To think Trump will win

[HappyCamel]

I'm living in the Southern States. I think he might well do it. Clinton is coming off as seriously corrupt. No one thought BREXIT would actually happen either. What's the feeling on the U.K. side of the pond?

Not presently in the UK, but Nate Silver says Clinton's chances of winning are over 80%.

I worry that they're polling the wrong people

Nah I don't think he'll win

I don't know.

I think she's got it after the last debates. Dear God I hope so.

I don't think he'll do it. Clinton is so far ahead in the polls isn't she? Brexit polls were neck and neck.

I'm terrified he will win.

And I can't understand how this be even a possibility. Who is voting for him??

He doesn't have:

• the black vote
• the hispanic vote
• the female vote
• the gay vote
• the muslim vote

It is possible as I think the Trump voters are more likely to turn out and vote.

What deathstare said.

I don't trust the polls these days.

I think he might do. After everything in the last few weeks, and he's still only 4 point behind?

Saying that, I'd find it very hard voting for Clinton too. What a choice.

Yes, I'm terrified he's going to win. I think they're polling a lot of "shy" Trump voters - don't want to admit it but will vote for him on the day.

His "nasty woman" comment from the last debate may well catalyse a few voters.

I don't understand why anyone is voting for him. He's not the non-establishment candidate. He IS the establishment. Crap at his job, entitled and living off inherited wealth. Oh and sexist and racist. Are there really that many hate-filled people in America?

I just want to tell everyone to go out and vote! So many people I know didn't vote for brexit (despite my rants!) As they thought it was a given we would stay. This is my fear that will give trump the edge

I can well believe he might win. So depressing. I'm feeling scared about the state of the world.

Everyone shut up, let the Americans worry just be happy we have a great leader of Stalin pulling the UK through Brexit

Yes, there are plenty of white men and women who hate black people, hispanic people, Muslims, and anyone non-Christian who is pro-choice and/or anti guns. They'd never vote for a democrat in a million years.

That said I think she will do it. In 4 years hopefully there will be a better choice as she's unlikely to do 2 terms.

I don't think he'll win. Clinton will. The lesser of two evils.

I wonder if Clinton would still be in the running if she's been heard saying things like 'grabbing men's cocks' and them liking her power.

Despicable man.

I do for the same reason that Brexit won; disenfranchised voters looking for someone 'different' and the chance to shake up the political system. It was written a few months ago, but Michael Moore wrote quite a scary article about it: http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

I'm still a bit anxious he might win, but the polls look pretty solid to me, and the early voting signs look good for Clinton.

I dont think the UK referendum is a good precedent because the 'leave' vote was ahead in plenty of the polls for a while before Brexit, it's just we still somehow doubted it would really happen. Yes the YouGov exit poll was 4% off, but most places didn't even do exit polls due to the lack of historical data from referendums to be confident of accurate polling methods. There's far more data historically for US elections for pollsters to use, so the polls are more likely to be accurate - and Clinton's lead is significantly bigger than the error in Brexit-exit polling was.

And then there's the electoral college.

Laura222 comparing TM to Stalin? Are you drunk? Have you read any history books?

I'm trying to trust that common sense will win out but you just never know. All my American friends are extremely vocal in their opposition to him but I was astounded that the conservatives got in and then again by Brexit, given that all the social media I am on indicated the opposite of those outcomes. I'm worried, I do admit.

I studied history at Cambridge....

The problem (I think) is that while he doesn't have the vote of significant sections of the population, that doesn't mean they'll then vote for Clinton. She seems to be so disliked (which I just don't really understand) - I think the turnout will be very low. The Trump supporters will definitely vote - the Hispanic woman who hates Trump but dislikes Clinton may just not bother.

I work with quite a few Americans and they are all pretty unanimous in their fears that Trump will win. Not so much cos of people actively voting for him,but rather people not liking either candidate. A bit of a Brexit shocker where people don't bother voting then are shocked at the result.