Badkitten's 'Will it snow at Christmas?' thread.

[OhYouBadBadKitten]

Well, the moment has come

The 19th December - when many kids break from school has appeared in the GFS charts.....

I'm going to do my best to update this at least once each day, but bear with me if life interferes a bit. My usual disclaimer: I'm only an amateur and I get things wrong. I dont say this out of false modesty but because its true and for important forecasts and for making decisions please refer to the met office.

Also at this range the forecast will be complete crap anyway and will change daily. As we get closer to the Christmas holidays other models will come into range and things will start to become more accurate - hopefully!

So:

Friday 19th (GFS) - The day starts off cold with temps around freezing. Some precipitation but it looks to err on the wrong side of frozen (ie not). Europe isnt looking cold for this time of year and so we are looking to our north and north west for the cold at this point.
That's as far as the model goes but later in the day I would expect it to end up in single fig temps. Might update this on the next model run.

stupid gfs is all I'm saying, remove the New Years snowfest 'especially interesting' part for the moment. However insert new 'interest' into the 27th!

To summarise my strange mutterings. GFS is bringing in the potential for snow between Christmas and New Years but at the moment its not making up its mind exactly when or where or how much. It is quite promising though.

It can snow as much as likes between 28th December and 5th January as it will not disrupt me, but Id really like it holding off till then.

Snow on the 27th??
What are my chances of driving the length of the country (N to S) on the 27th?
Lots of snow for New Year would be lovely so long as you can arrange for my PIL not to get snowed in with us

stubbornstains weather in the SW is currently totally poo, isn't it - warm drizzle and high winds slapping lukewarm leaves in your face. So, another winter without snow, then...

If its going to snow then it has to be Christmas Day please. haha.

catslave the only time it's snowed down here in the last 3 years was when the LL decided to re roof the house. In January .

No way would I give chances for any particular day this far in advance

No snow in the SW Another year. Was lovely and cold for a bit, don't like mild and drizzly.

There is plenty of winter left yet

It does seem with the latest model run that sometime around next weekend the first significant lowland snow of the season may occur. It doesnt look prolonged at the moment and it looks quite precarious in terms of model consistency but its something to watch.

That would be lowlands everywhere except the SW I assume.

Sorry Rafa, if it's any consolation it may mean much of the south.

I don't expect much snow here anyway.

Anything less wet and windy than last year is an improvement tbh.

Morning all, sorry I'm late. Life is bonkers atm!!

Tomorrow (aargh how can it be tomorrow already?) Rather windy from North Wales upwards (poor you haggis!) with gusts to around 50 perhaps 60mph. Some rough seas for the Western Isles. Wintry showers or rain for parts of Scotland. Plenty of sunshine further south and looks like a rather nice day albeit windy once the early morning rain has cleared through

Saturday 20th Winds very slow to die down.Mostly dry in the south. some convective showers in northern England and Scotland (perhaps even some hail). some will see plenty of sunshine. Cool.

Sunday 21st Mild everywhere.damp and dreary. still pretty windy.

Monday 22nd Mild Scattered showers or at times more prolonged rain, Still windy.

Tuesday 23rd (GFS) Cool in northern Scotland, mild elsewhere with scattered showers or perhaps more prolonged rain (esp in northern England)

Christmas Eve (GFS) Colder in northen Scotland, with perhaps some scattered snow showers in parts of Scotland, showers or rain elsewhere.

Christmas day (GFS) Cooling down, cold in parts of Scotland where you could see some light snow.

Boxing day (GFS) Away from the south SW a cold day. Perhaps some snow showers further north and perhaps just about into East Anglia (touch and go this one!)

I still think that many parts of lowland England, as well as other parts of the UK could see some snow showers between Christmas and New Year. whether they will settle is another matter. GFS then shows a brief warm up around New Years Eve and after that takes the mainland temps down in Europe rather nicely - at last. This is encouraging if it remains in the models.

Apologies for less detail than usual. Trying to cram too much into my day today.

Thank you. Kitten

You are welcome :)

I'm at how much Europe is forecast to cool down by. Knowing how mild it's been that way recently ~ think they might find it a bit chilly!

Just looked at the BBC forecast and it is cooling down nicely in Cornwall on and after Christmas Day. Anything less than double figures will make it seem quite seasonal. The winds are calming down on Boxing Day, also - just in time for a walk on the beach without inducing chronic earache!

If you could arrange a huge dump of snow between East Anglia and north west on the Monday night/ Tuesday morning after Christmas, I'd be quite grateful.

(5 days with the in-laws looming. So much for a break. Grrr)

Thank you, OYBK, I have this on watch, fascinating and as I'm in East Anglia, exciting!

morning all. Please forgive any unintentional errors today you have a badkitten who is burning the candle at both ends at a ridiculous rate. I feel the quality of forecasting has rather slumped!

TodayRather windy from North Wales upwards (poor you haggis!) with gusts to around 50 perhaps 60mph. Some rough seas for the Western Isles. Wintry showers or rain for parts of Scotland. [[http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1418947200 Snow warnings for Scotland today)) Rain moving south into northern England as we go through the day. Plenty of sunshine further south and looks like a rather nice day albeit windy once the early morning rain has cleared through

Tomorrow Winds very slow to die down.Mostly dry in the south. Aome scattered showers in northern England and Scotland. Temps back down in single figures.

Sunday Milder everywhere. Scattered showers, perhaps more prolonged rain in northern UK. still pretty windy.

Monday 22nd Mild Scattered showers or at times more prolonged rain, especially in northern UK. Still windy.

Tuesday 23rd Cooler in Scotland, mild elsewhere with scattered showers (esp in northern England)

Christmas Eve Colder in northern Scotland, with perhaps some scattered snow showers in parts of Scotland, showers or rain elsewhere.

Christmas day Cooling down, cold in parts of Scotland where you could see some light snow. Temps in single figures everywhere. Rain in the south.

Boxing day Away from the south SW a cold day. Looks pretty dry now.

Then on the 27th stupid mild weather moves in according to gfs with a mix of mild and cold after. ECMWF disagrees and brings in more in the way of cold. The battle of the models commences.

Well, if you'd stop going out clubbing then you wouldn't be so tired young lady!