Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Oh...I haven't watched his latest video.

I'd be very perturbed if he is/could be censored since he's a British doctor living in the UK and only shares factual evidence based information.

Hopefully we will find out tomorrow that it was just a tech or editing glitch!

Nice - I'd be tempted to add tins of veggies and tomatoes, long life or powdered milk, I'm going get some part baked crusty breads and wraps from Lidl as they tend to have long shelf dates. Think about stocking toiletries, hand gel, toilet rolls. Tha

cleaning items like bleach, disinfectant or antibac, toilet rolls. Aim for 2-3 weeks of isolation, avoiding shops of panic buyers. Don't buy anything you really wouldn't use though.

@Notstrongandstable Admittedly I had not thought of fines, (though I have never ever heard of anyone getting a fine for non attendance at school round here, some areas must be more lax than others) and yes, I have to go to work too but as I have a history of pneumonia and pleurisy, permanently scarred lungs and two auto immune conditions I would be worried enough to rearrange my annual leave for this. I was very ill and off work for 7 months last time I had pneumonia so I'm pretty scared now, tbh. Being prepared and thinking through potential scenarios is helping me to feel less anxious.

I bet dettol are making a fucking fortune

And Milton. It's sold out everywhere

I think a lot of people’s reactions are very much dependent on their own experiences. For example some people may think pulling children out of school is an overreaction however if you have vulnerable family members or a history of respiratory damage your threshold will be a lot lower than this sort of thing.

I am so fortunate that for me and my family I am more or less prepping for “if we get it, we’ll have a week or two self isolating at home feeling like shit”. I have begun making vague plans for if I need to drive down and kidnap my 90 year old Granny if it starts to appear in her area, but to be honest she may be better off staying where she is - she still lives independently; doesn’t have daily contact with carers etc and she’s an ex Army wife so is always prepared to feed the 5,000 at a moments notice so should last a long time without needing to pop to the shops etc. She’s a trooper - in actual fact I might be better off bugging out and staying the duration with her, she’s probably more prepped than me!

Room for a little one? Not sure how I've missed these threads!

Re rushing a vaccine out, I think I heard a few weeks ago that they was trying new drugs out where the outcomes was looking unfavourable.

There is so much work to do before they can even get close to proper clinical trails. I would worry about a rushed out version. I had no idea about the links of previous flu vaccines and narcolepsy 😮

Regarding vaccines, the doctor in this video talks about concerns about having a vaccine and it causing you to become more ill or react worse the next time you get the virus again. I've probably not worded that well because I haven't had a child free moment to myself in what feels like 3 months and I need a wine but hope it makes sense.

Forgot to link 🤦‍♀️

m.youtube.com/watch?v=UeR9i4BNTTY#menu

I managed to get a massive 5l bottle of milton disinfecting fluid (effective against some viruses) on amazon for the normal price today. Also some more masks on screwfix even though my local branch had none a few days ago. My local B&Q also had some.

Wills are a good shout, crossed my mind too today. Also thought of light bulbs. It would be annoying if you had to self-quarantine is near-darkness!

The Telegraph article mentioned closing schools, nothing about universities. My DS is in halls multi storey block what are the chances of it spreading rapidly there. It does worry me. He travelled by train today.

We key in our pin numbers when purchasing goods. So many things we touch when out and about. I think the government may have to get a lot tougher.

Also thought of light bulbs. It would be annoying if you had to self-quarantine is near-darkness!

If people are generally new to MN prepping then it might be worth looking at some of the older threads on the board. We've been going a while! Lots of tips there about generally being prepared for various situations (including being restricted to home for a few weeks). Really all you need though is food, water and medicines. In times gone by we would have faced potential boredom but now the world has netflix!

Thanks @ifonly4 I'll add some tins. I have lots of toiletries, I just never buy much food. I've got 2 bottles of hand gel. I didn't get more because I thought I read it doesn't work for viruses?

Sorry, I seem to have made some kind of prepper faux-pas there.

What are the thoughts on having shopping delivered? Will the drivers have been exposed to too many people and have touched the shopping? Thought it might be a good idea in order to avoid going to the shops?

I've just had this text through

Pls do not book an appointment or attend surgery if you have recently visited China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, Malaysia, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan or Thailand and experiencing symptoms of cough, fever or shortness of breath within 2 weeks. Contact 111 for further advice. North XXX medical

I don't think you have, don't worry! It's a good point about older threads though, there is good stuff there.

Do we need to stock up on water? Is it likely that water will be shut off?
Luckily in my post-baby forgetfulness I end up buying a couple of packs of paracetamol and ibuprofen every time I pop to boots/Aldi etc so well stocked with those.

I am wondering about the wisdom of shopping more. The more one shops. The more one is exposed. I have most things needed.

I have swapped to Asda as it is less busy if more expensive than Lidl or Aldi, and has a greater range of stuff. Can get everything in one shop.

Milk I am getting from the cornershop. The fewer places I go the fewer chances of meeting people. Not that that helps when the children see 1000 plus kids per day.

If I were in Brighton, I would ring children in sick with any genuine minor illness they have, or perhaps one that is easily fudged... A temperature? Maybe diarrhoea? Tummy ache? That way you are not just keeping them off.

We are not quite there yet with that plan here.

Ds seems to have picked up a rugby injury.

When it's rampant in the community, that would be something to think about (virus on shopping) but you'd hope drivers and pickers and food workers will be able to keep healthy and working so perhaps they'll have some screening. If it comes to it you could stop buying fridge stuff, so you could leave newly arrived non-fridge food untouched for a bit before handling it.

Or just bloody wash it with a soapy sponge before you put it away.

Couple interesting articles I came across:

Apparently, masks can be reused - carefully.
www.cdc.gov/niosh/topics/hcwcontrols/recommendedguidanceextuse.html

Interesting study on effectiveness of different masks filtering particles. Apparently even surgical masks manage to filter 63%. I've read elsewhere that the severity of the disease is linked to the amount of the viral load you are exposed to, so anything that reduces this is helpful!
smartairfilters.com/en/blog/coronavirus-pollution-masks-n95-surgical-mask/