Do you think we definitely WILL leave the EU on October 31st 2019?

[elprup]

As it says in the title really - do you think we will definitely leave the EU on that date or do you think we'll still be "in" on November 1st?

Also, do you think we will leave with a deal or without a deal - and will Boris still be PM by then?

I'm just wondering how people will think the next three months are going to pan out, basically.

Sadly, I think we'll leave.

Sadly you are right Frumpety. And the only way we get an extension is if the PM asks for one - which all the EU27 have to agree to. If BJ doesn’t even ask for one we will leave without a deal.

Sounds like it might come down to who panics first about the border between NI and ROI.

A no deal requires that UK trades on WTO. However, WTO will not force either EU or UK to erect a border between ROI and NI. Will the EU accept an open border between ROI (EU) and NI (UK)?

I think we will leave without a deal on 31st.

Boris can only stop no deal in October if
1.Parliament votes through a WA ? I presume he needs Parliament to vote on it and cannot do it unilaterally

1. He revokes, does he have to involve Parliament if he revokes ?
2. The EU countries grant another extension

Can't think of any other solutions to the situation of no deal and I do appreciate that some people believe no deal is the best option.

I think Boris will revoke at the last minute and call a GE.

Either that or we'll leave with no deal.

What will work best for Boris Johnson? That is what he will do.

peregrina is spot on

I’ve been thinking that he’s one of thee sociopaths that wants to create a crisis in order to be the hero that saves the day....so far, he succeeded. Now, he can only crash out if he’s certain that he can shift the blame to somebody else, which in this case is the EU. Otherwise it’ll backfire.
Will he EU see his bluff and manage to diverge the blame? I’m sure they will (at least read his plotting). Will the public see it? Not sure.
Will the USA bother to intervene to support the GFA? With trump in power? No sure either

(Sorry, to answer the question of OP, yes I think we will leave on 31.10 and I fear it’ll be a no deal)

Boris's no deal helps him to divert attention away from the GFA. If EU install a border he can say it was their fault. Even if UK installed a border too in NI he can still say it makes no difference as EU installed a border anyway?

I thought we wouldn't.
But is bj doesn't ask for an extension we will.
Fucking twat.

I'm working on the theory that the point of the whole Brexit thing always was ... Division. Literally to divide society. Didn't matter over what. Could have been hobnobs or tea/coffee, but EU membership turned out to work best. Got folk most angry.

Haven't people like Farage & Cummings ranted publicly to say as much? They want to 'tear down the system'. What they really mean is they want to tear us all apart. They are enjoying the conflict & divisiveness and want to spread their own attitude like a nasty disease. Bannon is the same. They aren't trying to achieve anything but chaos, distrust and insecurity.

I know some people think there's a financial motive, but that's merely allies (like JRM). The figureheads literally just want the discord. Pointless change makes them perversely happy. They enjoy their little power trips in middle of it all, too.

If there was a vote of no confidence and by some fluke JC actually got in then I see worse than what anyone can imagine.

Anyone with the slightest survival instincts and a bit of cash will be on the first plane out of here and the people left will be the ones who have to pick up the pieces without any of the money that would have come from those that paid the bigger tax bills.

Bannon is an accolyte of generational theory , more specifically the part about turning. We are meant to be in a crisis phase where the old is torn down and the world remade. The last crisis phase culminated in ww2. Started with the great depression.
Bannon has been trying to provoke a crisis that is bad enough to tear down the old and be remade in the way that he wants it. There's a few men around with a god complex at the moment. Disaster capitalists of various forms and others who want to be disaster socialists.
Remember those dictators that we view with disdain and disgust through the lens of history were considered idealists at the beginning of their careers.

Anyone with the slightest survival instincts and a bit of cash will be on the first plane out of here and the people left will be the ones who have to pick up the pieces without any of the money that would have come from those that paid the bigger tax bills

Sorry but that is crap.... Project Fear, you ve zero evidence for this assertion, unless you are talking about Brexit? lol!

Illjkk - I agree, I've had the same suspicions as you all along. It started long before Brexit. It always seemed like people were being provoked in different ways. Unfortunately, millions took the bait, and now we're all pretty much trapped.

Unfortunately, millions took the bait, and now we're all pretty much trapped

As I said above, not everyone will be trapped but apparently that is Project Fear.

We're not leaving on 31st October, because Boris wants a full 5 year term, and there isn't time for a GE before Brexit. He can't win a GE straight after a no deal Brexit either, because the govt would be too busy firefighting (and would be a v. high risk strategy).

He wants parliament to stop no deal, so he can extend, blame MPs/the courts/remoaners/the Irish and win an election next spring.

If this works we'll leave on something that looks very much like May's WA, possibly on 31/10/20.

What will work best for Boris Johnson? That is what he will do

He wants parliament to stop no deal, so he can extend, blame MPs/the courts/remoaners/the Irish and win an election next spring

I agree with both of these. Though we might then be back into will he won't he "no deal" after another election - but I suppose if he had a decent majority he could ignore the brextremists.

1.Parliament votes through a WA ? I presume he needs Parliament to vote on it and cannot do it unilaterally 2. He revokes, does he have to involve Parliament if he revokes ? 3. The EU countries grant another extension

No. 3 is realistically the best way to prevent no-deal. The EU have said they would extend if there was a GE (though this would require a PM to agree too, so If BJ hung on til a GE in early November we’d still exit) or a referendum was called. I can’t see the latter based on the current arithmetic- for every Tory who might be able to support one to prevent a no-deal, there seem to be as many Labour MPs implacably opposed to it.... another reason Labour is utterly screwed.

I think we will leave on 31st Oct

It has already been stated that even if there’s a vote of no confidence in Sept to force an ellection, there’s no time before then to do one and there’s no way Boris will extend! His whole stance now is that we leave come what may. He doesn’t need a majority to leave the EU which he says he intends to do no matter what. He’ll just let the clock go down.

Oaken he could revoke though couldn't he ? I know the chances are slim but he could actually physically do it all by himself if push came to shove ?

Yes he could but going from ‘we are leaving no matter what’ To revoke is one hell of a leap. No chance imo

I think you are probably right Sunshine . However there are still a number of scenarios that potentially could happen and revoke is one of those.

I wish that people would stop saying 'even remainers just want it over with now and to leave the EU on the 31st October'

NO I FUCKING DON'T!

....just saying....