Potential very severe weather on Weds 17th/Thurs18th

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

It looks as though we could have some potentially extremely nasty weather Wednesday night into Thursday. Note the word 'potentially' - not guaranteed.

A low pressure looks to undergo rapid cyclogenesis (deepening) as it crosses the uk, potentially bringing 80+ mph winds across large areas.

As ever at this stage the models are varying quite wildly, both in terms of extent of deepening and where the low pressure crosses. Some are quite extreme, some are just very windy. Please keep an eye on the forecasts over the coming few days. I'll update when I can.

And I like all your gin emojis though I get the feeling they are meant to be grins! [Grin]

oh!

well in a bizarre turn of events, we have less certainty than we did yesterday. The models are really not showing a severe storm at all this morning. . Instead they show a fairly normal winter low crossing the U.K., with gusts to around 65 mph.

It's clearly a system that really depends on knife edge conditions to form.

It's still worth keeping an eye on, but may be rather more benign than models were showing a couple of days ago.

the 06Z is a further downgrade. The low barely develops at all!!

snow here in Fife this morning but not too severe.

Ah, have my usual winter annoyance with the Met Office warning map....what a mess Wednesday is. Under 3 warnings for snow, ice and wind.

Have got snow though, which made driving to ice rink interesting

updated warnings including amber for snow in the NW.

The met office haven't downgraded the storm completely, they still warn of widespread gusts 60-70 with isolated gusts of 80mph. If you look at the warning matrix you can infer that there is a low-med risk of a med-high impact. If you see what I mean.

So perhaps the latest gfs is undercooking things.

Snow in Inverness/Moray. Couple of cm in worst places, heavy dusting in best

It's allegedly snowed in Doncaster earlier according to the DHL driver who delivered a parcel to me earlier but not sure how much, may have just been a few random flakes like we had here just outside Hull

It's getting very cold and windy though, feels like it wants to snow, just keeping fingers crossed now and hoping we get a good covering

Couple of inches aviemore ish area. Heavy showers. Roads are pretty bad.

BBC 24 dont seem to know whats going to happen,saying strong winds maybe severe but not where

It really feels like it’s going to snow here (outside Hull - wonders how close to mightybanhammer....) and the wind is starting to get up! Thanks to OYBBK and Gloria for your sterling work with these threads :)

Just between Brough and North Ferriby Islets0fLangerhans

Very, very close then! The eldest decided to walk home from school in the snow. Hot chocolates all round...

Oh God, we're flying Amsterdam to Edinburgh on 18th, and I'm a nervous flyer at the best of times. Is it going to be really windy?

n0ne ~ no, it shouldn't be windy at all for your flight. This is looking to be mostly an England/south coast thing now.

There would be little chance of my eldest walking home in the snow Islets, she may make it a couple of hundred yards up the road from school to Grandmas but that would be about all. She would then sit there drinking hot chocolate while waiting for me to pick her up after collecting her sister

Looks like we have had it for snow for now although we have got between 30 and 60 percent chance over the next few days of some more

Keeping my fingers crossed now, haven't had a decent amount of snow around here for years, still doubt we will get much but here's hoping

No snow in Aberdeen. Cold though

Have had a warning from the met office for snow tonight.

Fingers crossed, i love snow.

Lots of snow in South Lanarkshire. It's hardly stopped all day with thunder and lightning earlier too. The untouched snow in our garden is at least 15cm deep.
It took DH 2 hours to drive six miles home.

It sounds really bad up there.

As for tonight's wind. Well, ahem, it looks pretty windy across the south tonight, but nothing nasty at all. I'm feeling a mix of pleased and bemused. The low pressure does develop but just a little later that projected a couple of days ago, so that it only just begins to form a centre as it passes over us, rather than being in the middle of rapid deepening as was shown.

hey ho. I think I'm glad I still raised it as a possibility....

I am very pleased that you raised it as a possibility OYBBK - thank you!!

My children and I loved looking at the meteociel link over the weekend and they found it fascinating to watch how the model showed what might happen. You might even have sowed the seeds for future meteorologists in the 7 year old!

awww thank you.
Meteociel does have a great layout, especially for tablets.

latest warnings amber for snow and yellow for wind for tonight.

My poor dad was stuck on the m74 last night in his lorry. Miles of stranded vehicles. Is that likely to happen again tonight?

from what im watching NEWS 24 scotland amber warning for heavy snow later again

says drivers are warned to avoid m74