Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

Ah ok. Typically have two hospital appt and training to deliver this week. But hey if we end up with snow we’ll just reschedule.

I think it's going to be woolly hats and gloves next week 🥶🥶

Wales today are saying we will have lots of snow on Tuesday!

For us on the Welsh coast that usually means a smattering. Thursday looks more promising sledge wise. But it could all change again

For now I am planning on waiting to see what happens outside the window :)

Grandchildren desperate for snow and sledges

To be honest, I think that might be the best approach. Both GFS and ECM have pushed Wednesdays snow south of England.

I'm going to stick my fingers in my ear until Monday! (Although I've refreshed this thread umpteen times today!)

Ears not ear. Body might be falling apart a bit but I do have both ears 👂

Gosh yes, who knows for snow? And predicting where and when seems nigh on impossible.
Thanks though Kitten for your updates, we really appreciate it

Edinburgh appears to have the sunniest week forecast, for a long time 🤣
Quite cold though

No problem Hoochy. I'm desperate for some sunshine Peri. Or even just less grey.

GFS shows generally a complicated picture, with snow showers becoming more of a risk today into tomorrow through the NE, but perhaps a rogue snowshower popping up elsewhere. Then a risk of more organized snow Monday night into Tuesday. It keeps Wednesdays frontal snow over France, but reinitroduces a slider low through the channel on Thursday.

Will look at UKV next.

UKV looks like someone lightly sneezed snow showers over the eastern UK by tomorrow. Some frontal snow/sleet/rain Monday into Tuesday. It brings a wintry mix across the far south from Wednesdays front and introduces a wintry mix as a slider low on Thursday.

UKMO shows a lightly damp much of England and Wales on Tuesday, with a risk of hill snow. It keeps things pretty dry, but the possibility of the slider low on Thursday.

Thanks Kitten
forecasts for my area vary wildly. I have to go across outer London on Tuesday, is there a snow risk please? Thank you.

Keep an eye out Emma. There is a possibility of something overnight Mon/Tues but nothing wild. Then ECMWF goes a bit bananas on Wednesday morning. I expect the next run will show something different though.

We'll just have to wait and see. I wonder how Europe is faring. Friend in New York state has plenty of snow some very pretty pictures

Thanks Kitten
I'm then supposed to spend the night at mum's on Tuesday but then home Wednesday. It's hard to work at hers as really I need my proper PC.

if all of us wake up to snow on Tuesday, it'll be easier to cancel meetings but there's bound to be one person with nary a flake!

Looking at the different weather models, I'm not sure what we're getting this week now. Over the weekend, I thought I might be in for a couple of cms at some point during the week but now I'm thinking it'll just be cold/damp/rain. I might be lucky and see a few flakes but that'll be it.

In haste this morning as I'm running behind, just looking at UKV for the time being. Snow showers in Scotland primarily down eastern and central areas today. Rain showers elsewhere. This evening into Tuesday first thing, a weakening band of rain, sleet and snow sinking across the south. Tuesday night into Wednesday, an area of sleet and snow across the south. Then Thursday Friday, lots of snow showing for Scotland and northern England, some rain elsewhere.

Proper look late morning. Sorry.

oh yes, remember that's just one model, other models may vary.

I'm quite pleased that our current forecasts are broadly just cold, grey & lots of light rain/sleet. Much more manageable if a bit gloomy.

But I appreciate that that means there will be disappointment for anyone wanting a last hurrah in the snow (for this winter).

www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/?tab=coldWeatherAlert&season=normal

Cold weather alert has been upgraded to a 3 for all in England. (They only covers England)

Snow starved areas of southern England, your time may have come. Tomorrow, I think it will struggle to lie away from hilly areas, though later in the day it might start to settle. Wednesday remains tricky. Question marks remain as to how far north the snow will push and and how much is snow and how much is wet. For those in the north east, you are much more likely to be quite affected with some disruption possible. Then it's the turn of much of the rest of the north on Thursday, Friday.

Met Office warnings www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2023-03-06 are out.

This is for tonight into tomorrow. Low likelihood of disruption in the south due to above reasons. My top tip when viewing met office warnings is to always read 'further details' and look at the impact matrix.

Oh dear.
I should really just delete the BBC weather app!