slowing (I cannot emphasise might enough).

This would make sense given that incubation times are normally within a 2 week range and we are almost 2 weeks into lockdown.

It is not surprising that deaths are still rising at this stage. If, for example, the average time from diagnosis to death was 2 weeks, we could potentially see the number of cases fall for a fortnight before we see any improvement in the daily number of deaths.

Totally agree Derby, but here in Spain on super lockdown, a drop from 950 is welcome, even if we're not quite at the peak. That was so awful. I mean, every death is awful, but almost 1000 a day is terryfying.

10,984 tests were carried out yesterday in England.

6570 people were tested

I feel daft asking this. I understand some people will have been tested multiple times, but 4400 odd re-tests seems a lot, are there other reasons for the difference?

I'm not sure which thread it was where there was a suggestion that BAME people may be more likely to be deficient in vitamin D which is important in fighting respiratory disorders.

I'm not sure which thread it was where there was a suggestion that BAME people may be more likely to be deficient in vitamin D which is important in fighting respiratory disorders.

I had wondered this recently

French numbers have been really high the last couple of days as they are adding in previously unrecorded care home deaths. I’m not sure how many countries are actually including care home deaths in their totals.

I thought this was a good graph, which shows that social distancing is slowing down the number of cases:

200 odd deaths a week ago so "only" doubled once and 3/4 in a week. Was every 2.5 to 3 days.

Youngest victim was 5 years old

Watford hospital has closed its A&E dept to all emergencies today. Doesn’t look good at all

Is that because there was nobody in there?

I'm not convinced about new cases slowing. I've been quite unwell with suspected covid and pneumonia for over 3 weeks and I'm still at home. The first week they said 'we will admit you if your lung function drops below x or it lasts more than 10 days'. By week 2 the threshold had changed so I wasn't admitted. Week 3 it has changed again. I've been told by doctors that I should be in hospital for oxygen and monitoring but they just don't have space but I could deteriorate rapidly so if I do call 999. If we are only testing people in hospital but also raising (lowering?) the threshold for admission so only those needing critical care then there will be more people in the community more seriously unwell but not being tested. It also explains our shocking mortality rate for hospitalised patients.

Meanwhile hospitals in America, which are reported as being war zones, are in fact completely empty. Hmmm

Link for that please @mindproject

@Quarantinequeen

Totally agree with that analysis, was thinking the same thing myself with out your direct experience. If they criteria for getting into hospitals is stricter (obvious from the high mortality rate) it stands to reason there are likely more and more cases out there in the community.

I can't do links. Check out Dana Ashlie on YouTube.

I see your expert, peer reviewed research insight has migrated from the "does 5g cause coronavirus" thread over to here mind

Wow quarantine and yet we were told early intervention helps.

I am capable of writing on more than one thread.

We still do not not the real number of deaths per day though. They are behind on reporting. The other day 150ish were reported and its now confirmed the real figure was 450ish. A good chunk of deaths that happened in the last 24 hours will not have been added to todays figures. The true trend in death rate will only become clear over the next few weeks.

Mindproject might like to look Inside a New York hospital

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-one-new-york-hospital-is-coping-with-the-crisis-11968114

The ambulances keep coming - the sound of sirens a constant theme.

Patient after patient arrives with breathing problems.

Inside Brooklyn's largest hospital,
Dr Eitan Dickman, vice chair of emergency medicine, tells me they have had to rapidly adapt to an overwhelming number of COVID-199^ patients.

A conspiracy theorist, excellent 😂 could we stick to facts please. Maybe start your own thread for ‘theories’ rather than post them here.