Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

Still windy in North Wales this morning

Tomorrow Heavy rain will be slow to move south from Scotland into northern England and Wales, reaching all parts by night time. Winds will die down in the north but the strong winds will move with the rain effectively.

Christmas Eve Colder everywhere, with snow over higher ground in Scotland but rain elsewhere there. The heavy rain in the south in the morning should clear away quickly.

Christmas day Looks like a lovely frosty start for many at the moment with temps in single figures everywhere. Temps struggling to get above freezing in many parts of Scotland. Rain in the south but clearing through the afternoon. Some decent cold sunshine about but some scattered shower may form which after dark may fall as snow.

Boxing day Fog to start with in parts of the south. As the day goes on temps will warm from the west as the low pressure begins to exert its influence. By the end of the day rain will have reached most parts, perhaps not quite reaching the eastern side. Over higher ground through the uk there may be some transient snow. The wind will start to become stronger towards the end of the day but it now looks as though overnight and into Saturday will see the worst of the wind.

Of grave concern (and you know I tend to be cautious in my outlook) is the fact that severe coastal flooding along the east coast could result from this storm. I really hope I am wrong and I really hope that the models change. If I lived along vulnerable coastal areas then I would at this point be ensuring that I know where my flood defences are because it will be difficult to sort out over Christmas itself.

7 degrees, dry. Aberdeenshire.

Image test...

weekend storm thread

great info as always

todays weather warnings

Christmas Eve In the south the rain will move away. For many in Scotland rain, sleet or snow showers. Feeling cold everywhere with strong winds, especially in the north.

Christmas day scattered showers, some perhaps falling as snow in Scotland, but for most turning out to be a fine dry cold day. Winds dying down in the evening.

Boxing day most (away from the far sw) will wake to a frost. Rain though spreading across the uk, over higher ground later in the day this may fall as snow, even into the chilterns. Winds picking up in the evening.

weekend covered in the storm thread :)

Starting to get a little colder in Aberdeenshire but no snowfall yet.

Very windy in North Wales still and spitty rain.

Thank you . Garage said not to put the winter tyres on, still too warm. probably they actually mean they're too busy! but that's not looking like a bad thing given your forecast. They're getting on a bit now, so better to save them for when they're really needed I foolishly left them on too long last summer, so they got very worn!

Merry Christmas everyone!

Will update this thread when I'm out of bed but we have an interesting little update in the storm thread

Oh you lazy muffin! Some of us are at work you know!

Enjoy not having to rush around
X

So tonight we generally have good flying weather for Santa. He may need an umbrella up in scotland, but he may also find a few festively white showers too. Bit of a head wind for him in England, but his reindeer will manage ok.

Christmas Day A pretty nice day really just the odd shower about, which may be white in Scotland. cold. Overnight there may be a bit of an issue with fog for some.

Boxing day A nice start to the morning but rain rapidly moving in from the west to affect all by night time. The rain may turn more wintry as we reach the evening and perhaps for some places, especially in central Scotland turn properly to snow, even to lower levels. (looking at the Glasgow-Inverness band here)

I'd like to wish everyone a happy, peaceful and restful Christmas and a snowy new year

Happy Christmas to you too, OYBBK.

Thank you for all your weather reports & info all year - I look here before anywhere else.

(But you can leave out the snow for me!)

You are very welcome :) just pm me any white stuff that you end up with!

Happy Christmas Eve Kitten!!! From a mild but blustery South Coast

Happy Christmas OYBBK!

Happy Christmas YBBK, from rainy Scotland.

Merry Christmas Kitten, thanks for all your hard work and here's hoping for some snow in Manchester in Jan 2015

Happy restful Christmas kitten and here's to some new year snow

Merry christmas oybbk

Happy Christmas OYBBK.

I'll let you know if we start to get any snow up here.
Hope you get some snow soon but perhaps not too much on Saturday as I've got another long drive then

Merry Christmas OYBBK!! And thank you!

Thank you for all of your lovely Christmas wishes I have a sleeping household.(got back from church stupidly late) so I've been able to update the storm thread here with a little tease for some.

Thanks for the update kitten.

Have a very merry christmas.

Central South a East.

No snow. Frost, but the sky is quite heavy and white...