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Brexit
Original poster

Do you think we definitely WILL leave the EU on October 31st 2019?

301 replies

elprup · 01/08/2019 14:49

As it says in the title really - do you think we will definitely leave the EU on that date or do you think we'll still be "in" on November 1st?

Also, do you think we will leave with a deal or without a deal - and will Boris still be PM by then?

I'm just wondering how people will think the next three months are going to pan out, basically.

OP posts:
Songsofexperience · 01/08/2019 15:19

I'm personally worried about a 'surprise' no deal...
I don't think BJ likes confrontation. The way to avoid that would be for him to declare it early before anyone can stop it... not sure if I'm being completely paranoid here.

InTheHeatofLisbon · 01/08/2019 15:20

I think we'll leave, and I think it'll be without a deal. He's refusing to meet EU leaders until the backstop is dropped. He's running the clock down.

80sMum · 01/08/2019 15:24

No, I don't think we will. Leaving without a deal would be madness. I can't bring myself to believe that even BJ would be quite that stupid.

We need a deal and I think there's not enough time between now and the 31st of October to thrash one out.

There will have to be either:
Yet another extension, or
Another referendum, or
A general election.

Or maybe all three.

iwantadishwasher · 01/08/2019 15:35

Up until yesterday I would have said no chance.

Today, I'm not so sure. Johnson is playing a game, but I think he's the only one who knows the rules.

Pineapplefish · 01/08/2019 15:36

I still can't quite believe that any politician will take us out of the EU with no deal. Surely it would be political suicide??

grafittiartist · 01/08/2019 15:48

I have said all along that we won't go- but it may be wishful thinking.
I think Boris is more interested in being popular than keeping a promise.

iwantadishwasher · 01/08/2019 15:49

That's what I generally think, Pineapple, but honestly, I don't rule anything out now.

ifonly4 · 01/08/2019 15:55

I think we'll leave, unless we're getting somewhere with negotiations for some legislation is brought in to prevent it.

frozendaisy · 01/08/2019 17:48

Yes I think we are out of the EU on 31st October.

GhostofFrankGrimes · 01/08/2019 17:53

Yes, unless parliament intervenes. Johnson has boxed himself into a corner, he has to deliver no deal. If not, the Tories oust him and replace him with another "believer" and we go through the same process again.

Decormad38 · 01/08/2019 18:08

For all those who think BJ wouldn't, couldn't then look at his track record of failure and wake up. We are now officially up shit creek!

bellinisurge · 01/08/2019 18:25

I think we will and I think we will have caved on all sorts of red lines to do it.

SingingBabooshkaBadly · 01/08/2019 18:33

I can’t see us still being in the EU on 1 November. I hope Bellini is right and some red lines will have been dropped but I’m worried it will be No Deal.

Pineapple, you should be correct. No Deal should be political suicide but Johnson and the ERG are hard at word re-framing the narrative to shift the blame on to the EU. Despicable.

Oblomov19 · 01/08/2019 18:33

I too think he's more interested in the 'ride' and the 'journey' ( of now until end Oct) and popularity than recognising what an awful mess this is.

Original poster
elprup · 01/08/2019 18:43

I think we will and I think we will have caved on all sorts of red lines to do it.

Boris seems to be fairly pro immigration, unlike TM - so I guess that's one red line he'd be willing to give in on.

I just don't see how he can get himself out of this mess - he's said he won't come to the negotiating table until the EU confirm they'll remove the backstop. Which basically means we're screwed as I can't see Boris or the EU backing down!

OP posts:
costacoffeecup · 01/08/2019 18:56

Yes I think that's what he wants to do. And I don't know if there's a way of stopping him.

Dora26 · 01/08/2019 19:02

View from Ireland: economic suicide not just political- UK will slide into deep Depression and I just hope it won’t drag us down also. We can’t believe UK politics re EU

Theworldisfullofgs · 01/08/2019 19:09

I think it depends on the by election today. Thst could leave the govt with one seat majority.

If Dr Philip Lee leaves the torys as he's is talking about...then...

Oliversmumsarmy · 01/08/2019 19:23

I do think we will leave without a deal on 31st October

I don't think there is any time left to sort a deal out even if everyone was in agreement.

However I do think that it won't be as unpopular as a lot if people think purely on the basis of not leaving in March and the fiasco and general boredom of the incessant voting that followed. I think going through something similar to TMs deal which kept being voted on again and again and nothing happening would make us more of a laughing stock

I do think people (remainers as well as leavers) are just so sick of it all they just want to leave and be done with it all come what may.

Trying to please everyone is never going to.happen

Theworldisfullofgs · 01/08/2019 19:27

Even if we leave or especially if we leave this is not going away. It will be decades of negotiations. It will dominate political life and society at the expense of everything else.

DeRigueurMortis · 01/08/2019 19:52

I think BJ will push it but I'm not sure it's a done deal.

I'm pretty sure parliament will push back very strongly to prevent it - which ironically might be his game plan.

He gets to say "I did what I said I would do but I've been thwarted by those pesky elected representatives in the HoC".

He could prorogue parliament of course but that's a very risky move on a number of fronts and I'm not convinced even BJ would go that far (but I could be very wrong here).

I think it's more likely we'll will get a general election. If the Tories win with a decent majority under BJ then I think an exit with no deal is inevitable sadly.

Cackleweb · 01/08/2019 19:58

With 3 years and 3 prime ministers since the vote and with 91 days still to go, we still have no idea what's going to happen, what Brexit actually means. Both businesses and households are in a holding position, waiting. And this is what angers me the most. I think it is sheer criminal incompetence

Will it be another extention? Unlikely as France had to be talked down from kicking us out in April. The EU27 just want us to leave now.

A withdrawal agreement? Unlikely as parliament is having a nice holiday despite the impending national crisis, then it's conference season and then we'll be a month away from 31st October. It's unlikely the EU27 would be willing to renegotiate at this late stage.

General Election? Could happen - but it depends on what happens tonight at the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election.

No Deal? Likely. I doubt Mr Johnson has strong views either way (similar to his decision on whether to support Leave or Remain). It's those who surround him, those who want a No Deal Brexit, that will push us over the line.

MockerstheFeManist · 01/08/2019 20:00

In the words of the Tao:

Those who know do not speak
Those who speak do not know

mindproject · 01/08/2019 20:29

I think we will leave on that date with no deal. I think this is what some people have wanted all along. Some people want total chaos, they get off on the misery they cause to others.

lljkk · 01/08/2019 21:04

I put 70% on crashing out 31 October.
20% on extension.
10% on a deal or revoke.