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Weather

Winter Weather outlook

934 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:37

Disclaimer: I'm only a weather enthusiast, not a professional meterologist. Take anything I say with a good pinch of salt, I do get things wrong sometimes!

In a normal year I wouldn't dream of starting a winter weather outlook thread at the beginning of September. This year there is a great deal of anxiety and interest about what the weather may hold for us.

Outlooks at this point can only ever be rough hand waving exercises, taking into consideration lots of factors and are likely to be inaccurate. I've been doing a lot of thinking and research over the last couple of weeks as to what might happen this winter. At this point the honest answer is: I haven't a scooby! (this might make this thread a bit pointless at this time!)

Looking at various long term models, solutions range from wet, mild and stormy, to cold and blocked or cold and snowy! I have an instinct that we are more likely to end up with a milder, dry scenario, with some colder incursions at times, but that is instinct and not based on anything quantifiable.

For someone who can talk through the various factors at depth, watch Gavin's winter outlook videos on Youtube.

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Snowflakes2 · 04/09/2022 11:38

Watching with interest, I do love reading your threads.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:51

Sorry, posted too early. It started to rain, so I had to sort the washing out. Grin

The met office contingency forecast says it is most likely to be a very average autumn, with some bias to it being warmer and wetter than usual compared to being cooler and drier. However, they then say that the west and northwest are more likely to suffer from the impact of rain than usual.

They hint about colder weather at the end of the three month period.

www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-son-v2.pdf

So to summarise: It's too early to know about winter yet.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:53

I am very nervous about having written about my instinctive feeling. I may well look like a total plonker in a few months time. Wink Please, please don't take that any more seriously than you would peering at a bit of seaweed and guessing!

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Mummapenguin20 · 04/09/2022 14:24

Ooo following….

Bagpiss · 04/09/2022 14:35

OhYouBadBadKitten · 04/09/2022 11:53

I am very nervous about having written about my instinctive feeling. I may well look like a total plonker in a few months time. Wink Please, please don't take that any more seriously than you would peering at a bit of seaweed and guessing!

😀

I'm in anyway.

mommybear1 · 04/09/2022 14:53

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten following!

TokyoSushi · 04/09/2022 22:39

Checking in! Hopefully this eventually evolves into my absolute favourite, Snow Watch! 😃 ❄️

Furries · 04/09/2022 22:52

Always appreciate your posts, thank you for taking the time to look into it.

We don’t get seaweed washing up on our beach, so you’re definitely further ahead of the curve than I’ll ever be!

Lets hope it’s a mild winter for as many as possible.

Weatherwife · 05/09/2022 00:46

My DH is a meteorologist and I asked him the other day what he thought the winter would be like and he said it was too early to tell. He specialises in the medium range, so I think seeing all the issues with that makes him even more sceptical of long range forecasts 🤣

Justmuddlingalong · 05/09/2022 08:57

A timely thread as last night I was having a nose online to see if there were any thoughts on what weather to expect. The general consensus was it's too early and nobody seems to agree yet.
My budget wants mild and dry, but the cold and snowy lover in me wants blizzards and snowdrifts. 🌨️

OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2022 09:18

It's a very conflicting feeling JustMuddling Grin

Maybe we should wish for: A crisp halloween and bonfire night and a festive Christmas. But other than that, 4 nights a week in the drought areas and mild and dry the rest of the time, with a bit of fog for fun. Grin

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CentrifugalBumblePuppy · 05/09/2022 09:27

Thanks! Lovely to see you ref the legend that is GWV! Anything over 120hrs forecast is just for fun of course, but I’m thinking above average CET for Autumn, with lots of wet & unsettled. The latter may be wishful thinking as we need the rainfall!

OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2022 10:02

It really is a guessing thread at the moment isn't it!

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2022 10:19

That seems to tally in quite well with the Met Office 3 month contingency planners outlook Gloria

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GloriaSmud · 05/09/2022 11:32

It does indeed, OYBBK

Ineverpromisedyouarosegarden · 05/09/2022 21:43

Irish weather forecast suggesting hurricane Danielle could be heading towards Ireland.

What do you think @OhYouBadBadKitten ?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 05/09/2022 22:46

It would be the remnants of the hurricane by the time it hits the UK, if it does, but it is within the modelling range that they do hit the Uk.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 26/09/2022 21:08

This reply has been withdrawn

Withdrawn at poster's request

leesmum · 27/09/2022 07:12

Yes 😃i wondered when my favourite thread of the year would be up and running thanks @OhYouBadBadKitten and @GloriaSmud your input is always appreciated

OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/09/2022 07:34
Grin www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ond-v1.pdf Met office have updated their 3 month outlook. To summarise it - it looks most likely to be an average sort of winter, with average temperatures and precipitation.
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gogohmm · 27/09/2022 07:48

@OhYouBadBadKitten

I could have predicted that!

GloriaSmud · 27/09/2022 08:03

Yes, 'tis one of my favourite threads of the year!
Netweather's forecast for October

nannybeach · 27/09/2022 08:19

Pop up news on the PC said farmers were predicting a cold hard winter. I have a weather app on my phone,exact location of where I live,it's usually incorrect,as is BBC weather,and accuview. We have a lot of tender and tropical plants,I need to know temperatures,I have a digital in/out thermometer. I know folk with mini weather stations.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 27/09/2022 08:28

I was a little surprised that the Met Office think that it is most likely that October will work out as averagely warm. There's a fair bit of warmth showing in the models for it as Netweather says. I wonder if it means that it is going to be a moth of temperature contrasts.

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