To think Trump will win

[HappyCamel]

I'm living in the Southern States. I think he might well do it. Clinton is coming off as seriously corrupt. No one thought BREXIT would actually happen either. What's the feeling on the U.K. side of the pond?

We have friends in the USA, 2 couples. One of the couples plan to vote for Trump as they say Clinton is so corrupt that they would vote for anyone to keep her out although they say they feel bad about it. The other couple are split, he will vote for Clinton as he feels she is the lesser of the evils but the wife says Clinton is just as awful an option as Trump so will vote for one of the others.

These are nice, middle class, educated people and, if they are this divided, there appears to be no good option

I think there's a whole 'people in glass houses shouldn't throw stones' thing going on. Keeping his trap shut may have been a better option.

What happens with the two trials he'll potentially be involved with between his election and inauguration? Presumably that's a whole other clusterfuck waiting in the wings.

Btw, I don't think many people have a problem with having a female president per se

In their heads they don't.
It's mostly that women tend to have to meet much higher standards than men.

BTW, most women didn't come out 3 weeks before the election with allegations.

For one there was some "urgency" because Trump tried to pass his bragging of assault as just words. Those women came forward to say they were not just words, no.
The media and the electorate were ready to listen, given that these were allegations that were corroborated by his own words.

And if you look it up, Trump has been accused of assault for years, with a few news articles and women's testimonies as far back as May.

Definitely not a new thing.

The Trump side is definitely missing some criticisms- I'm not that informed on these things, nor do I have a vote, but I could add:

has bragged about sexually assaulting women
has been accused of sexually assaulting several women
has not produced his tax returns
has boasted about not paying federal taxes
has failed to pay multiple contractors
is a billionaire playboy (not self made) reality tv star who is not fit for political office

And I'm sure that's not all of them.

The Americans living in the UK that I personally know are voting for Hillary.

According to Real Clear Politics Texas has gone from "leaning Trump" to "toss up"; reducing the electoral college votes Trump is projected to win by 38. The situation is now as follows:

Clinton 262
Trump 126
"Toss up" 150.

Of that last category of states, the most recent polls are as follows:

Texas (38 votes): 21 Oct: Trump 46, Clinton 43.
Florida (29 votes): 21 Oct: Clinton 46, Trump 43.
Ohio (18 votes): 19 Oct dead heat.
Georgia (16 votes): 20 Oct: Trump 47, Clinton 43
North Carolina (15 votes) 14 Oct: Clinton 45, Trump 43
Arizona (11) 15 Oct: Clinton 43, Trump 38
Minnesota (10) 23 Sept dead heat
Nevada (6) 17 Oct: Clinton 47, Trump 40
Iowa (6) 6 Oct: Trump 43 Clinton 39

Bear in mind also Utah (6): Trump 30, McMullin 29, Clinton 25.

Because the site calculates 'lean' on a rolling average of polls, it downplays Clinton's recent surge in support. Given that Clinton only needs 8+1 of the electoral college votes in the above seats, this all looks like victory for her. On the basis of the polls, if she wins either Florida or North Carolina, she's won the election. If she doesn't she still only needs any combination of another two.

I'd be inclined to trust the pollsters. The only thing I remember them not predicting very well in recent times is the 2015 UK GE, and the UK always has a weird "shy Tory" effect that isn't replicated elsewhere (nb - contrary to what some have said, the pollsters predicted Brexit and Indyref accurately).

Oh yes...

The whole birther business
Wants to ban Muslims from entering the US (since then he's been forced to change that to Muslims from certain countries - still unconstitutional under the First Amendmemt)
As a landlord, discriminated against black tenants
Encourages violence at his rallies
Insisted despite all evidence to the contrary that millions of Muslim-Americans celebrated 9/11
Says Mexico is sending rapists, drug dealers and criminals to the US
Claimed a judge was biased because he is Mexican
Said women should be punished for having abortions
Calls women he doesn't like ‘fat pigs’, ‘dogs’, ‘slobs’, and ‘disgusting animals.”
Said he wouldn't have sexually assaulted some of the women accusing him because they're not attractive enough
Threatened to jail his political opponent if he wins

All of this is easily verifiable.

I was so shocked by Brexit - now feel like anything can happen!

toadinthehole

Interesting post... Minnesota poll of a 'tie' differs from the average Clinton winning margin of recent polls (ie Nate Silver) by 6%. That state alone would push her over the top.

I don't know why they have to conduct Presidential elections throughout the country. They could just do it in Florida and be done with the rest.

I think it was Isaac Asimv who wrote a short story where American elections ended up with the polling of one man.

I thought he might win early on - but I think he's blown it. For the avoidance of doubt - I am in the UK and don't want him to win. As for the OP asking what the view over here is, most people I know here who have an opinion seem horrified at the prospect of a Trump Presidency.

Right now, all indications are that Hillary will win convincingly. But two weeks is an increasingly long time in politics!

And people have got to get out and vote. That could make a big difference in some swing states.

Let's hope not.

Trump is getting more like Hitler every day. He sounds totally deranged. My FIL thinks he should win because he is independently rich so he can't be bought.

He is like an annoying preteen. No actual policy beyond 'I'm gonna kill the bad guys. USA! USA! Wooooo!' Has nobody actually asked him just how he is going to do all his miracles and got a strait answer? How can even the most star struck follower not wonder at his lack of practical plans?

Any other country in the world and America would be threatening invasion.

TisMe - don't forget that Hitler was elected...