Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

Yesss go Mitten

I was popping in to post this, but see it's been mentioned already on here...still, can't hurt to say it again!!

Just popping in to see if you have all voted on the Christmas names thread!? No hints or anything, but our resident Weather Guru is up for nomination!!

Vote HERE. Or the Weather Gods will be out to get you

Lol!!!

Have voted ~ didn't want the Weather Gods after me.

Hmm. Reastie the Beastie seems to have a more effective campaign manager. Sorry kitten :(

Awwww that's ok. It was nice to make it to the short list.

I voted!!

I voted too.

On the snow front, I have found the sledge in the garage and bought DD some snow boots which she lures with a passion...so it is blatantly not going to snow this winter.

Sorry.

lures???

luurves.

Have family over from NZ. I've told them not to expect a White Christmas, but maybe they'll get some while they're here?

I feel that "snow" was a bad word to miss from that last clause.

I've had a sneaky peek tonight. There are increasing trends towards a cold blast perhaps as early as Boxing Day! It's beginning to look quite interesting.

Oooh - how interesting ? And how long for ?

Interesting is good, right?

I voted for ya Kitten.

Thanks Lumpy!

Until the model period runs out on 1 jan. We mustn't get too excited. It may all be different in the am, but the signals are getting stronger for an overall pattern change. :)

I'm hoping for snow. Feet of it if possible.

vertically or horizontally?

morning!

Friday 19th Rather windy from North Wales upwards (poor you haggis!) with gusts to around 50 perhaps 60mph. Some rough seas for the Western Isles. Rain clearing south through the day but a few showers will follow in places, perhaps wintry in places in Scotland. Plenty of sunshine for some in central areas

Saturday 20th Winds very slow to die down.Mostly dry in the south. some convective showers in northern England and Scotland (perhaps even some hail). some will see plenty of sunshine.Pretty mild.

Sunday 21st Mild everywhere. Rain moving in from the west, but perhaps not reaching parts of the east, still pretty windy.

Monday 22nd (GFS) Cold in northern Scotland. Scattered showers, particularly in the west. Mild elsewhere. Still quite windy.

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Cold in northern Scotland, mild elsewhere with scattered showers or perhaps more prolonged rain (esp in northern England)

Christmas Eve (GFS) Cooler, with perhaps some scattered snow showers in parts of Scotland, drier elsewhere.

Christmas day (GFS) Away from the SW the cooling trend continues and (whispers) parts of Scotland could see some light snow.

Boxing day (GFS) Away from the SW cold Western parts away from the SW and coast could perhaps see some snow showers as could much of Scotland.(ECMWF) Is less keen on this and instead has a cheeky little low pressure which could be quite stormy.

After that well, it is still exciting. The battle ground seems to take place over the SW and away from there it certainly looks cold enough to snow on and off through into the New year. New Years eve night looks especially exciting at present, but there is plenty of potential before then. Of course things may change so its not quite time to start laying out the plans for igloos.

Thanks Kitten I look forward to seeing your updates in the morning

You're really welcome :) I can't promise they will be so early when the holidays start

Thanks Kitten! My family might get snow after all!

Aaargh. What can I bribe you with to remove all the "away from the SW", "except for the SW" bits?!!

(gazes miserably out of the window at traditional Cornish yuletide weather of horizontal rain, blown-over outdoor Christmas trees, etc).

Ooh come on explain especially interesting !!!

Ha Ha! Just wait until Saturday when we do the Snow Dance. Expect strange weather behaviour, rapid changes and 6 foot of snow over the whole country on 25 December

Just seen on Netweather thats there is a 29% snow risk on Christmas and Boxing Day in the south. Woo Hoo