Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Well I went to buy a couple of packs of paracetamol in Tesco after work and they were almost out of the cheap ones. I actually need to buy some more as dh let the supply run out without telling me or buying more

Thinking about limiting infection risk I want to get my prep shopping done this week, then avoid shops as much as possible over the coming weeks. Looking at how it's spreading in Brighton I feel I have a window of opportunity now to get prepared. I don't want to be shopping once it's active in my area.
It's probably all pointless for me though because at work I come into contact with so many people.

Checking in

Thinking of tins, humans stack those shelves. Does the virus live on tins for how long??

I definitely think there is less exposure from a shopping delivery than actually visiting the shop. If you are concerned about viruses on tins and packets, Dettol do a spray that can be used on everything. Not on your fresh produce obviously, but you can wash that.

I have responsibility for business continuity for a
global FTSE company and have drafted the following advice from an employee perspective (I've had to amend it for publishing purposes):

If the Coronavirus situation were to escalate into a full blown pandemic, we can protect ourselves by ensuring the following:

1. Ensure the leadership team are agreed upon priority business activities and minimum staffing arrangements

1. Prepare for colleague absences e.g. are there any single points of failure across the business? Who can provide back-up for others who become ill (especially those in critical functions)

1. Consider increasing those colleagues who can work from home

1. Greater use of telephone / webex rather than face-to-face meetings and reduction / cease travel

1. Reduce the number of people in the workplace at any one time through flexible working hours / rotas

1. Provision for colleagues with children or unwell adults at home, or for employees who are reluctant to use public transport to get to work

1. Reduce activities involving large groups of people e.g. all-staff meetings, or other social events

1. Establish colleague welfare policies for those who display relevant symptoms, have been caring for someone with the virus, or who have returned from travel in or through a known infection zone. Such policies might include:

· protocols for those whose health is ‘in-question’ who want to come to work

· return to work protocols for those who have had the virus and have recovered

· presenteeism – how to deal with employees who should be at home but insist on coming to work

· poostone all non-critical onsite meetings / offsite visitors to our premises

· protocols for contractors e.g. cleaners

· how will we monitor / enforce these practices within the workplace

1. Reinforce colleague welfare mechanisms to assist with health concerns e.g. staff Assistance Program

10. Manage communications / impact using the Major Incident process. Use existing tools for colleague comms e.g. Staff emergency line

11. Ensure each location has adequate supplies of cleaning and hygiene products in accessible and visible locations and colleagues are aware of these

12. Confirm colleagues are aware of the business continuity strategy, and alternate working arrangements, and that they understand how they may be affected and involved.

13. Nominate one person in each location to monitor official information sources, advice and assistance from government, health and other relevant agencies. Suggest this advice is fed into one central source

14. Avoid the use of social media as a source of trustworthy information (unless from official or trusted parties) and reinforce this advice with colleagues.

At a personal level I keep emergency supplies at home:

Bottled water, stocks of tinned food, camping gas and camping cooking appliances, wind up radio or battery operated one (with spare battery supplies), an old style phone (one that doesn't rely upon electricity and takes its power from the exchange), torches.

I could go on but that's the basic precautions I'm taking for this pandemic and have done so for previous.

Workplaces are some of the worst environments for spreading of disease / viruses. If it hits the UK and you can work from home that's what I'll be doing (appreciate that's not a possibility for all)🦠

@Hopingtobeamum that’s a really interesting read, thank you 😊

Having read this thread sleep will be hard won tonight

Updated numbers for all of mainland China

Today (Yesterday)

Confirmed cases: 42,321 (40,235)
Suspected: TBC (23,589)
Severe: TBC (6484)
Deaths: 1012 (909)
Recovered: 3745 (3283)

Suspected & severe cases are always updated later, I’ll be in bed!

Or just bloody wash it with a soapy sponge before you put it away.

Except if you seriously think what you're handling might be infected, you're not necessarily going to want to do that, either. But of course, you could.

I have to take ds2 to the doctor tomorrow which is going to be slightly awkward as he (ds2, not the doctor!) has a high temp, a cough and he’s half East Asian. None of us have been anywhere near any affected areas for over a year, or seen any family from those areas. So unless dh has been really unfortunate and picked it up from work/local public transport, it’s not corona virus, but it will be “interesting” to see if we are profiled due to his (assumed) nationality... Wish us luck!
Ds2 has had a few comments at school based on him having corona virus based on his nationality, but he loves a witty comeback so usually just threatens to lick them.
Longer term, both ds’s are in primary. Dh works in a fairly international city and uses public transport to commute. I work in a large school. Feels a bit like there’s no escaping it

Presumably we're unlikely to lose electricity, so boiled water should be ok. I hate buying bottled water.

Checking in.

DH thinks we need a months supply of food. With 4 DC I am struggling to get such a hefty stock in place. Thanks for tips on part baked rolls — will add those to yet another internet shop. Will also buy vitamin tablets because we’ll run out of fruit and veg quickly. And tissues. Have got quite a lot of paracetamol but need loads of different varieties for ages of DC.

DH thinks if it hits our area we keep the DC off school whether closed or not. Face the consequences later!

Good point re wills. Ours adequate but a bit out of date. Grim thought.

Good luck Utterly... hope you don't get any idiots tomorrow.

PHE continues tracing potential contacts e.g. patients of the two health workers

www.banburycake.co.uk/news/national/18225488.patients-coronavirus-hit-healthcare-workers-brighton-traced/

Life in Singapore has changed somewhat this week. We are being temperature checked on entry to office buildings (and must wear a sticker all day to show that!). My employers are also requiring us to self check our temperatures twice a day and note down the recordings for a once-weekly submission.

Panic buying has gone a bit mad, with shops sold out of toilet roll, pasta, rice etc. We are currently at alert level orange, one away from the most severe which is red. At that point we would expect work from home orders and school closures across the island.

I’m a bit obsessed with checking the news but otherwise not unduly worried. People are on such high alert that the levels of hand washing and sanitising must be far higher than usual. Public transport and buildings are being cleaned thoroughly throughout the day (Singapore is always fastidiously hygienic, and even more-so now). I trust that the government are absolutely on the ball here.

All that said, with estimates of the virus’ incubation period being up to 24 days, I think the next two weeks will be the decider as it were, particularly with regard to flight route closures and travel advice.

Worth a watch. Lower death rates outside China probably reflect the time it takes to die- many cases survive up to 20 days or more before death.

only 10% of new cases are detected in China, maybe up to 25% elsewhere. That means 50,000 new cases each day in China at present.

They believe the epidemic will peak in Wuhan in one month and in China in two months. The rest of the world may not peak for 3-4 months. Limited evidence of impact of control measures to isolate severe cases because mild cases maintain the epidemic.

https://www.lincolnshirelive.co.uk/news/uk-world-news/scientists-discover-wuhan-coronavirus-spreading-3830100?utmsource=linkCopy&utmmmedium=social&utmcampaign=sharebar

Can survive on train poles for 9 days!

Thank you for this thread mojo and everyone else.

Being prepped is a state of mind, great for being calm and focused. The biggest tool in the handbook is the brain.

I wonder how much the severity and death rate in China is linked to the extremely high prevalence of smoking among Chinese men (over 50%?), and what that means for death rate of the disease for non smokers?

I also think that the sheer number of patients overwhelming the system increase the possibility of death.

Sorry, I seem to have made some kind of prepper faux-pas there.

Oh gosh not at all , its just this thread is pretty fast moving and so if people want comprehensive lists of everything they might want to stock up on if housebound for a few weeks then it might be easier to look on the other prepping threads. They will cover things like lightbulbs, batteries etc. Basically the aim is to make sure you have spares of as much stuff as possible since that way you can avoid having contact with others.

Does any one have more info about China's change in reporting/ diagnosing.
Seems strange to be removing the milder cases from the stats. Is this to artificially make it look like the new cases are slowing down so workplaces open? Surely it will skew the death rates higher though and make people more concerned.