Potential very severe weather on Weds 17th/Thurs18th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It looks as though we could have some potentially extremely nasty weather Wednesday night into Thursday. Note the word 'potentially' - not guaranteed.

A low pressure looks to undergo rapid cyclogenesis (deepening) as it crosses the uk, potentially bringing 80+ mph winds across large areas.

As ever at this stage the models are varying quite wildly, both in terms of extent of deepening and where the low pressure crosses. Some are quite extreme, some are just very windy. Please keep an eye on the forecasts over the coming few days. I'll update when I can.

Thank you badkitten. Will keep an eye out for your updates.

no problem. I wasn't sure whether to put this out there yet, or to wait until we have more certainty, but given the potential impact, its seemed better to err on the side of caution.

Perhaps I should have named this thread as 'potential Storm Fionn?

Any ideas of areas yet? Are you suggesting snow?

I’m in the north east and the bbc weather site is predicting snow for us for Tuesday.

So remember I'm an amateur if you aren't used to the weather section, I tag team with Gloria who is also an amateur.

It's very difficult to say at the moment. There are a number of different weather models, some run by European agencies, some the Uk and some the US. When we look at this sort of thing, we look at the output from several models. Even within the individual models there are often many model runs, each with different starting points. So there can be a lot of different solutions!

The main models I tend to look at mid term - GFS and ECMWF have been modelling this low pressure with a variety of different scenarios showing. Last night, one showed all of southern england in a swathe of 80-90mph gusts. Others have the low deepening less, some have it deepening more but skirting the top of the UK. Most fall into the range of windy enough to bring down branches to severe enough to cause significant structural damage and disruption. At the moment it is impossible to call it.

Unfortunately, until we peg down the path and depth of the storm, we also don't know about the extent of potential snow risk. It varies from significant, to negligible.

There is a separate snow discussion for earlier in the week also in the weather section, I'll bring up the link :)

snow watch :)

Hopefully we'll have a roof by then!

Areas that might see high winds ~ netweather's wind gust chart for midnight Thursday.

Other charts have the worst of the winds across the south still.

Placemarking here as well !!! Waves to OYBBK! !!

marking my place

oh my gosh, there are people who don't know about oybbk and gloria?

reminds me of the time oybbk issues a tornado warning (torro, hook formation near south oxfordshire if I remember correctly) on the main boards and one person told her off for scaremongering... at which point fifty billion mners put her straight.

i prefer looking in here to the tv

its all so friendly and informative

thanks kitten and gloria

Thanks for starting this thread, you may be amateurs but you're often more accurate than the real thing and are much appreciated!

No pressure then Gloria

yikes. The latest GFS has the Midlands in the area for the strongest winds.

and northern England.

Thank you, watching with interest
Go go OYBBK and Gloria

Watching, this and the netweather thread where they all bicker

Some of the weather forums are hilarious, there are posters who are so obsessed with snow on them that they wouldn't notice a tornado barreling down their road

oh gosh and

One of the latest wind gust charts. I'm guessing some weather warnings will be a-coming for this, tomorrow or Tuesday.

good link to scroll through, looking around the 84 hour mark at present. vent is wind, rafales is gusts. You can see as it develops it models a large area of 140-150kph gusts (around 90mph) as it exits the uk. Unfortunately the time intervals are too coarse to see exactly where it models those speeds as it develops.

This is just one model, others are less alarming. But at least you all know to keep an eye on the forecast this week, which is the main thing.

I suspect the first warnings will come out from the met office tomorrow late morning. It will be very interesting to see their take on it.

x post

The picture gloria has popped on and my link are the same model, just different ways to look at the data.