Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Woot! Marking place first :)

Thanks for the new thread.

Just read Lloyds Bank are issuing all their staff with hand sanitizer for use when they need it. Short term I know it costs money, but it would be great if many other employers followed. Long term it might avoid premises being closed and save lots of money.

Thank you for the new thread!

Prepping Scenarios

Most of us are prepping for the following situations:

• Wanting to stay indoors for 2-4 weeks + in case of a local outbreak

• Potentially being ill with a flu type illness lasting 2-3 weeks with one or more of the household having the illness

• Having to take a family member to hospital for the CV or any other reason during an outbreak

Prepping Items

Threads 1&2 have lists of things to think about to prep for the first scenario. As do the Brexit prepping threads.

Main differences/additions to something like the Brexit list are:

• Face masks if you can get them for any trips you have to make in public during an outbreak. These don't offer full protection and cannot be 100% relied upon but are probably better than nothing if you make sure you wear them correctly and dispose of them correctly. N95 masks are best but expensive and harder to wear, surgical face masks are second best. Dust masks are not going to help.

• Dettol / bleach / Miltons to disinfect. Not all disinfectants work but these three do

• Plenty of at home/over counter treatments for flu type symptoms should you need to treat at home

• Tissues (lots of) should you catch the virus

• Think about meals that are easy to cook and eat should you be ill or both parents be ill at the same time (soup for example)

• For a potential hospital trip you may want to prep a 'go bag' should you need to take someone to hospital with the virus (or anything else) during an outbreak. See Thread 1&2 for examples of what people are packing

Welcome all...settling in for Thread 3.

Could be 'interesting' depending on how the Brighton cluster shapes up.

Thanks for the new thread.

Should also have mentioned hand sanitiser will work but only if it is over 60% alcohol!

Washing your hands well and frequently is the best defence (and better than hand sanitiser if you have the option).

Just saw ofwarren's note on the last thread about unconfirmed rumours that a health worker with CV may have gone into a care home.

That could be bad

Fingers crossed it turns out not to be the case!

Main links

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Howdy

Thanks for the new thread

What do you think of this....
The figures for the rest of the world represent about 1% of total cases, but 5% of recoveries.
Do we think this is because many milder cases have been tested and detected elsewhere?

Pmking

Thanks for the new thread, and the sensible round up of info (though at the speed things are moving it’ll probably be out of date by tomorrow! )

I think the next couple of days watching Brighton will be very illuminating - it seems to have spread very quickly over the last couple of days compared to the York case for example. I think it really shows the difference between non-residents staying at a hotel and isolating themselves (pretty effectively, from the looks of it!) and the Brighton lot going about their daily lives without realising they’re a carrier.

Marking place. I'm a bit shocked at the sudden spread in the UK today.I'm also following HK spread and the hotpot story.

From the Guardian on today's WHO meeting:

"The director general of the World Health Organization (WHO) has said recent cases of coronavirus reported in France and the UK could “be the spark that becomes a bigger fire”.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus’ comments came after a British man, who caught the virus at a conference in Singapore, was linked with other cases in the European countries.
Eight people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, while five British nationals tested positive in France following the Sussex businessman’s trip to a French ski resort.

Ghebreyesus told a press conference: “In recent days we have seen some concerning instances of onward transmission from people with no travel history to China, like the cases reported in France yesterday and the UK today.
“The detection of this small number of cases could be the spark that becomes a bigger fire. But for now, it’s only a spark. Our objective remains containment.
“We call on all countries to use the window of opportunity we have to prevent a bigger fire.”

Place marking with thanks

All aboard!

Thanks for all the updated information op

What would you be doing if you were in Brighton?

From the imperial college paper

*We present case fatality ratio (CFR) estimates for three strata of 2019-nCoV infections. For cases
detected in Hubei, we estimate the CFR to be 18% (95% credible interval: 11%-81%). For cases
detected in travellers outside mainland China, we obtain central estimates of the CFR in the range 1.2-
5.6% depending on the statistical methods, with substantial uncertainty around these central values."

Somerset live website reporting someone at Bath university being tested and in isolation

Thanks for all the helpful information and the new thread!

Erm I was going to read and gradually summarise the imperial college paper but Im lost already. Its full of formulae and needs a science/maths person.

Case fatality ratio 18% in Hubei?!