Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

😩 @GloriaSmud i don’t want ‘interesting’, I’m driving from the Cotswolds to south Somerset for 4 days!
It’s bitterly cold here today, I was obviously over optimistic that Spring had sprung 🙄😄
I will keep a very close eye on here and my fingers crossed.

It does look interesting. Met Office have given it a 60% chance of disruptive snow in the south st the end of next week. Dont plant anything nice this weekend!

Mistymoonsinastarrysky - it's still a week away - it could all change in that time! <discreetly polishes sledge>

I suspect this will be welcomed with mixed reactions.

How close to the end of next week? It’s my sister’s memorial service next weekend and I need to get home.

I’d be quite happy getting stuck at home. So Sunday onwards would be fine.

I’ve been keeing an eye on the apps and it keeps changing. When do you reckon it will more concrete @OhYouBadBadKitten ? Need to make arrangments if it will be disruptive in the Yorkshire area.

I'm in the excited category, obvs @OhYouBadBadKitten !!

We've two aspects to look at really. Monday-Tuesday, which has a potential for some snow that shouldn't cause too many issues relatively speaking (though enough to cause met office warnings), followed by snow showers. This is a north east issue mostly. But small scale features could pop up at short notice bringing unexpected local impacts

Then Thursday, when the position of what looks like a channel low is utterly critical. I'm afraid that one won't be nailed down until early next week. Anywhere between nowhere, the south and the midlands or southern northern England could be hit by more prolonged snow.

Im sorry that I can't be more helpful.

Ooof, I have to go from Dublin to Brussels on Wednesday (assuming no drones stopping flights!), and then home to Dublin Thursday night....could get interesting.

(Keeping diary free or at least remote meetings on Friday, just in case travel home takes an interesting route...).

I’m in the “not excited” category!

I was down to last quarter tank of petrol, so have filled up today. Will be doing food shop for my mum tomorrow (and me).

Am still holding off re pruning roses. Am not too worried, had to cut them all right back a couple of years ago during the summer, so I know they’ll do ok with a late prune.

Hope those needing to plan journeys do ok if snow hits.

And, again, thanks for these threads.

Thank you @OhYouBadBadKitten 😊

After carefully outlining scenarios last night, UKV then shows this for Wednesday.

Looks like we need to scrap last nights scenarios and start again.

Furries - great reminder to stock up now.

That UKV forecast works ok for me but will make travelling north from south coast a lot harder for other members of my family. So I hope it's still too early!

What this demonstrates really clearly, is that the timing and extent of snow really is still not nailed down at all. We will have warm air to the south pushing up against the cold air and exactly when and where that boundary will be next week is still being modeled differently from model run to model run.

I know people find these situations really frustrating. On a global scale 25-50 miles is tiny, but for people on the ground it makes all the difference. Especially when it comes to something as disruptive as snow.

To contrast here are snapshots from the latest GFS at 6am Mon-Thurs (check time stamps) Remember that we can't forecast from single runs such as this, they just give one particular scenario.

I feel that the word scenario is doing a lot of work this morning!

I'll look at the ensembles next.

And here are the ensembles. Chose Oxfordshire as it's pretty central.

note how temps are quite widespread around the 8th. Normally that wouldn't make a huge difference, but with snow, a degree here or there can make all the difference. Also notice the variation in precipitation, with some big spikes showing or none at all.

Over on the Netweather messageboard, they're getting very excited with each model run!

I can imagine Gloria

Today's throughts from The Weather Outlook.

I think all the model runs have come out now so they've gone a bit quiet. Until the GFS starts updating and then they're off again!

Makes them sound like budgies in a cage. (that's not meant with any malign thoughts!)

Friday needs watching too. Current models suggest some significant snow somewhere around the middle of the UK.

😆 It does a bit.
I've been looking at that 'end of the week' chance of snow. My brother might have snow for his birthday next Saturday!

Hmm looking at the outline of Cornwall there and trying to work out where we are. I think we are just in the red zone.

Same for my brother's birthday Friday!

Please don't try and align your location with that map. I can guarantee that it will change with every single model run.

There is I think a decent chance of laying snow in parts of the south Tuesday going into Wednesday. But where that boundary will lie and to what elevation it will reach down to, it's simply impossible to know.