Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 5th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

*on the oldest age group’s line

@JanglyBeads

Bit worrying to see reddening on the oldest age groups recently?

that's only when formatted at an individual age band level. The 7 day rate for the over 90s was 75 per 100,000 on 22nd July, creeping up to 83 and 84 in the last couple of days shown. So still relatively very low; although admittedly higher than any other aged 70 and over age band.

It may vary a bit, but I imagine that younger secondary school kids are having many fewer contacts in the holidays.

Definitely, and many older ones too actually. And they are testing less too, given that schools weren’t allowed to give LFTs outfit the holidays.

The indications of next term will come first when Scottish schools start returning, which I think is as early as the end of next week in some districts, following week for most plus Leicestershire, then from the bank holiday week when English schools
start ‘supervised’ testing.

*out for the holidays, sorry

Scotland's cases will also be impacted by the recent re-opening so I expect the uptick in cases. It is likely to become more noticeable from the end of next week. Of course, people will attribute the increase to schools (as they always do).

OTOH our reopening seems it have had a negligible effect on cases, so....

...our reopening seems it have had a negligible effect on cases, so...

I would argue England's reopening had quite a noticeable impact. Our cases started to fall rapidly on July 15 (the Euro 2020 peak).

The trend reversed on July 28 (date of specimen) when we saw the impact of the first "re-opening" weekend. The drop turned into a slow steady increase.

I still don’t get the case numbers being lower than many predicted. I’m not complaining(!), but given we’re being told double vaccinated isn’t as good as we thought at stopping spread and getting it (but it is great at reducing serious illness), and we’re now doing far more than we’ve been permitted to throughout the pandemic, how are cases increasing so slowly? I just can’t quite add it all up. The only thing I can think is people aren’t bothering to test, but surely that’ll lead to a big leap soon enough as it spreads from these people. I’m not looking for doom and gloom, I’m genuinely trying to understand. The govt seems happy to let it spread through the summer, and mitigations are pretty non exist except self isolation (I heard it mentioned today on the radio a star about a large % of pinged people were ignoring the ping and many have deleted the app anyway) so how are we only at the level we are?!

R is like a sum though like a diet with everything youve eaten. And whether or not schools cause spike - not in doubt is that 30 people in classrooms to tune of 10m (of 68) might be enough to go over or under 1.
Bristol certain seems very affected by schools. But other places are low enough below 1 it doesnt matter. (Bristol obviously having 2 unis too).
Then there will be parents off looking after kids too. Only 5 weeks of holiday so over 1/5 parents of school kids off over the summer. But likely much higher to cover primary.
Then there are people all out of the country abroad (1m at a guess?)
Do clubs have less impact here because

• uni students have been on campuses anyway
• lots of secondary kids already had covid.
• people were drinking in pubs anyway so those were exposed.

Have most pub goers - heavier drinkers already had covid?

the upward drift in England in terms of reported case numbers is both fairly widespread and fairly gradual. Series of graphs showing at region and UTLA level the seven day rate per 100,000 from 19th July.

NB.The x-axis scale will vary.

Starting with the regions

Counties Buckinghamshire to Hampshire

Hertfordshire to Nottinghamshire

Oxfordshire to Worcestershire

East of England UTLAs

East Midlands UTLAs

Inner London Boroughs: Camden to Newham

Southwark to Westminster

North East UTLAs : County Durham to Redcar & Cleveland

South Tyneside to Sunderland

North West UTLAs Blackburn to Liverpool

Manchester to Trafford

Warrington to the Wirral

Outer London Boroughs Dagenham to Greenwich

Harrow to Sutton