Do you think we definitely WILL leave the EU on October 31st 2019?

[elprup]

As it says in the title really - do you think we will definitely leave the EU on that date or do you think we'll still be "in" on November 1st?

Also, do you think we will leave with a deal or without a deal - and will Boris still be PM by then?

I'm just wondering how people will think the next three months are going to pan out, basically.

Can someone explain what impact te results of the by election will have?

No, we will still bin the EU on Nov 1st. Parliament will stop it, either by a vote of no confidence, culminating in a General Election or by some other means like stopping a no deal exit.

The political class-based remainers (such as Alistair Campbell) will not allow us to leave.

Can someone explain what impact te results of the by election will have?

If anyone other than the Tory wins the Government majority goes down to 1. If the Tory wins, it's back up to two.

But more I think, it will depend on the nature of the win. If the Tory candidate gets back in it should give Johnson a bit more of a 'bounce'. If the Brexit party comes first or even second, it shows that they are still a force to be reckoned with.

I was of the opinion we wouldn't leave on March 29th from about early Feb.

I think we will leave on 31st October. We are a bit further out than when I was sure about the first deadline, so I might yet change my mind.

But its not looking good.

But what will it mean in real terms for brexit? Sudden GE? Vote of no confidence?

I get it. He's going to find any deal even harder to pass. I don't see this as a positive really, surely it makes no deal more likely.

No Deal will happen unless something stops it. Not much sign of that.

Yep. And yet we had people on here a few short months ago saying there was no way no deal could ever happen. I want to go back to that

There's a lot of talk of trying to get another deal from Europe but I think it will definitely be no dealing - In reality it's likely to be a "managed" no deal.

Yes I think we will, and it will be with no deal. In reality no deal has only ever been the way we would leave as a deal would never be reached. They were never going to make it easy for us to leave, as they don't want other countries doing the same.

I was hopeful that we would have revoke at the time of the petition / marches.
However No deal is the default option; the Cabinet is chock full of Brexiteers and ERG who are wealthy and can insulate themselves from the worst parts of the aftermath of a no deal Brexit.

I don’t think Boris will risk calling a GE, so the next one is due in May 2022.
We will have 3 years of recession; depression and chaos.
The Leavers will realise what a shitshow leaving is; having experienced it and will be pro EU.
There will be time to galvanise a even opposition. The Tories will be voted out, and the UK has to go back cap in hand and ask to rejoin the EU.

In the meantime; I hope there is not a firesale of the NHS and an other British assets to the US.
Is 3 years enough time for the UK to split? Because I’m sure there’ll be another Scottish referendum.

Johnson may not have a choice about calling a GE. He only needs to lose a VoNC and if an alternative Government can't be formed, it becomes automatic.

@Janista , just in case the message hasn't got through to you in Australia, a managed no Deal is like putting on a pair of incontinence pants when you jump out of a plane without a parachute. There is no such thing as a managed No Deal - just desperate and expensive acts of mitigation against disaster.

I didn’t realise that @Peregrina
However, what can he haveca vote of no confidence over.
Bojo is canny. He’s seen TM desperately trying to get her deal through.
He’s not going to put anything through; and just run down the clock.
When do the MPs pissoff for their summer break; or have they gone already?

Very sadly I think we will, and I think we will leave without a deal. I think the mistake people are making in thinking "even Boris wouldn't let that happen" is in imagining he gives the teeniest shite about the people of the UK. I suspect his assets are protected, and that, plus securing his place in the history books, is all he cares about.

I have come to the conclusion that, for most politicians, ordinary people are at best a resource to be exploited and at worse, vermin to be exterminated.

They do not care about us.

I would love it if Johnson's place in the history books was ' the shortest time for a PM to hold office was Boris Johnson's 3 months, when he lost a VoNC, a General Election was held and he lost his seat.'

At least George Canning managed to die in Office to claim the prize of the shortest tenure so far!

In answer to the OP , No. I think we will still be in the EU on November the 1st 2019.

Can I just clarify, do you mean leave as is no deal or leave as in still in CU/SM , that might mean I need to adjust my initial answer

Sorry last post completely nonsensical , ignore !

I think we will leave without a deal. The Leave campaigns promises could never be met and to admit that is too much humiliation. Instead of a sensible compromise like EEA, there will be no deal and the economy will slowly decline, but it will all be considered the fault of the EU and not the bollocks talked by the Leave campaign.

No, of course not. The only way for no deal on 31st oct would be for the EU to lose patience and kick us out and I can't see them doing that at this moment in time.

Johnson will not be able to without shutting Parliament down, and that is very unlikely. The only thing Johnson is any good at is bullshitting and cheating.

I thought no deal is the default if a WA isn't signed or a new extension granted IAmNoAngel