Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

I don't see any snow warnings on the met office page at present, just for snow and rain.

O gutted. Thought that it was true. Thanks Kitten.

Today Milder everywhere. Heavy prolonged rain in Scotland and parts of northern England. Scattered showers elsewhere though some central parts may stay dry. pretty windy with and wind warnings in the north Some mountainous areas may see snow.

Tomorrow Mild. Scattered showers, some heavier prolonged rain, in northern UK. Pretty windy.

Tuesday 23rd Cooler in Scotland, mild elsewhere with scattered showers or perhaps heavier rain (esp in northern England)

Christmas Eve Colder in Scotland, with perhaps some scattered snow showers in parts of Scotland, showers or rain elsewhere but clearing for many to leave plenty of sunshine. Wind again a feature.

Christmas day Looks like a lovely frosty start for many at the moment with temps in single figures everywhere. Rain in the south but clearing through the afternoon. Some decent cold sunshine about (hopefully!)

Boxing day A rather tight gradient low pressure has been shown for some time over this weekend but of course the devil is in the detail.At the moment it looks like over higher ground of northern UK there could be some heavy snow, with heavy, perhaps convective rain everywhere else. This could turn increasingly to snow on the back edge of the storm even to lower ground in the south - possibly. The wind looks to be a major feature I'm afraid and at the moment has some of the hallmarks of ending up being named 'the boxing day storm'.
We need to watch the models carefully for timing and position of this low pressure as it has the potential to be nasty.

You Kitten

thank

Very windy down here in Guernsey this morning.

Please, please tell me you are joking about the Boxing Day storm bit. Or make it go away I'm happy with a 27th of December storm.

Keeping a v close eye on your thread OYBBK as DH and DS are leaving me with the cat and chickens whilst they fly on 27th to Scotland for 4 nights with family.... Hope that journey will be ok and that they'll get back on NYE as planned! Eek...!

.

Ooh exciting. Anything forecast for after Boxing Day ?

I'll be somewhat AWOL from proper forecasting from now until tomorrow afternoon I'm afraid - sorry! I may be able to peep in from time to time but I seem to have reached a critical time crunch.

Have a good trip/time away OYBBK.

Until OYBBK returns perhaps we could post what we see.

Currently in Eastern Scotland it is mild with patchy drizzle.

Exciting predictions (even for the sw!) here in early January!

www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snow;sess=

Enlii As a bet with a friend I went back to 2011 and the chap from the express (it's always the same chap) has been saying the same thing since then. Couldn't be bothered to go further back.

Thunder in the SW now.

Why though ChristmasDawn, why does he do that. I don't read the paper just happened to put snow Christmas 2014 in a search and that came up and I got very excited haha.

North Wales today .......Very windy, no sleet today, no rain.

TheWeatherOutlook has some thoughts here on this weeks weather.
From having a (very amateur) look at the charts, I think at the moment where I am (Leicester), it's looking a bit boarderline as to whether we get snow or whether it'll be sleety stuff/rain. It'll be interesting how this one develops but get the feeling that if it does come off, there might be some Metoffice weather warnings coming along in the next few days.

I don't know OYBBK, I thought you were dedicated to the cause..... and on that point I am only joking that you are away from this thread because if your life is anything like us OYBBK followers' lives, you'll be up to your ears and eyes in planning and prepping and (partying) visiting folks. Much as we love you, we love you to have your life too

We shall see you when we see you!

In the meantime - blustery day here, getting milder and my little weather station says it's 10.4c in our "conservatory" shack and 18.9c in the kitchen (I was roasting a gammon for Christmas Eve, now have salmon on the go for tonight). It's not cold. Rain is forecast.

N Bucks. Have a good evening!

Very windy here in North Yorkshire. I'm a bit worried about the report I saw on a weather app I follow on Facebook about Gale force winds and possible blizzards for 26th and 27th. Might be avoiding metro centre on 27th then.

Just a quick peek in. The timing of the storm varies from model run to model run but it is very much there I'm afraid. Tomorrow afternoon or evening I'll try and do a proper analysis as it does look potentially nasty and badly timed.

Thanks, Kitten, but like Jill said, life is frantic for most of us around now, so don't get too frazzled on our behalf

Thanks kitten, but I agree with previous posters regarding not to worry yourself too much about weather reports when there are other things going on ATM.

Things should be less frantic after tomorrow :)

Very, very windy in N Wales right now

Well, my BBC 5 day forecast is aligned with OYBBK and the model runs - windy, then turning colder and more settled. Hoping for the ISS pass at ca 1720h on Christmas Eve so we can marvel at the folk circling Earth in space and wave them a merry Christmas.

Wind currently howling through some teensy gap in our bedroom window. At least it's dry! Time for some shut eye.