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Weather

Concerned about the storm at the weekend (east coast please pay attention)

74 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/12/2014 13:05

It is early days yet but I am concerned that there is the potential for severe coastal flooding along the east coast from the storm that looks to move in boxing day evening and into Saturday. I really hope I am wrong and I really hope that the models change. There is some inconsistency between the models and so the track and depth of the storm is not pinned down at present. These will both have an impact on the final outcome.

If I lived along vulnerable coastal areas then I would at this point be ensuring that I know where my flood defences are because it will be difficult to sort out over Christmas itself. Those who know me from other threads know that I don't say these things lightly. I don't believe in scaremongering but I do believe in preparation. If Christmas weren't in between now and then I would hold off for another day or two until I was more certain.

Gales or severe gales look likely for some.

Remember that I am an amateur though. met office warnings environment agency flood warnings are the places to check closer to the time. I do apologise hugely if I am worrying anyone and it turns out not to be necessary but as I said I hope I'm wrong and look foolish for sounding the alarm over what is at present is a potential severe event.

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Report

iseenodust · 22/12/2014 13:13

Thanks. We're not right on the coast but lots of relatives planning to travel home boxing day night.

PestoStormissimos · 22/12/2014 13:16

Do you think flights will be affected?

magimedi · 22/12/2014 13:19

Kitten I know you well enough to know that you are in no way being a scaremonger & am sure anyone living in that area will be grateful for the heads up.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/12/2014 13:29

Pesto, I'm afraid at this point I don't know enough detail. It depends very much on wind direction compared to the alignment of the runway as well as strength.

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18yearstooold · 22/12/2014 13:56

I hope you are wrong but usually you are spot on (I know you have been before with snow when the TV weather missed it)

I've relatives on the east coast so I'll give them a heads up

Do you think it will come in land as far as York?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/12/2014 13:58

I think York's issue will be with the wind and potentially snow on the back edge of it but that is rather uncertain!

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WhatsForYeWontGoByYe · 22/12/2014 14:05

How far north, OYBBK? Appreciate it's hard to say, but are we talking Scotland too?

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/12/2014 14:21

At the moment I would put the main risk to be Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk Essex and the Netherlands.

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SpottyTeacakes · 22/12/2014 16:16

.

ouryve · 22/12/2014 16:22

Our forecast so far for boxing day (Durham coast) is brass monkeys weather, with wind picking up a little in the evening. Will keep an eye on this thread.

BiscuitsAreMyDownfall · 22/12/2014 16:23

Thanks for this thread Kitten. I will certainly be keeping an eye on it. Im not on the coast, but do plan to travel from York up the A1 on Boxing day night so will be looking to see the weather forecast for the Fri/Sat.

Hope no-one suffers too much. Better to be safe than sorry.

LumpySpacedPrincess · 22/12/2014 17:17

I'm in east Kent, could that be affected. We are by a river.

springlamb · 22/12/2014 17:21

Fellow East (ish) Kenter here.
What are the tides like over the period? Is the wind direction ripe for a North Sea bulge, seeing as you've mentioned the Netherlands.
I know, great idea, why don't I go and look this shit up for myself instead of bothering the small furry one! Whoosh I'm gone.

Cherrypippin · 22/12/2014 17:22

I'm driving from Kent to Gretna on Friday and then Gretna to Aviemore on Saturday so will be watching this very closely.

bettyboop1970 · 22/12/2014 17:25

I live in Norfolk near the coast, the wind is already raging. I hope we don't have a repeat of last years tidal surge. I'm going to keep checking local weather. Thanks for the post.

Awks · 22/12/2014 17:29

I'm right on the coast in N Yorks. Sandbags to the ready here. It was last week in 2013 when we had the awful, awful high tide where cars were washed into the sea so we are prepped. Though as always my worry is drunk people/tourists who don't realise the power of the sea and who actually wave dodge. I'm not brave enough to be on the lifeboats, though thankful some people are.

ShipwreckedAndMerrilyComatose · 22/12/2014 17:32

Useful to know OYBBK. Can I just add my thanks for your threads, you are so helpful and brilliant.

OhYouBadBadKitten · 22/12/2014 17:35

Well done Awks. As I said there is a lot of uncertainty over this, with different models showing different outcomes, but I do feel that given Christmas is in between here and then an early heads up is warranted.

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BlackeyedSantaStuckUpAChimney · 22/12/2014 21:12

thanks "oh small furry one" (nicked from up thread)

Newbiecrafter · 23/12/2014 08:37

The BBC are now talking about this storm

Kitten, thanks so much for the heads up and for all your time and hard work keeping us all informed.

Do you agree with the two scenarios mentioned? Do you have an instinct which one is more likely?

I hope everyone stays safe and well and warm but I'd also love some snow. I'm just outside the surrey London borde and would love to see my Dc's faces seeing snow properly for the first time. Last time it snowed here DS was only 1 and DD was 3, so they don't really remember. Also looking forward to a snowball fight and trying to build a snowman and snowdog. Dc's are 7 and 5.

Many thanks again. I love this time of year and watching the weather threads. This years been good for a while as we've also had Gloriasumd's volcano thread which I've also been following.

Xxx

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/12/2014 08:42

This is very tricky. The strong winds look to be a given and some model scenarios are suggesting some rather hefty gales. But the position of the centre of the low is up in the air as so to speak and this is critical in whether there will be a risk of coastal flooding and how severe this will be. ECMWF and UKMO have such completely different paths from GFS that we can't draw any meaningful conclusions. The Bracknell fax charts appear to support GFS.

The potential is still very much there but it is just plain impossible to know which scenario will play out. The models seem to be split between the low diving from NW scotland through SE England (an unusual path!) or travelling somewhere around northern Scotland heading NE. Its bizarre to see two entirely different paths like that!

sorry, that is a lot of waffling. To summarise, the models don't agree as to what will happen.

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OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/12/2014 08:46

lol Newbie - I hadnt seen that when I was typing. Good to see that the bbc agree with me

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MeanwhileHighAboveTheField · 23/12/2014 08:47

Cherypippin - snow is forecast for Aviemore on Saturday (am I right BadKitten?). Are you going skiing?

HoHonutty · 23/12/2014 09:09

You're amazing Kitten.

Cherrypippin · 23/12/2014 09:27

Meanwhile- no skiing unfortunately as have 5dc with us but hoping to have enough snow for the dc to do lots of sledging.

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