Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

@ofwarren I think I would do the same.

My swine flu letters are still in the kitchen drawer of doom...

ifonly4 - DH just text DS. His reply? 'Yes, LMAO.' So he's obviously not concerned in the slightest!

Apparently I heard somewhere that they're not even checking people who come into the country much.

We're in Brighton. I don't think people can just keep their kids away from school indefinitely. We're away for half term, hoping the situation may be under control when we get back

Thanks for the new thread

DivisionBelles - that's one good sign. Keep us updated.

Well it's half term next week, a chance for families to stay with family, go away, meet up with friends etc. Also, unis are striking again so half the students will go home. DD's uni are still following guidelines to isolate if returning from certain areas, which is hardly going to happen in a uni environment. Let's hope there aren't many unknown cases out there with people more likely to be travelling to different areas.

Care home closure= closed to visitors at my mum's home. They still have lots of carers coming in and out, lots of potential to spread infection in a vulnerable population. They also close off floors and discourage mixing. Meals are served in the smaller dining rooms on the upper floors.

Thinking of the WHO advice about sparks... Now would be a good time to have an extra week added to half term in Brighton. Shit for workers but shitter if it spreads. Or those that can stay home should be allowed to and work set via homework aps. No fucking good letting it get a hold in a school as then it will be too late.

Reducing movement and contacts should be a priority. Take a note of what happened as the result of Mr Brighton just living life.

I don't think they will though. Government is school at all costs, chasing up sick and disabled children.

On an unrelated note, I like your kitchen drawer of doom @BlackeyedSusan . I have a box of doom.

That's the thing MakeTea, I agree.
I think I'd keep kids in until the schools close, unless I had a severely vulnerable child or family member. Partly because of the psychological impact on children, not just now, but down the line. It's important to try and not pass any anxieties down.

Thank you for starting this thread. I just spent the evening rounding up all the cold/flu medication around the house (stored in various places, bathrooms, handbags, car glove box etc) to see what we actually had already and topped supplies of tablets/loo roll/hand gel in Lidl tonight. I only bought a few extras, don't want to clear shelves out and leave others with nothing!

One thing I thought of was pets. Make a list of your pets, what they eat, where their food is stored, their routines and any medications, so that if you are very ill someone else can care for them. And their usual vet details.

This is pertinent for this scenario where you might be absent from the home if in for treatment or quarentine but is probably good practice as you never know what might happen anyway....

I have dogs and horses and the kids have guinea pigs, a rabbit and hamsters and it occurred to me tonight that no one else in the family would have a clue where to start looking after them if me or my eldest was away.

amp.ft.com/content/a32e62b4-4be9-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5?__twitter_impression=true When it comes to coronavirus, men are more vulnerable

Differences in immune function appear to start straight out of the womb

The Financial Times

Thank you for starting new thread. Place marking until I catch up.

Oh and if I lived in Brighton I would be keeping my children at home as from tomorrow, as it is only 4 days until half term, then I would be reevaluating the situation after half term.

My workplace (University) has given us all hand gel and is issuing daily updates/advice to staff on the corona virus, so I do feel like they are absolutely on top of the situation and will take any action necessary.

Marking my place. These threads are really useful

Thanks for this thread.

I get comfort from feeling informed and expecting the worst as it were. And doing what I can. Which is basically hand washing after being outside and having a full medicine cabinet.

If I start fretting or feel I can't usefully learn anymore i will hide it (and focus on a comedy to destress!)

Thanks for the new thread, I still haven't finished catching up on thread no 2 as I was away for the weekend. Definitely an uptick in UK cases today and mentions of it in the UK news which is a little concerning. I think I hoped it would mostly pass us by!

@BlackeyedSusan yes the government won't allow people to keep their kids out of school until the virus is well and truly out of control. As you say this country is "school at all costs", plus most parents will be apoplectic if it got to the point schools shut before a child at their school tested positive.

We're being ridiculed as "hysterical" for the mere suggestion that parents in Brighton might be wise to pull their kids out because of this virus spreading while people are asymptomatic.

Goth mummy if we kept our kids off for the next four days we'd be fined £120 per child. I also agree with whoever said about not making the dc overly worried by keeping them off. Plus people have to work.
Having said that I am worried about a case at either of their schools. The closed GP surgery isn't a million miles away, though it's not our local one.

OYBBK I am in Brighton and early evening I got a GP text of advice re Coronavirus. The first thing on the message was my NHS number, never had that before.

I have had a good read of the Imperial College paper. It's very impressive.

I don't expect you to place a great deal of trust in my comments and if an active statistician is available I'll be keen to hear their opinion. My qualifications for what they're worth are studying maths to postgraduate level and being a regular reader of medical research proposals as a lay reviewer.

In my opinion the paper is impressive, both mathematically and as a amazing collaborative investigation involving about 70 people. They have gathered information about infections detected and outcomes for several groups ie mainland China, repatriated on specific flights and created thorough mathematical models.

They have taken into account the amount of time it takes to identify and report an infection and to report a death. Incomplete information and censorship, asymptomatic individuals who are infectious and the effect of exponential spread (meaning in essence the number of infections doubling every so many days).

Their conclusion is (as I understand it) if 100 people are infected some will be asymptomatic, some will be ill and recover in about 22 days. Of those 100 people one is expected to die, again about 22 days from onset.

Their confidence interval means that if 200 people were infected this anaysis is 95% certain that between 1 and 8 people of those 200 would die.

They also explain in detail how a number of factors lead to the "case fatality rate" in Hubei being estimated at 18%. As I understanding it (and they have a useful graphic illustrating this) this is due to, for example 18 known deaths and 82 known infected and ill or very ill people giving 18 deaths in 100 but additionally 1700 people who are infected but asymptomatic or only mildly unwell who have been completely missed from the stayistics because they haven't been tested.

Outside Hubei eg on a repatriation flight everyone is tested so all the asymptomatic people or those with a sniffle but no temperature are identified and included in the statistics hence the liwer and more accurate "case fatality rate"

Thank you so much HasaDigaEbowai I hope that is a useful summary.

With a young baby to think about I'd take the fine from the school. They are total germ factories and if it's going to spread like wildfire anywhere it's at schools.

New to these threads. Our local Chinese takeaway has shut this week, saying they are self-isolating due to recent travel to China.

Thanks for this thread. Can anyone tell me how the media coverage and feel of this outbreak compare to other health scares such as swine flu as I don’t remember worrying about them but was much younger and clearly felt more invincible. I struggle with anxiety around all things to do with health so am finding this really hard. Trying to be practical and focus on the things I can do to minimise risk and have stocked up on hand gel, masks and food etc still feel really anxious about how bad it could be and all the unknown factors.

Checking in, thanks all

I'm in Brighton and crapping myself. Got 2 kids at v large secondary school. 1 not in today as had study leave but has to go in for mock A'Level tomorrow. Other obviously due in all week. Half term next week which is good and a relief.

Really really worried.