Winter Weather Outlook. Part 2: Into January '23

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Old thread : www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4626193-winter-weather-outlook

www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings#?date=2022-12-31

Not quite January yet, but the weather warnings continue. Generally a mild outlook to come, though of course parts of Scotland will see more wintry weather on and off.

I've been going on holiday to the Lakes at Easter almost every year of my life. The difference in weather we experience has markedly changed. As a child, teenager and young adult it was cool, blustery and often very wet. For about the last decade we've had temps of 18 degree several days of the week. Very little rain. I've only walked back from a walk in the rain once in recent years. 20, 30 years ago it was a couple of times a week. I've often had warmer, sunnier weather in Cumbria in April than Cornwall in August. Climate, weather is changing faster each decade imho

BBC reporting driest Feb in 30 yrs in England

That's very scary.

Another extreme.

Looking at next week, it does look interesting! Plenty of snow shower, or perhaps prolonged snow potential. starting with showers in the north and east from Sunday, but by Tuesday, a more prolonged period of snow is looking quite possible. Too early to forecast where. Keep your eyes on forecasts.

Small public health announcement if it’s going to be cold and dry in March. UV strength has nothing to do with temp so don’t forget the sun cream. Especially towards the end of the month and you are pale and burn easily.

Half term last week, 5 year old grandson came for the day the next morning looking out of the kitchen window there were two sleds lined up perfectly on the lawn. He'd dragged them out from the shed. We haven't used them since he was two. He really wants snow bless him.

He may get his wish next week Jutasking

Sunday and Monday see a risk of a mix of wintry showers, feeding down parts of 'the north' and eastern areas. These could be rain, sleet or snow. By Tuesday, more persistent snow may arrive, especially again in the north and east, but perhaps more widespread too. This risk persists into Wednesday.

Where snow falls and lies, temperatures are likely to drop below the headline figures. Remember in these conditions, if upper air temperatures are cold enough, then snow can fall when surface air temperatures are above 0C.

This evening we should have a better idea of what Tuesday might look like. UKV, which is the met office short term model shows a peppering of snow showers running down the east coast into East Anglia over Monday night. Before that it's a much more marginal mix and will depend on how fast precipitation falls, humidity and altitude.

Sorry to ask but how far in advance can snow be forecast? I'm looking at dates around 9th/10th11th for travel (from east anglian coast to cotswolds) and was thinking Sunday/Monday maybe? Would that be too early to forecast?

I'm afraid so Notonthestairs Snow is notoriously difficult at the best of times. Even early next week there's a lot of uncertainty. By the end of the week the picture looks very complicated.

Met Office and UKHSA have issued a Level 2 alert for cold weather, with a 60% probability.

sorry, I should correct that a little - it's at least 60%. They don't quantify more than that.

Ok - thanks for confirming that. Will have to keep my fingers crossed 🤞

Thanks for this. What is the criteria for Severe cold weather that the Met use?

It is all based on this Colouring www.gov.uk/government/publications/cold-weather-plan-cwp-for-england
The criteria are: Mean temperature falls below 2 degrees Celsius for 48 hours or longer and / or Heavy snow and / or widespread ice.

It is issued with regards to public health impacts and aimed at service users such as the NHS and local authorities.

Yes I've sun burnt gardening in February before!

Thanks for this @OhYouBadBadKitten
Hope the grandson gets the chance @justasking111 🛷🛷🛷

Thank you for the updates OYBBK.

Some thoughts from The Weather Outlook and Netweather on the coming cold weather.

Monday into Tuesday day time looks so tricky to forecast now. The boundary between too mild and cold enough to snow is ??? Some precipitation for most, but it looks like snow for northern areas, rain for southern areas with each area being unquantifiable, at least by me.

Snow and Ice warnings Monday and Tuesday.

Metoffice are giving us a 50% chance of snow here (Leicester) at 6am, Tuesday morning. I shall make sure I'm up for that!

Thank you for the updates. BBC have snow forecast for us for Wednesday. We’re coastal so it’s very rare here. Met office just have rain but sounds like I should be grateful for that.

thanks for the advance warning @OhYouBadBadKitten and @GloriaSmud
We're full of bugs/coughs/cold, so I'll mask up and do a supermarket run in the morning instead of waiting until Monday.

snow for northern areas, rain for southern areas

.... and hopefully sunny in the middle. Or is that wishful thinking? 😂

Crufts next week in Birmingham! People will be travelling from all over the country (and from abroad). Hope the roads are ok 🐶🤞🏆

Pixiedust1234 😆 Or maybe just a cold, grey, cloudy mush!

Netweather have another update here. Next Thursday looks 'interesting' for the south/central areas.