To think Trump will win

[HappyCamel]

I'm living in the Southern States. I think he might well do it. Clinton is coming off as seriously corrupt. No one thought BREXIT would actually happen either. What's the feeling on the U.K. side of the pond?

I wonder if he will, though. Why would he bother coming to UK as Prez? He wants to flirt with Putin instead, after all. Has Bigger fish to fry.

ps: isn't QEII like the ultimate in 'Establishment' figures. Why would he want HRM's blessing.

Don't worry, Bluesrunthegame, the Queen is used to older men who should keep their mouths shut.

US politics is about much more than just who is president. Trump's massive unpopularity is giving the Democrats the chance to win back the Senate.

If Democrats have both the presidency and the Senate they can then nominate their choice of Supreme Court Judge and it becomes very difficult for the Republicans to prevent them.

The Republicans are rightly terrified of this scenario. Trump's craziness is costing them a presidency, the Senate and a Supreme Court Justice.

I think he might. We were told we would vote to remain and as a Tory activist we know none of us foresaw the 2015 Conservative majority.

If Trump wins, he will eventually make a state visit to the UK and our queen will have to greet him, shake his hand, hold a banquet for him etc. I'm trying to imagine her face as she does this. Very glad it's her not me! All the palaces in the world wouldn't make up for that.

Tbf she has to do that for a few dignatories that most would find disgraceful

*Whereas Nate Silver who correctly and publicly predicted all 51 results in the last election gives Hillary an 80%+ chance of winning.

Yeah, I think I know who I'm believing*

The same Nate Silver that gave Trump a 10% chance of getting the necessary electoral college votes for the Republican nomination? The same Nate Silver that predicted a Labour win at the last General election?

It's all about the largest swing states.
HC needs 270 votes, if I'm not mistaken. She already seems to have 260 fairly secure, so she only needs one largest swing state to clinch it.
It doesn't look good for Trump, but, it's just over to weeks and who knows?

Two weeks...

fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-i-acted-like-a-pundit-and-screwed-up-on-donald-trump/

Why Nate Silver failed to predict Trump's nomination. The presidential race has far more statistics available.

"I wonder if he will, though. Why would he bother coming to UK as Prez?"

You're kidding, right? Imagine Trump enjoying a private audience with the Queen followed by a full state banquet in his honour. That kind of high status display that money can't buy is, I'm sure, one of the reasons he wants to be president.

Nate Silver has admitted he got it wrong about Trumps winning the nomination because he basically ignored his own polling data. The polling was showing Trump would win, Silver just couldn't believe people would be so idiotic so looked for other results.

He has said he won't make the same mistake again, and is purely going on the huge amount of polling data available.

Brexit isn't a comparable example as the polls weren't actually wrong - they had Leave and Remain pretty much tied in the last few weeks, with Leave starting to pull ahead in a few polls. Again, people just didn't want to believe it so went in hoping Remain would win.

The last GE results were within the 4 point polling margin of error. Trump is way below that at about 7 points behind.

I'm hopeful it will be a landslide defeat for Trump. The fact that he's not miles ahead in polls in places like Indiana, Arianna, Nevada or Texas is very worrying for the Republicans.

Don't worry, Bluesrunthegame, the Queen is used to older men who should keep their mouths shut.

:-D

The conservatives in the U.K. won and the polls were seriously wrong. So polls can be wrong.

Arianna Arizona 😞

The conservatives in the U.K. won and the polls were seriously wrong. So polls can be wrong.

Which states do you think are being polled incorrectly?

I've looked up one of my friends (female as it happens who is v anti HC and am going to copy below what she posts because some of you are saying you can't see why people are anti HC. Btw, I don't think many people have a problem with having a female president per se.

Also, I want to be clear that I don't have an agenda here. I'm don't have a vote and haven't formed an opinion as to which one is better.

Voting for HC is aiding and abetting a felon.

HC: if Republicans but so much faith in a God why do they need guns?
Answer: they don't trust Democrats

HC is pro abortion up to full term. She'll kill babies but protect terrorists.

HC lied about Benghazi

HC defended the rapist of a 12 year old early in her law career and victim shamed her, getting evidence of her "moral character" admitted.

Ever noticed how the media ask Ivanka about her father's treatment of women but not Chelsea.

HC's opinion and vote can be bought, she'll do anything for money. Trump is wealthy enough that he'll do the thing that benefits the country rather than enrich himself. (Lots of posts along these lines).

There's skepticism about the Trump assault claims. Basically, how come they all remembered three weeks before the election and they are being paid by HC. Meanwhile BC's affairs and assaults are well documented.

If American women are so offended by Trump's use of naughty words who the hell. bought 80 million copies of Shades of Grey.

Re the emails: if you asked to see your husband's cell phone and he said "no problem" then deleted 90% of the pics and
Emails before giving it to you wouldn't you be suspicious.

Actually I just found an image which sums it up.

I think he going win.
As usa don't think a woman is up for job .

I think a lot more people have a problem with a female president than you might expect.

There's some excellent Republican propaganda there. In the interests of fairness there seem to be a few bits missing from the Trump side of the picture.

The 50 shades thing seems like a deliberate attempt to miss the point.

Yes, it was one sided. I looked at one Republican friend's posts because several people could see the anti Trump side but not the anti Hillary. I think Trump's flaws are probably more obvious!

That's a good summary of some of the complaints people have about Hillary.

There are more here if you're interested www.forwardprogressives.com/debunking-anti-hillary-clinton-myths-lies-conspiracies/

They're all pretty easily refuted but people don't tend to listen to details, especially once they've made up their minds.

Happycamel.

Where does that photo come from, DT did a lot more than call women fat 20 years ago!
As for HC side, what backs up those accusations.

I'm no fan of either of them and I'm not American but seriously, where did you find that?

Sorry, i see you have already answered.

It's not that's it's one sided. You'd expect that. I think the problem is that some of it, if not a lot of it is untrue and has been debunked.

I understand why some people don't like Hilary. I'm just not sure how much of it is actually grounds for not liking her, IYSWIM.

Agree with rafel

I have read a little around the subject and i cannot find any definites

Its all accusations and debunking and people saying "she is a liar/thief/as bad as trump/bengazi" but with nothing to back it up

Unlike trump who only has to open his mouth