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Brexit
Original poster

Do you think we definitely WILL leave the EU on October 31st 2019?

301 replies

elprup · 01/08/2019 14:49

As it says in the title really - do you think we will definitely leave the EU on that date or do you think we'll still be "in" on November 1st?

Also, do you think we will leave with a deal or without a deal - and will Boris still be PM by then?

I'm just wondering how people will think the next three months are going to pan out, basically.

OP posts:
Songsofexperience · 07/08/2019 11:06

The uk will likely leave without a deal then try and make a number of mini deals ASAP.

It's not just about what we want janista.

Janista · 07/08/2019 11:08

Parliament voted to give us the referendum.

Voted to agree the question.

Voted to agree that it would be implemented.
We had the referendum.

We then had a General Election where Parliament (80%+) campaigned to respect the referendum.

Parliament voted to trigger art 50.

Parliament then rejected the WA 3 times.

Parliament has overwhelmingly had its say on Brexit, overwhelmingly.

...and at the end of all those votes Parliament has voted for leaving the EU with no-deal as the default.

That is what your Parliament of remainers have done, they haven't been forced to do it, they have had 3.5 years.

We are leaving the EU, as Parliament has agreed.

Without a deal Smile

frumpety · 07/08/2019 11:12

Janista the ERG also voted against the WA , I don't think they would be happy to be described as remainers

Songsofexperience · 07/08/2019 11:18

Well our parliament hasn't been very competent I'll give you that.

MyOtherProfile · 07/08/2019 11:46

DP is type 1 diabetic and you are under the impression that all type 1 diabetics are dead now because of BREXIT

No of course I'm not @Oliversmumsarmy you would have to be dumb to read that from my reply. I'm saying that if a T1 just magically reduced their insulin like your dp is apparently just magically reducing his meds then they would die. And yes I do have very close personal experience of T1!

Mistigri · 07/08/2019 11:46

If we were leaving on 31/10 then the govt would be making serious moves to prepare.

They're doing less than May's government did earlier this year.

If this doesn't tell you that we're not leaving, I can't help you.

Boris will be "forced" to seek an extension and will win a GE next spring on a parliament vs the people platform.

Oliversmumsarmy · 07/08/2019 12:03

MyOtherProfile
What has been happening is (DP thinks it is because they are stock piling) when DP orders 3 boxes of "pens" he only gets 1 box which is a pita as DP travels a lot and likes to pack back up insulin in his case as well as carry on stuff and trying to get our doctor to actually prescribe an extra prescription if they think that he has more than a weeks supply is like getting blood out of a stone

DP wanted us to leave deal or no deal in March so at least then we could get a deal going and by now would have a proper supply and he wouldn't be subject to this farce.

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 12:23

I wouldn't be so sure of a quick deal Oliversmumsarmy, trade deals usually take a few years, although you would hope with essential medication that they would speed things up.

Isn't it great that we have such wonderful and experienced negotiators?

whyamidoingthis · 07/08/2019 12:35

@Mistigri - If we were leaving on 31/10 then the govt would be making serious moves to prepare.

I admire your faith in them but I reckon they're just incompetent and arrogant. I think they assume the EU will cave but that is not going to happen. There are serious preparations going on around the EU for no deal.

Boris will be "forced" to seek an extension and will win a GE next spring on a parliament vs the people platform.

Boris can ask for an extension. It doesn't mean he'll get one. The EU is really fed up with the UK at this stage and there may not be unanimous agreement to grant one. There is no possibility of an extension "just because". There would need to be a fairly quick GE or a new referendum to justify it. I'm not sure a Spring GE would qualify.

MyOtherProfile · 07/08/2019 12:45

@Oliversmumsarmy I find it very worrying that pharmacies are feeling the need to stockpile. I don't share your DPs optimism about getting on with deals. We will be in such a weak position when it comes to negotiating deals. There's a list of deals under negotiation on the gov website and none look very optimistic from here. Except a few with very small countries.

MyOtherProfile · 07/08/2019 12:46

Isn't it great that we have such wonderful and experienced negotiators?

Confused where's the sob emoji?

whyamidoingthis · 07/08/2019 12:48

@Janista - The financial sector got its no deal planning worked out already, as did flights,

I wouldn't describe the situation with flights as "worked out". What has been agreed is bare bones connectivity. Flights from the UK can travel to EU. However, UK airlines cannot operate intra-EU flights. This agreement will expire in March 2020.

maddy68 · 07/08/2019 12:49

No (I hope not anyway)

zonkin · 07/08/2019 12:54

I think BJ has every intention of leaving on 31st October. And without a deal.

He's clearly getting ready for a general election. That's why he's promising lots of cash to everyone and every project going. How he will get the money to actually realise all his promises appears to be neither here nor there.

Quite a few Tories, including JRM, stand to make quite a bit of money out of a no deal Brexit. The politicians aren't the ones who will suffer personally from an economic downturn. And shame on Corby n for his role in this mess.

GreyGardens88 · 07/08/2019 13:17

I think the incompetent government will get nothing done by 31st October and we will leave no deal by default as EU refuses to grant extension

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 13:43

But Boris Johnson will make sure that he is OK GreyGardens.

bellinisurge · 07/08/2019 14:42

@Janista lives in Australia. The "we" bit of their posts is "you". Shit stirring for fun.

zonkin · 07/08/2019 15:12

Well that makes @Janista's posts rather redundant. Rather distanced from European politics just as we are from Antipodean politics. Ie. Not much interest or knowledge.

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 15:38

Maybe every time Janista posts we should come back with irrelevant stuff about Australian politics? How satisfying to have 5 PMs in as many years - maybe next time they will get it right.

TheElementsSong · 07/08/2019 15:41

Didn't they Aussies lose a PM in the sea?

zonkin · 07/08/2019 15:46

Yes, hardly a great track record there. I can think of a few issues that are rather shameful and I'm not particularly interested in their politics. Just the basic stuff that gets reported here. I'm not seeing many role model politicians.

Peregrina · 07/08/2019 15:53

But still it will be all right in Australia, say I from the safe distance of half way across the world.

PortLouis1996 · 07/08/2019 17:02

Maybe Janista is a beef 🥩 producer and stands to gain from a no deal Brexit?

Janista · 07/08/2019 22:10

I am British and closely follow British politics, vote in uk elections and visit regularly with deep family and friendship connections

I've every right to comment have a view and be engaged.

PortLouis1996 · 08/08/2019 02:04

I've every right to comment have a view and be engaged

True, but that you are mostly outside the EU seems to bother some posters.

Bottom line about Brexit is the Irish Border issue. A no deal departure by UK from EU forces EU to install some form of border control between ROI (EU) and NI (UK) as they do with other non EU countries in Eastern Europe. GFA is then effectively binned by EU regulations.

Consequences for the Island of Ireland are significant regards trade.

NI milk producers will be effected as tariffs make the cost to ROI higher. Already reports of cattle in NI may need to be culled.

ROI beef producers will face difficulties too as tariffs applied to beef under WTO are high. Around 50% of Irish beef is sold to UK.

Cost of border control will be large as it is around 500 km long and not a straight line.

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