1 in 585 trans women are currently incarcerated for sexual offences

[GCITC]

Thanks to the census data, we can now show that 1 in every 585 trans women and England and Wales are convicted sex offenders.

That compares to 1 in every 2500-3000 men and 1 in every 243000 women.

twitter.com/mar2vickers/status/1611484662093828127?t=qo7fa3NkWyf_Qe-hRb9sUw&s=19

twitter.com/ripx4nutmeg/status/1611682182405160961?t=Kv1nsuxwEr3WlpagKYi7jA&s=19

So which is it? Are trans women inherently more dangerous than men that don't identify as trans, or are men pretending to me trans in order to offend?

The answer doesn't actually matter. The same solution fixes both issues.

Fewer

The OP makes much of female on female violence which I don't want to down play, but all things being equal I'd take my chances against another female in a fight over any man

Yes, I rolled my eyes when she said she'd rather share with an MTF trans person. Not all of them, you wouldn't.

This reminds me of when I was studying psychology and my professor pointed out that paraphilias cluster. So if an individual has one paraphilia then they are far more likely to have more than the average person you sit next to on a bus.

Fewer

Quite right, thanks. Careless writing. Please feel free to answer the actual question though!

Are those stats for people just in jail? Because there have been cases where folks have been let off incarceration because it ‘would be hard for them’ 🙄

Also that’s convicted. A tiny tiny percentage of sex offenders are convicted.

Yes, are these all convictions ie crime stats, or are they inmate stats in prison?

Are those stats for people just in jail?

Yes, it's calculated from prison population / total population. So the "sex offenders" headline suggesting it's looking at lifetime is wrong. It's "incarcerated for sex offenses", looking at the present.

terryleather · Today 18:43

The OP makes much of female on female violence which I don't want to down play, but all things being equal I'd take my chances against another female in a fight over any man no matter how he identified plus any sexual assault/rape couldn't end in pregnancy.

Female on female violence is very much less likely to end in serious injuries to either party. When did you last hear of a woman killing someone in a one punch attack?

They don't use their fists.

This is correct.

I've reported the threat and asked for the title to be changed so it is more accurate.

Blimey, you don't half talk a load of old rubbish, don't you?

Just in case there's anyone who hasn't seen this already, please sign and share the petition below. We're nearly two thirds of the way there

www.mumsnet.com/talk/petitions_noticeboard/4668426-petition-update-the-equality-act-to-make-clear-the-characteristic-sex-is-biological-sex

Didn’t a woman who’d experienced rape/sexual assault in prison from a transwoman go to court, assisted by Kate Coleman?

So the assertion on the AMA thread, that no women are at risk, is wrong!

Probably for the best. She doesn’t appear to be listening to anyone’s concerns!!

WildIris · Today 19:02

She doesn’t appear to be listening to anyone’s concerns!!

Unfortunately, you get a lot of people like that. They Just Know Best and give us a pitying look and a patronising hair ruffle. And some of them have been elected.

Unfortunately, you get a lot of people like that. They Just Know Best and give us a pitying look and a patronising hair ruffle

Life must be so much easier when you know everyone who disagrees with you is just ignorant and/or a bigot.

Some of us live in hard mode and have to actually think about evidence and logic and shit. Dammit.

Thanks@heathspeedwell
"This reminds me of when I was studying psychology and my professor pointed out that paraphilias cluster. So if an individual has one paraphilia then they are far more likely to have more than the average person you sit next to on a bus."

...

This is part of the point I was trying to make earlier in this thread. Along the lines of:

Being a male sex offender makes you much more likely than the average man to adopt a trans identity.

But it's still true to say that a trans identified man is statistically more likely to be a danger to women.

TRA response on Twitter.

twitter.com/joss_prior/status/1611806123140567040?t=DBXtF5mZ9TsfUO3chFE_qA&s=19

Gender-critical propaganda is often hilarious because they overshoot.

99% of binary trans people go onto HRT.

Trans women effectively, chemically castrate ourselves to a degree.

Which is a treatment to make cis men less of a risk.

But we're still MORE of a threat?

Gonks!!

Ok Joss, but what about the stats?

I see the performative "women are much more violent than men" narrative is continuing on that forensic thread, apparently mental health nurses would rather face a locked ward of threatening men than women too. Eye roll.

Yep, seen that defense on twitter.

Trans women effectively, chemically castrate ourselves to a degree. Which is a treatment to make cis men less of a risk. But we're still MORE of a threat?

Well, yes, the stats say you are. Not a very good argument. If the hormone treatment has made them safer, but they're STILL a factor of five more likely to be in for sex offenses than other men, then, wowsers.

Do we have any stats on the efficacy of hormone suppression?

If we then had a good estimate of the percentage of "transwomen" on hormone treatment, we could come up with an estimate for how incredibly dangerous a non-hormone-suppressed transwoman must be.

Trans women effectively, chemically castrate ourselves to a degree.

I want to see the medical literature on that claim.

'To a degree'?

If we then had a good estimate of the percentage of "transwomen" on hormone treatment,

Tsk, Joss gave you an extremely reliable and no doubt robustly evidenced figure, 99%.