Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

hahaha!

At least the sky is blue and it looks a lovely day down here. Time to head out. Again.

So is the chance of snow between Christmas and new year declining then? I hope not. Its the best time for it to snow if it does. School holidays coupled with not having to go anywhere would make it ideal.

repeatedly

Spotted some snow at 06:00 this morning in Braemar. Pity it will probably melt by the time I get to that area.

Any news on coldness for the new year ?

The cold is back on in GFS in a big way! Stunning run!

Apologies for not being here as much as I feel I ought. My real life has gone unexpectedly very very bonkers and is consuming a huge amount of time and effort. Very irritating when I want to sink into weather world.

Oooh how cold ? How long ? Snow ?

Hope you're ok BK: I rarely post on these threads but always read in awe!

Sleet on and off here in the mountains in North Wales.

I'm ok, just extraordinarily busy with unexpected stuff. Christmas has had to take a back seat. :)

I wouldn't like to put any parameters on it at present, although the models have been hinting at it for a few days, this run is quite a spectacular improvement but it could be a one off.

Dying to hear more, is there ANY hope of snow in London?

Yes Swede, if tonight's GFS verifies.

Ooh, snow

Excited!!!

morning all!

today Winds very slow to die down. Mostly dry in the south. Some scattered showers in northern England and Scotland Snow showers in Scotland should peter out. Temps back down in single figures. Heavy Rain (snow over mountainous areas) will move into Scotland this evening.

tomorrow Milder everywhere. Scattered showers, perhaps more prolonged rain in northern UK. still pretty windy.

Monday 22nd Mild Scattered showers, some heavier prolonged rain, in northern UK. rain warnings Pretty windy.
Please can you think go away rain and wind in the south thoughts for monday please. I have something very important going on.

Tuesday 23rd Cooler in Scotland, mild elsewhere with scattered showers (esp in northern England)

Christmas Eve Colder in northern Scotland, with perhaps some scattered snow showers in parts of Scotland, showers or rain elsewhere. Wind again a feature.

Christmas day Cooling down, cold in parts of Scotland where you could see some light snow. Temps in single figures everywhere. Rain in the south but clearing through the afternoon..

Boxing day Away from the south SW a cold day with a lovely frosty start. Looks very wet and this could fall as snow over higher ground over northern uk.

Frustratingly, after that only a couple of cold days before milder air wins back according to this model run. I think we can safely say we just dont know what will happen after Christmas. I think at present looking at the ensembles it is most likely it will be cold between 27th and 29th with potential snow on the 27th. It is getting a bit waving hands in the air by that point though.

Xx dry, still weather in the SE for Monday xX

I've always lurked on these threads but just wanted to say thank you for taking the time to keep us updated :)

Thanks Chipping!

You are really welcome Huevos!

I'm a grateful lurker too! Thanks for doing this - I am following this daily and crossing fingers for at least a bit of snow.....

Oooooo The Met Office has issued its first severe snow warning for England and has warned people to check car batteries etc so not to be caught out. Exciting. Here in North Wales we have had snow on the mountains already but it looks like we might be in for some snow at Christmas too. Yay!

www.express.co.uk/news/nature/543654/Polar-Blast-Snow-Britain-Moscow-Cold-Met-Office-Warning-Winter-Freeze

What do you think OhYouBadKitten........what do you make of this?
Thanks for your thread by the way.

The express says that every year

... on at least 3 different occasions!

One day the express will accidentally be right
Will update tomorrow.