Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

Hi I tend to lurk on this thread and find it very interesting.

I am due to fly from Heathrow on weds morning at 8am, we are travelling up from the south coast early hrs of the morning. Im wondering what is the risk of disruption to our travel plans if I could have your advice kitten ? TIA

Definitely Not

Warnings out for Thursday and Friday for northern England and much of Scotland.
www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-03-09

fatisnotafeeling I know it seems mad at such a short range, but it's impossible to know at the moment. If any does occur it, it could be hard to grit for, with the potential for rain to wash away early gritting attempts. The latest UKV through just grazes snow across the far south coast. It seems to change each run.

Sorry that I can't be more helpful.

Yay! We have a snow warning! Well done @OhYouBadBadKitten !

I mean, obvs, I know you don't issue the warnings, but I always feel like they're a little gift from you!

Oo yes, heavy snow warning for us in Yorkshire for Thurs/Friday ☃️
Will they change their minds though?
I feel I'm being gaslighted by the met office

Is that for you too @GloriaSmud 🛷🛷🛷

ECM goes a bit mad on Wednesday into Friday. It tends to overdo precipitation, but by the end of Wednesday it gives a snow depth estimate of around 10cm in parts of southern coastal areas and by the end of Friday 45cm along the Scottish border(ish)!

Not one model agrees with another one. If you meet any meterologists at the end of this week and they are uncharacteristically bald, you'll know that they've pulled all their hair out.

Some forecasts saying 10 for London on Friday.

really hoping for no snow this week and double figures by Friday.

Tokyo

One thing I should point out about the Thursday/Friday warning is where it sits on the impact matrix. If it gets any more certain then it will trip into the amber part of the matrix. Theoretically it could warrant a red warning eventually. But they are issued with great thought and consultation.

Remember it is an impact matrix, so it isn't based on snow depth, but rather the potential for how much impact it could have on travel, health and energy security. If weather is going to just affect a few poor sheep, then they don't get the same sort of impacts as if it hits a major city.

Bloody marvellous! If you're in the very fortunate position (me) of WFH in a nice warm house! Maybe a bit Eeek for others though...

Crufts is at the NEC Birmingham this week, starting Thursday. There will be lots of people
travelling with dogs in their vehicles from all over the country so it might be difficult for some. We are driving up Wednesday evening from south coast, hopefully it'll be ok 🤞

If you meet any meterologists at the end of this week and they are uncharacteristically bald, you'll know that they've pulled all their hair out.
😀

A new warning has been issued this lunchtime for Wednesday.

@hoochycrone I'm covered by the warning tonight into tomorrow - metoffice are saying 'light snow' in the early hours so hopefully there'll be a light covering by the time we get up tomorrow morning ❄

And now the sky looks weird.

Today's thoughts from Netweather reflect the mess that the models are in uncertainty.

Our local press aka Daily Post. It's Armageddon I tell ya 🙄

Surrey/Hampshire: Wednesday morning, AROME and ECM, 12z are both saying snow. GFS 18z is not agreeing.

Is there any particular model that is good for snow predictions?

I'm afraid not nannynck. It's just a case of wait and see.

Well, the supermarket was way busier than usual at 8.30. Staff said it's been like that all day. Must be snow worries.

@OhYouBadBadKitten

I have a hospital appointment early morning Wednesday in London

any advice?

Thank you.

Is there likely to be travel disruption?

One of those days when out walking the dog, the front of me was warm from the sun and my back frozen from the northerly wind.
Think Edinburgh might see snow on Thursday evening and Sunday, when we get some easterlies and perhaps the Forth streamers get going.
Until then, more sunshine 😎

I visited a physio today sussing out the location there's no way I could manage the route the clinic is up a steep hill on the river. One skid back down I'd be in the drink. My appointment is on Wednesday. In my old car even Icy conditions are dodgy

Morning all. Any snow reports?
This mornings precipitation band is fragmenting as it pushes south and looks to have mostly been rain.

There's still a risk of some southern snow and rain tonight into tomorrow, but it looks like it may not push far at all into England from the south. The next risk does look more cohesive and perhaps more substantial. It starts tomorrow evening in the south. At the moment it looks like it might start as a wintry mix before turning more firmly into snow. So I would urge just to keep an eye on this one for potential disruption through Wednesday evening.

Then the risk turns to more central areas on Thursday and travelling further north on Friday up into northern England and Scotland. This looks less of a mix and more of a snow event.