Potential very severe weather on Weds 17th/Thurs18th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It looks as though we could have some potentially extremely nasty weather Wednesday night into Thursday. Note the word 'potentially' - not guaranteed.

A low pressure looks to undergo rapid cyclogenesis (deepening) as it crosses the uk, potentially bringing 80+ mph winds across large areas.

As ever at this stage the models are varying quite wildly, both in terms of extent of deepening and where the low pressure crosses. Some are quite extreme, some are just very windy. Please keep an eye on the forecasts over the coming few days. I'll update when I can.

OYBBK
I think some of the folk on the weather forums are all 'a bit cross' because yesterday/a few days ago, it was looking all 'winter wonderland-ish' and now it's gone 'a bit wrong.' It's like they think that because it's winter, only cold/snow is supposed to happen, other weather isn't allowed and they get all surprised/agitated when something different comes along!

I kind of get their point.It would be nice to have some proper snow. Out in the garden today it didn't really feel like January, dh and I were making all sorts of plans that really didn't feature winter weather.

OYBBK ~ I think it's the looking at what the GFS is saying for 7-10 days time, posting as if it's definitely going to happen and then being all irritated when it doesn't, while forgetting that it's still winter for a good few weeks yet (although I know the chances of a good snowfall declines as each week goes by!)

It's blowing in Edinburgh now, gusts of 50mph.....and it definitely felt like Winter today.
Got a snow warning for the next 3 days

Well would you look at that Perihelion ~ you get nothing for several years then three come along at once!

BBC currently showing 55mph for N Bucks at 0600h Thursday, but no official weather warning as yet....

Ugh, hate winds and we had some awful ones recently.

Gloria we did actually have a morning of snow on the Friday after Christmas ....still not used the sledge though. ( Took up ice skating last year as a way to get a regular fix of sliding around on frozen water in a dangerous manner )

Morning all.

Some model consistency between runs and different models beginning to emerge, with the centre of the low crossing roughly central Scotland and the worst of the winds to the south of that in northern England. A slight downgrade perhaps but potential gusts still 80mph over a pretty wide area and further south gusts 60-70mph perhaps with the usual squeeze through the channel.

Perihelion We have 'light snow showers' forecast for tomorrow evening and overnight
No wind warnings yet....

The 06Z has tweaked the storm further south, with the very strongest winds looking set to affect northern england and the north midlands, as well as along southern coastal areas. However, fortunately it is modelled as being a little less strong.

When I say a little less strong, it still looks to be potent, with widespread gusts to 70mph even away from the worst of the winds and around 80-85 in the worst. (currently around the liverpool area-lincolnshire)
But that is one model, I'm waiting for the met office warnings to come out.
Fortunately it is a very rapid storm with the worst lasting an hour or two.

I have had a Met office weather warning pop up just now. I am in London.

Yes, metoffice warnings are out. I did at the warning map for Wednesday/Thursday ~ covers just about everything there!

It really is a blanket warning!!

Seems to very much echo what I said in terms of wind, which is always a relief!

I'd expect the areas affected to be refined some perhaps tomorrow, but more likely Wednesday morning, with some amber warnings coming out when there is more certainty about where they should be.

Following for the excellent forecasting skills of Oybbk and Gloria.

We live near Barnsley. DP is working in Manchester and goes via Woodhead. Am hoping he can still get as Woodhead is notoriously difficult in bad weather and the M62 not much better when it snows.

He's only been back at work a week. Just getting my house back to normal after Christmas and can do without him being 'helpful' mid week again 😁😁

We've got a danger to life warning for Thurs and a spring tide early Thursday morn.
www.cornwalllive.com/news/cornwall-news/danger-life-warning-issued-storm-1066514

Thanks for posting that Portia. The met office have mentioned 'explosive cyclogenesis' in a press release.

It's worth noting that the models have diverged again, gfs has it moving through quickly and not as deep. There are other models showing a deeper system. It's not the monster that showed yesterday, nevertheless there is still potential for damage and disruption.

Dam it, I've not got round to ordering our Christmas present weather station yet.. Typical!!

Mace plarking!

Scroll down the page to the arpege and icon model outputs. Slightly worrying, I hope they are over egging it. theweatheroutlook

darn this weather. I'm in Central Scotland. DD flies to USA tomorrow morning and I have to drive to Aberdeen. Are either of us going to make it?

That last post about 'models being in agreement with Arpege and Icon'