Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Yes that does actually tie in with the 18-20% shown on the worldometers website. In all likelihood though its much lower because there are hundreds of thousands of cases that are not in the official numbers (either because of manipulation of the figures or because they are not known about or a combination of the two)

I'd also be very rigorous about hand washing and disinfecting the house, car, avoiding busy confined spaces. Sounds bat shit to the people still maintaining "it's no worse than the flu" but they can all swivel - lets see what they're saying in two weeks time.

I think the "its no worse than the flu" types are actually really irresponsible. Of course panicking doesn't do anyone any good but neither does not acknowledging the risks and taking sensible precautions.

I'm working on the basis that we take whatever the confirmed number of cases is, and multiply it by 8 to account for the 2 week incubation and the circa 5 day doubling.

Given the news today I am adjusting my Tesco order for the weekend in case we end up having to self quarantine at some point. We have enough food but need more gin and chocolate!

Is there a link for the Imperial College paper?

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf

Good luck!

That story about a care home closing sounds at best partially accurate. How would a care home close? You’d just be distributing potentially infected residents elsewhere. Possibly closed to visitors. And remember if the health care professional was there they will certainly have been washing hands and using hand gel.

Many thanks, will dive in

If I was in Brighton I would be pulling my kids out of school and staying at home.

My DS is at Sussex Uni and a student there has been admitted to hospital with suspected coronavirus. I've been a bit blasé about it all until I read that.

Thanks for the new thread.

There has been an acceleration in the number of cases in HK over the last couple of days (from 26 cases two days ago to 42 today).

There was a press conference held after midnight following the discovery of a cluster of cases in the same building, of people who don’t know each other and live 20 floors apart. This is reminiscent of the Amoy Gardens cluster during SARS, in which 300 people from the same building got infected (and over 40 died) as the virus lived in drain pipes and spread whenever people flushed their toilets.

As a result of pressure on hospital services, the HK Hospital authority is cancelling all non urgent specialist appointments and surgeries (except cancer treatment).

I also saw that while BA still flies to HK, their website suggests you can change your travel dates if due to fly before 1 April.

There are still no face masks in HK, the government admitted yesterday they are down to a few weeks’ supply. Dettol wipes, hand sanitiser can’t be fond anywhere. There are lots of shortages of food as well.

I can’t see how classes will be able to resume by early March as planned, as children typically need at least 2-3 masks a day.

Who knows when/if we will ever go home. 😟

Meanwhile, I read (unverified) that effective yesterday, China is changing their definition of “confirmed case” to exclude asymptomatic patients - even if they have tested positive for the virus. This should result in fewer cases being reported in China.

@ofwarren exactly. The schools in Brighton emailing parents that their children are "still expected at school" 😂

Nope.

Thanks for the third thread!

When we've had a community hospital ward close here, it means closed to visitors. Would that be what they mean?

*found not fond

Place marking.

I can't prep too much for financial reasons, I have a week's worth of food in, never have more, but I will add more bleach and tissues next time I shop.

I'm a bit of a germophobe at the best of times. I'm not going out much and trying to shop in the evening when it's quieter. I've reminded my elderly mum to be careful too. I'm hoping it won't be too bad, but I think it's early days and it'll take time to understand it. I'm also worried China aren't disclosing all the information.

😷

floatygoat we are fortunate that my son's school is really undersubscribed. If the virus came here, I would withdraw him officially with the council and then reapply for his place when things are better. Nobody from the education authority on your back then. Would be a home schooling family.

oh! I remembered something! When swine flu was emerging they advised people to have their nhs number to hand. Might be worth preempting that and hunting it down.

DivisionBelles - I know it must be hard, but try and remember so many have been tested and come back negative. Rumour will get around very quickly and students will soon have a reasonable idea if they might have had contact, use same rooms etc.

My dd is at york uni, one of the first cases was a student there. The uni have advised they did enter their accommodation but had no contact with other students or staff. The accommodation they were in is nowhere near dds accommodation. We're hoping for the best. No other cases reported so far.

Thanks for the tip about nhs number OYBBK, I've taken a photo of mine on my phone.

Thanks for the new thread!

If the govt want to enforce compulsory quarantine for certain areas do people think they have the resources to do so? I don't.
Things like China have done like barricading roads, taking people's temp at checkpoints , checking people's names off lists as only 1 person out of household allowed out every 3 days.
can you imagine this over here?
I'm dubious they won't be able to handle this as they haven't the manpower after cutting jobs and no money