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Original poster

Do you think we definitely WILL leave the EU on October 31st 2019?

301 replies

elprup · 01/08/2019 14:49

As it says in the title really - do you think we will definitely leave the EU on that date or do you think we'll still be "in" on November 1st?

Also, do you think we will leave with a deal or without a deal - and will Boris still be PM by then?

I'm just wondering how people will think the next three months are going to pan out, basically.

OP posts:
StealthPolarBear · 06/08/2019 08:04

I'm hearing on the news now that Johnson could set a GE date for early November, meaning parliament couldn't sit for the preceding five weeks (and therefore couldn't block a no deal exit).
Have I understood that right? That's what hell do then won't he?

StealthPolarBear · 06/08/2019 08:04

We're screwed. I feel violently angry.

CrunchyCarrot · 06/08/2019 08:15

I'm hearing on the news now that Johnson could set a GE date for early November, meaning parliament couldn't sit for the preceding five weeks (and therefore couldn't block a no deal exit).
Have I understood that right? That's what hell do then won't he?

omg what?!! Can Parliament actually stop a No Deal happening, though? I didn't think that was possible, unless it's via a VoNC in the PM (would that even work at that late date?)

PostNotInHaste · 06/08/2019 08:20

I feel the same Stealth but also quite militant this morning and am not going down without a fight. I’ve said on the Westminstenders thread, I am the Grandchild of the Generation that voted in the Nazis, our Grandchildren will not forgive us if we do not make a huge noise in the small amount of time we have remaining.

StealthPolarBear · 06/08/2019 08:20

I have no idea. With this whole thing, jus when I think I understand it everything changes and I'm told what I was previously told was wrong. Hoping this is the same!

StealthPolarBear · 06/08/2019 08:21

Just to be clear this was speculation from some lawyer. Not a specific plan from the pm as such

WhatdoImean · 06/08/2019 08:45

I believe that the recent parliamentary manoeuvrings require the Government to report on the NI situation, thus preventing them from proroguing parliament. That said... how that works if there is an election scheduled leaves me scratching my head...

Note that BoJo does NOT get to choose the date of the next election (fixed term parliament acts), UNLESS a) he is lost a VoNC, b) no other party can form a government in 14 days.

As such, he has to lose a VoNC first.... at that point, "convention" is that no major decisions are taken until after the next election.

The problem is.... BoJo could argue that he is not making a decision; Parliament has already made the decision to leave on the 31st, and that it would be AGAINST convention for him to over rule Parliament, thus the 31st leave must stay...

WhatdoImean · 06/08/2019 08:46

has lost

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:46

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:46

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:46

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:46

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:46

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:47

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

AmarilloVan · 06/08/2019 08:47

How about this scenario:

Johnson loses a vote of no confidence with a handful of Tory remainers voting against him and dozens of Tories abstaining.

Yvette Cooper cobbles together a parliamentary majority of multi-party MPs in a Government of National Unity with the promise to dissolve after a confirmatory referendum to be held in December. Her fragile coalition is held together by Labour, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid Cymru, Green, most independents and now former Tory rebels.

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

frumpety · 06/08/2019 08:47

No deal, a deal, extension and revoke are all still on the table. It isn't over until its over Smile

noodlenosefraggle · 06/08/2019 08:56

I think yes. The problem with a vote of no confidence and another election is the likelihood of a Tory/Need it party coalition. Then not only would we have a hard brexit, but a bunch of useless twats in government for the next 5 years. This is what I don't understand about JC saying he will call a vote of no confidence in September. Surely wasting 5 weeks where Parliament doesn't sit is almost guaranteed to end in a default no deal? The only answer is that he's playing games and he wants no deal, but it not to be his fault.He has no chance of winning a GE before Brexit, as the Brexit Party will stand in Labour leave seats. They were an irrelevance in the by election.

Sarahlou63 · 06/08/2019 09:16

What if the opposition parties wait and call a VONC in mid Oct then cobble together a govt. of national unity in or around 30th October and revoke or extend? Makes more sense than paralysing parliament before the 31st.

StealthPolarBear · 06/08/2019 09:21

Thank you WhatdoImean. Not quite as bleak as I originally understood it then.

StealthPolarBear · 06/08/2019 09:21

Didn't tm call a GE though? She hadn't lost a vonc

Mistigri · 06/08/2019 09:59

Didn't tm call a GE though? She hadn't lost a vonc

Labour supported the GE motion in 2017, giving her the required (under the FTPA) two thirds of MPs.

Mistigri · 06/08/2019 10:05

A realistic possibility or pure fantasy?

Possible but unlikely IMO. Would enough Labour MPs support someone other than Corbyn? We don't really know.

The only realistic scenarios I can see right now are:

  • no deal followed by who knows what - fairly sure it won't be followed by an immediate GE as the govt will have its hands full
  • Blowjob is "forced" to extend A50 (scare quotes because this is what he actually wants parliament to do), allowing him to win a majority in a GE later this autumn or in early spring.

Would love to think that the other parties could cooperate in a GNU but I don't think there are enough sane, pragmatic MPs in this parliament.

MeganBacon · 06/08/2019 18:13

I've given up (almost) all hope of revoke and now assume it will be no deal. I think though that there is more hope of a cobbled together deal (a variation of TM's deal) shortly after 31st Oct, once the whites of everyone's eyes have been seen, so everyone can claim to be brave and principled.
I like the idea of the government of national unity but no way will it happen. Corbyn won't allow it, he wants Boris to no deal so he can try to mop up afterwards, and anyway very few remain politicians have shown the required level of gumption or selflessness.
So no deal, cobbled together deal after that, then GE, which Boris will win because the only thing that there seems to be a clear majority for is that a Corbyn government is the only thing worse than any Brexit outcome. In my work environment, this seems to be the one thing Leavers and Remainers have in common.
But there's a lot of moving parts.

frumpety · 06/08/2019 19:35

That's the thing that some leavers still haven't grasped about No deal, that's not the end of Brexit is it Megan ? We still need to sort out all the stuff included in the WA regardless of the outcome. Then we can start the whole getting a trade agreement malarkey.

Revoke is much simpler Wink

Oliversmumsarmy · 06/08/2019 20:25

then GE, which Boris will win because the only thing that there seems to be a clear majority for is that a Corbyn government is the only thing worse than any Brexit outcome

When I said this I was told there was no evidence to support this and it was all project fear.

I really can't get worked up about it all and I can't believe everyone getting near on hysterical trying to second guess what is going to happen.

Things will play out and as long as the sun rises in the morning and the moon comes out at night and the world keeps turning then I will just work with what I have.

If worse comes to the worse I will just pack my bags and leave.